[dooders2]

Play is on St. Marys CA -4.

Bought paid and confirmed.

[edge323]

thanks.. love the pick!

[nWo]

Bet: #566 Saint Mary's CA -4.5

The "sharps" hit this one almost right away. This line opened at Saint Mary's -3 and was hit within minutes, pushing it to -3.5. And just minutes after that it was hit again, pushing it to -4. And that line move is despite the fact that most of the bets coming in have been on Gonzaga, including money-line bets and exotics. I'm disappointed that I missed out on the -4, but I feel we still have a strong play at -4.5.

Gonzaga has only played two true road games this season, and they were beaten by Michigan State in their only big road test. St. Mary's has been extremely tough at home, and I like the fact that the Gaels are one of very few teams that can match Gonzaga's size. St. Mary's actually has the 4th-best effective height rating in thenation at +5.3, which tops the Bulldogs' #13 ranking at +3.9.

When looking at Gonzaga's road performances compared to Saint Mary's home performances, I see several huge edges for the Gaels. First, the Gaels score 87.8 ppg on 52.2% shooting at home, and they'll be going against a Gonzaga road defense allowing 76.5 ppg on 47% shooting. But Gonzaga's road offense, which averages 76 points on 41.7% shooting, would face a Gaels' home defense allowing only 64.1 ppg on just 40% shooting. Even if we look at overall numbers, Saint Mary's holds edges in rebound margin, free-throw shooting, and 3-point shooting.

Bottom line: The "sharps" definitely have their money on the Gaels. And looking at the stats from these two teams, I can see why. Gonzaga's #14 ranking is just a bull's eye for the unranked Gaels. And having the game on national TV (ESPN2) only adds to the Gaels' motivation. Lay it with Saint Mary's.

[klane2041]

Play is on St. Marys CA -4.

Bought paid and confirmed.

Or from his news letter. Still confirmed.