BREAKDOWN: The Arizona Cardinals went 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS on the road this year. You know how many of those eight teams finished with a winning record? Zero. You know how many of those road games were played in a dome? Two: Detroit and St. Louis – not exactly going to the Superdome to face the rested and explosive Saints, is it? The Arizona Cardinals are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in the playoffs going back to the start of last year’s postseason. You know how many of those five games were played in an opponent’s stadium? One. That would be the second-round game at Carolina last year. Would you compare Carolina’s homefield advantage with New Orleans’? Of course not. And whatever homefield advantage the Panthers had evaporated immediately in that game with the piss-poor six-turnover performance by Jake Delhomme. You think Drew Brees will pull a Delhomme today? Please. … Fact is, this is THE toughest, most raucous venue the Cardinals have played in this year, and the most deafening hostile playoff environment any of the Arizona players have ever experienced.
The Cardinals and (and QB Kurt Warner in particular) are in for a rude-awakening today, and frankly, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Saints’ blitzing defense overwhelms the Cardinals’ protection schemes (which will be slow off the ball because of the crowd noise), gets to Warner and knocks him out of this game – which would mean a Matt Leinart sighting! … Love the fact that the entire betting world is on Arizona in this game, too. It’s the typical “remember what we saw last” syndrome (meaning they watched the Cardinals upset Green Bay last week, and they haven’t seen the Saints play a solid game in more than a month). Brees is going to carve up the Cardinals’ defense even worse than Aaron Rodgers did last week, and New Orleans win this thing going away.
Cardinals-Saints UNDER
BREAKDOWN: Playing the percentages here, as this is THE highest total ever for an NFL playoff game. It’s this high because of that Packers-Cardinals 51-45 shootout last week, which automatically inflated this number by a good three points (if not more). … Prior to last week, the Cardinals had played just one game all year that had more than 55 combined points (41-21 at Chicago). Meanwhile, the Saints’ last three games had final scores of 24-17 (home), 20-17 (home) and 23-10 (road). Also, only one of New Orleans’ last nine games had more than 55 combined points (and that was a wild 33-30 overtime game at Washington that had a fluke play for a TD). … The Saints’ defense got criticized down the stretch, but the fact is if you take out the Redskins game, it gave up 24 points or less in each of its final eight games. Also, New Orleans stayed under the total in its last four contests and six of the last seven, and prior to last week, Arizona had been on a 6-1 “under” run. … This is another go-against-the-public play – much the same as I went against the public in that Monday Night Football game between the Patriots and Saints in New Orleans several weeks ago. I told you that night the 57-point total was inflated by three points. Final score: 38-17 New Orleans. I predict the EXACT same score in this one!
Chuck O'Brien
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