One of the strongest long-term patterns in the NBA has been the difficulties the Spurs continue to have in back-to-back settings, with the run at 28-45 ATS over the last 4+ seasons (you might see 27-46 from other tracking’s, but we credit them for an underdog cover in a game that they lost in O.T.). The key for our purposes is that the oddsmakers have not adjusted for this, largely because when teams of this caliber are involved there is always going to be public money for them anyway, and that the real reasons for the slide in the role are not fully understood. So in a most favorable price range we get to play again here.
Our take on the back-to-back failures has nothing to do with the advancing age of Tim Duncan and other key cogs, but the fact that one of the prime reasons for their success through the years has been the ability of Gregg Popovich to game plan for an opponent. When Popovich has a full day or more to prepare he may be the very best in the NBA at putting the X’s and O’s together, but when that time is taken away, they suddenly become a much lesser team. And that is what we have here. Off of a major home win on Tuesday against the Lakers there is precious little turnaround time for this challenge, and note that despite the big final margin the game was not put away until the latter stages, with Duncan having to toil 39:48. That takes a toll on him for this one, and with Tony Parker dealing with plantar fasciitis, which is going to make back-to-back nights awkward for him as the season progresses, this is a much more vulnerable team than the markets are projecting.
It is more than just the back-to-back nights that is being missed in this line, but the fact that San Antonio has played the softest schedule in the league to this point. The Spurs have had one road game against a winning team in the last five weeks, a 12-point loss at Phoenix, and are just 1-5 SU on the road against winning teams this season. Now a rested and ready Oklahoma City team that is only playing for the third time in seven days, having only faced the weak Pacers and Knicks in that span, can take full advantage, and with a 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS run in the last four meetings in the series the confidence is there to get the job done.
Dave Malinsky 1/13
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