Dr. Bob

NY Jets (+7) 18 SAN DIEGO 21
17-Jan-10 01:40 PM Pacific Time
If Mark Sanchez continues to avoid interceptions then the Jets may end up being Super Bowl champions this season. This New York team reminds me a lot of the Ravens team that won the Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer at quarterback. All Dilfer had to do was avoid turnovers and let his rushing attack and great defense do the rest - and that's all Sanchez has to do too. Sanchez threw 20 interceptions in his first 13 games of the season, but has thrown zero picks in each of the last 3 games. Sanchez can even afford to throw an interception and still win this game given how good the Jets' defense is.

New York's defense is the best in the NFL by far, allowing just 4.3 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average stop unit. However, the defense is even better than those numbers suggest, as the Jets' pass defense is the best I have ever seen in the games in which veteran cornerback Lito Sheppard was healthy and playing opposite of the NFL's best CB Darrelle Revis. Sheppard started only 3 games through week 11 (weeks 1, 2 and 6) and returned to the lineup for good in week 12. The Jets' pass defense has been incredible in those 10 games, allowing just 3.7 yppp to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.0 yppp against an average team. Even if I take out their week 17 domination of the Bengals (0 pass yards on 22 pass plays), the Jets' pass defense is still a mind blowing 2.2 yppp better than average - the best I have ever seen in the NFL. Mediocre and bad quarterbacks had no chance to throw against the Jets, but even very good quarterbacks were held in check. Houston's very good pass attack managed just 4.1 yards per pass play in week 1 and the Jets limited Tom Brady and the Patriots to just 4.6 yppp in week 2. Only Peyton Manning's 192 pass yards on 21 pass plays in week 16 blemished the Jets' incredible record, but the Jets were still 2.1 yppp better than average against those 3 great quarterbacks (5.4 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 7.5 yppp against an average defense)

San Diego's Philip Rivers had perhaps the best season of any quarterback, averaging 8.1 yppp against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback, but my math model projects a modest 6.0 yppp for Rivers in this game. The Chargers' rushing attack is terrible (3.5 ypr against teams that would allow 4.5 ypr to an average team) and my math model predicts just 3.3 ypr for San Diego in this game, so Rivers will have to play exceptionally well to move the ball on the Jets.

With the defense playing so well, Jets' coach Rex Ryan decided to rely on that defense and a good rushing attack while asking his rookie quarterback to take less chances in the passing game. That strategy should continue to work given San Diego's sub-par run defense (4.6 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.5 ypr against an average defense) and the Chargers' pass defense is just average, so I see no reason why the Jets can't continue to control the ball with their good rushing attack and play action passes. Sanchez threw the ball only 15 times last week, but he averaged 12.1 yards per pass play and has actually been better than average throwing the ball since top receiver Jerricho Cotchery returned from injury in week 8 after missing most of 3 games. Braylon Edwards was acquired in a trade with Cleveland while Cotchery was out and Sanchez has averaged 6.5 yppp with both receivers available to throw to (against teams that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average quarterback). I'm not assuming that Sanchez will continue to avoid interceptions as he's done in his last 3 games, but he should have a decent game against a mediocre Chargers' defense.

My math model projects the Jets to out-gain the Chargers 321 yards at 5.2 yards per play to 276 yards at 4.9 yppl in this game with the Chargers having a projected 0.5 turnover advantage. Overall, the math picks this game even despite 4.3 points of home field advantage. San Diego does apply to a 37-8 ATS playoff situation and that angle will keep me from making the Jets a Best Bet in this game. However, the line value favoring New York is more significant than the situation favoring the Chargers and I'll consider the Jets a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more and I'll lean with the Under at 41 points or higher.

Dallas (+2.5) 24 MINNESOTA 25
17-Jan-10 10:00 AM Pacific Time
Dallas is playing the best football in the NFC since free safety Ken Hamlin returned from injury to solidify the defense in week 14. It was week 14 that the Cowboys ended a 2 game losing streak with an upset road win against the unbeaten Saints and Dallas is 4-0 straight up and 4-0 ATS since then.

The Cowboys' pass defense was horrible without Hamlin keeping teams from going deep against them (they allowed 6.9 yards per pass play in 4 games without him), but Dallas rates at 0.9 yppp better than average with Hamlin in the lineup and their run defense is 0.2 ypr better than average. I rate Minnesota's offense at 0.6 yards per play better than average but that's only slightly better than a Dallas defense that is 0.5 yppl better than average with Hamlin in the lineup.

The Cowboys' offense has been outstanding this season, averaging 6.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team, and they have a big edge over a mediocre Vikings' defense that has surrendered 5.3 yppl to teams that would average just 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team.

Minnesota is not as good offensively or defensively as the Cowboys are and my math model projects Dallas with a 6.2 yppl to 5.7 yppl advantage in this game even with the additional home field advantage that home teams in this round of the playoffs have (due to the bye week). Even with the extra 1.5 points of home field advantage my math still picks this game even, so the line value favors the Cowboys. I'll lean with Dallas plus the points and I'll lean over the total.