For a number of different reasons I believe we're getting excellent value on the visitors in this situation:
Indiana has lost to Miami twice already this year; now healthier the Pacers are actually starting to win some games; the Pacers enter Tuesday searching for their fourth win in five games and will attempt to earn back-to-back road victories for the first time since Nov. 4-17.
The presence of leading scorer Danny Granger, who missed the previous trip to Miami with a torn right plantar fascia, could help in the opener of a three-game trip. Granger has averaged 25.0 points in his last two meetings with the Heat and scored 22 in a 96-83 home loss Oct. 30th; Indiana is 3-3 since Granger returned after going 5-11 while he was out.
The Pacers have been playing better ball lately, no doubt; 4-1 ATS their last five overall. They also have precedence on their side as they are 7-3 ATS their last ten on the road against the Heat.
On the other side of the court: Miami finished 3-3 on a season-high road-trek but it ended with a 98-80 loss to Oklahoma City on Saturday night; I expect another "letdown" this evening.
Kevin Durant scored 36 points on the most efficient shooting night of his career and also pulled down 10 rebounds as the Thunder beat the road-weary Heat 98-80 on Saturday night.
Also working against the Heat in this situation is the fact that Miami is just 5-11 ATS its last 16 in front of the home town crowd.
Bottom line: The Heat finished their longest road trip of the season, but are hardly done with a brutal stretch on their schedule. They get only this one-game reprieve in Florida before heading back on the road during a period when they play 19 of 24 games on the road; this will also be a distraction for this team tonight.
Behind improved play, and playing with the "double revenge" factor, look for INDIANA to improve to 2-2 ATS as a road dog of 3 1/2 to 6 points and for Miami to fall to 2-5 ATS as a home favorite of 3 1/2 to 6 points!
Nick bookiekiller parsons 1/19
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got to put some money on it