Doc's NBA 1/15 - GAME OF MONTH
4-Unit Play #801 Take San Antonio/Charlotte UNDER 189 (7 p.m. EST, Friday)
The under is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings. Although the last two meetings have gone over, one only reached 186 (last season) and in one meeting this season these teams combined to score 189 in a 104-85 Spurs victory. That game was in San Antonio and to say the Spurs were efficient offensively in that game would be an understatement. The Spurs not only shot 59 percent from the field in that game, they shot 59 percent from beyond the three-point line. That’s a full 10 percentage points over their normal season average. That they only scored 104 points here tells us a little but about what the pace should be like in this game. Not a lot of shots will be made and there will be some good defense on both sides. Charlotte won’t allow 59 percent shooting this time around, we are certain about that – they allow only 43 percent shooting at home and opponents score only 90 points on average on this floor. These are two Top 5 defenses (Charlotte is No. 1 for points allowed, the Spurs are No. 5).
3-Unit Play #813 Take Indiana -3 Over New Jersey (8 p.m. EST, Friday)
Normally we shy away from road favorites but we think a play is warranted here. The Pacers are finally getting healthy and they have seemed to gel recently and are looking for a three-game winning streak here. They looked pretty impressive in recent wins against Phoenix and Toronto. Both of those wins have been at home and the Pacers have struggled on the road this season but they have just as many road wins as the Nets have in any venue home or away this season and we don’t see the Nets as having any real home-court advantage here. Last time out the Nets were home against Boston and the Celtics built a 36-point lead by halftime and then went on cruise control the rest of the game but that one was sure ugly and shows the pride that the Nets are playing with right now. Although also terrible on defense, this team just can’t put anything together offensively. This team has averaged only 87 points per game over the course of their last six games and the Indiana offense has been playing well, scoring more than 100 in four straight games (they have averaged 107 PPG over the course of their last five). The Pacers have covered three straight and four of their last five and they have won five of the last six in the series, covering the number in every win.
6-Unit NBA Game of the Month Take Milwaukee/Golden State OVER 216 1/2 (10:30 p.m. EST, Friday)
Love the over tonight as we had this game circled for about a week. We thought the bookies would post a too-low number here and we were expecting this one to come in around 223-224. This series has a history of high-scoring games as 8 of the last 11 meetings have gone over the posted total. These teams have averaged 250 points in the last two meetings, including the noteworthy first meeting between the clubs this season where Bucks rookie Brandon Jennings dropped 55 points on the Warriors in a 129-125 Milwaukee win. We thought this line would be posted low since the Bucks have been struggling to score lately. However, they have had two consecutive high-scoring games. They bounced back from a 15-point first quarter to score 101 in a loss to Phoenix (they shot only 39 percent from the field in that game and will surely have a much better average against Golden State) and they managed 108 on the road against a stout Portland defense that is No. 4 overall in the NBA defensively, They have played many defensive teams lately and that is a main reason for their offensive struggles. Not many teams are going to score a lot against the Lakers, Orlando, Charlotte and San Antonio. The Warriors are nowhere near that caliber on defense. Actually, they are the worst defensive team in the NBA while possessing the No. 2 offense. This team gives up an average of 112 points per game and they also score that same average on offense on their home court. We think both teams push the temp and Jennings and fellow rookie Stephen Curry for the Warriors will be guarding each other and you know each one will want to put on a performance after the results of the last game. The Warriors have a long injury list like they do all season but they always seem to manage to put up points and their short roster normally offers tired defenders and contributes to more points from the opposition. The over is 12-5 for totals posted at over 195 for the Bucks while the Warriors haven’t had a total posted under 200 this season yet the over is still above .500 at 19-18 even when shackled with some very high numbers. The Warriors last two games were against some more defensive-oriented teams in Miami and Cleveland yet the numbers for both totals were not too much lower than the number for tonight’s game. Milwaukee is a middle-of-the-pack defensive team and they have shown they can get their offense going against this Golden State defense.
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Originally Posted by julio_cat
