Jeff Benton

RED ALERT!! ... RED ALERT!!

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60 DIME
NFL PLAYOFFS GAME OF THE YEAR

60 Dime: NEW YORK JETS (plus the points vs. Chargers)

Simply put, this is a terrible, terrible matchup for the San Diego Chargers. How can I say that about the hottest team in the NFL, one that is riding an 11-game winning streak? How can I say that when the Jets have to come all the way across the country and play in a hostile environment for the second straight week with a rookie quarterback? Because it’s true. Check the numbers.

The New York Jets had THE best rushing attack in the NFL in the regular season, averaging 172.2 yards per game (4.5 yards per carry), and they were right on that average last week (171 yards) in their 24-14 rout of the Bengals. What’s the Chargers’ Achilles heel on defense? Stopping the run. San Diego allows opposing backs to gain 117.6 ypg on the ground, which isn’t THAT bad … but the fact they allow 4.4 yards per carry is horrible. I know what you’re thinking: “Well, the Chargers will just commit extra defenders to the run and force Mark Sanchez to beat them.” You don’t think that was the Bengals game plan last week? You don’t think that’s been the game plan for every defense pretty much all season? Hasn’t worked out to well, has it? In fact, The Jets are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven games, and they’ve outrushed all seven opponents by yard margins of 107, 137, 186, 76, 16, 248 and 72.

Now flip things around. It’s no secret that the Chargers, despite the presence of future Hall-of-Famer LaDainian Tomlinson, can’t run a lick. Their 88.9 rushing ypg (3.3 ypc) ranks 31st out of the 32 teams in the league. San Diego’s offensive hopes now rely solely on the right arm of Philip Rivers. Make no mistake: Rivers and the Chargers’ passing game are deadly. However, they haven’t faced a pass defense as strong as the Jets, who were #1 in the NFL defending the pass (giving up a paltry 150.4 yards per game through the air and just EIGHT passing TDs all year!).

So let’s sum it up: The Jets run the ball better than any team in the league, and San Diego’s defense struggles to stop the run. Meanwhile, the Chargers can’t run the football and like to chuck it all over the field, but New York has the best pass defense (and the #1 shutdown cornerback in Darrelle Revis) in the league.

Thus I ask you: How in the world is New York catching a touchdown today? And in some spots MORE than a touchdown? My best guess is it has everything to do with Sanchez. Well, the kid proved last week that he’s a cool customer. No, he wasn’t asked to do too much (and he won’t be today, either), but he did make some very strong throws (in brutal weather conditions). Most importantly, he didn’t make any mistakes. In fact, you know how many interceptions Sanchez has thrown in his last three games? As many as you and me: Zero. If he continues that streak today, not only will the Jets cover this ridiculous pointspread, I promise you they’ll win this game outright!

A few final points to make: As noted above, the Jets are on a roll, winning three straight and six of seven (both SU and ATS). While that pales in comparison to San Diego’s 11-game winning streak, note that the Chargers prevailed by more than seven points just once in their last five games. In fact, the Chargers needed a 53-yard field goal in the waning seconds to beat the Bengals 27-24 at home three weeks ago – the same Bengals that New York just pummeled each of the last two weeks by scores of 37-0 (home) and 24-14 (road).

Also, San Diego has played 12 playoff games since 1993. Do you know how many of those 12 games the Chargers have won by more than six points? ONE! In fact, one of those 12 playoff games was in January 2005, when New York went to San Diego and stunned the Bolts 20-17 in overtime. Guess what the pointspread was that day? Chargers minus-7!

Bottom line, guys: This number is ludicrous. In fact, I made the Chargers a 4½-point favorite last Sunday when this matchup was set, and I thought that might’ve been a little high. And even though both favorites won and covered easily yesterday, that actually works in our favor, because odds are one of this week's three big favorites will not cover.

Fact is, the Jets are playing with a perfect mixture of confidence and cockiness right now; they match up extremely well against the finesse Chargers; and they’ve got a ton of trends pointing in their favor (they’ve won and cashed in four straight road games, and they’re on additional ATS runs 7-2 as an underdog, 9-3 as a road ‘dog, 5-1 in January and 4-1 against San Diego).

Even though it wouldn’t shock me in the least, I’m going to stop short of calling for an outright upset.

Prediction: San Diego 23, New York 20