MAKE NOTE: The line on this game is either 7 or 7.5 right now, with a majority of the books holding firm on -7. My suggestion is you purchase the half point down to either 6.5 or 7, depending on what your book is offering. If the line is -7, then you're only to lay 6.5 points, and by the rare occurrence your line is 7.5, then you're to only lay the flat -7 points.
ANALYSIS: It's time for the Jets to get a dose of reality. The Chargers are the hottest team in football with 11 straight wins.
San Diego is rested and presents a far stronger challenge to the Jets than the heavily flawed Bengals did.
The betting line is manageable because the Jets are on a roll, led the NFL in defense and in rushing. The Chargers were 20th in stopping the run and 31st in rushing.
Judging by those overall numbers the game should be close.
But it won't be.
The Charges' run defense improved a great deal during the final two months. No team has held the Jets to fewer yards on the ground over the past two seasons than the Chargers have. San Diego limited New York to 41 yards rushing in a 49-29 win at home on Sept. 22, 2008
The Jets are going to need Mark Sanchez to make plays. I don't see that happening versus a San Diego defense than ranked 11th in pass defense. Antonio Cromartie and Quentin Jammer gave up the fifth-fewest yards (1,142) of any cornerback duo that started a combined 28 games or more this season. The Chargers’ defense allowed just 34 passes of 20 yards or more, third-fewest in the NFL.
San Diego's ground attack isn't as bad as it numbers may indicate either. Darren Sproles is one of the most dangerous change-of-pace backs and LaDainian Tomlinson still has something left in the tank when healthy. He's healthy now with fresh legs following two weeks of rest.
Philip Rivers, though, is the Chargers' big key. He has emerged as an upper echelon quarterback giving San Diego a huge edge at the most important position.
Rivers ranked third in the NFL with a 104.4 passer rating, while completing 65.2 percent of his attempts for 4,254 yards and 28 touchdowns. He has a number of big targets to go to, including Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates and underrated Malcom Floyd. Jets Pro Bowl cornerback Darrelle Revis can only cover one, probably Jackson.
San Diego has playoff pedigree and experience. This is the Chargers' fourth straight year in the playoffs. They are 4-1 against the spread in postseason action under Norv Turner.
This isn't an accident. Turner may not be the sharpest overall head coach, but the Chargers play more relaxed in the playoffs under him. This is a huge difference from when the Chargers reached the postseason under Marty Schottenheimer where they constantly wilted under the pressure playing too tight and suffering from Schottenheimer's frequent playoff brain cramps.
San Diego was one-and-done in the playoffs in 2004 and 2006 under Schottenheimer despite having strong teams and home-field advantage.
Only the Giants have won more playoff games during the two previous seasons than the Chargers have under Turner.
The Jets are going to find San Diego far more difficult to defend than a shot Carson Palmer with his pedestrian offense
Nover 1/17
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