Ferringo 1/10/10....
1.5-Unit Play. Take #813 Xavier (-4) over George Washington (Noon, Sunday, Jan. 10)
I’m not going to overthink this one. Xavier has played great against one of the best schedules in the country. They have been playing quality, tournament-caliber teams for the last six weeks, and GW now represents one of the weaker teams that they have played. GW has played exactly two games against teams ranked in the Top 110 (Providence and Harvard) and they lost them both by double digits. Xavier has already played six games against the Top 60, and they have win over Cincy, they got robbed at Butler, and a double-overtime loss at Wake Forest. From top-to-bottom, Xavier is a better team.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #828 Denver (-1) over Western Kentucky (3 p.m.)
Western Kentucky is trying to sweep the toughest three-game portion on their slate. I don’t think that they pull it off. They managed to beat Miss. State in a garbage game and then they fluked out a win at South Alabama. In reality, they shouldn’t have won either of those games. Denver is great at home (10-1) and are a bit undervalued here.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #833 Kansas (-4.5) over Tennessee (4:30 p.m.)
I have not seen that Tennessee has reinstated the three players (Goins, Tatum, Williams) that are on indefinite suspension. We know that Tyler Smith isn’t coming back. So let’s look at this: Tennessee is hosting the No. 1 team in the country without four of its top eight players. Now, if UT has a full roster I think that the line on this game would have been UT -2 or maybe -2.5. I just still think that losing that significant of a number of top players is going to have a bigger impact than just six points’ worth. I know: I used the same rationale while going with Charlotte – in the face of an equally stiff line movement – earlier this week. Well, this is where capping comes in. If you watched that Charlotte game you would have seen a team (Charlotte) that played about as horrendous of basketball as you could play. Ill-advised 25-foot shots just 10 seconds into the possession, terrible defense, no real rebounding or inside presence, etc. On top of that, Tennessee played – by far – the best it could possibly play with the guys that they had. They shot about 60 percent for the game and started off hitting 50 percent of their 3-point shots. Again, a big part of that was the shockingly bad Charlotte defense. Part of that was just UT feeding off the vibe. Well, unlucky for them, Kansas just got a bad scare from Cornell this week so the Jayhawks should be on their guard and should come into a hostile environment ready to play their best game. I’m sorry, but the second- and third-string players for the Volunteers should not be good enough to beat the No. 1 team in the country. And that’s what it’s going to take to beat this number. Kansas is 8-3 ATS on the road and 35-16-2 TS in its last 52 games overall. They should be able to smother the Vols on the perimeter (at least they will defend them better than they defended Cornell) and Kansas will take advantage of its size on the interior. They should pound the ball inside and try to get the Tennessee frontcourt players (all three of them) in foul trouble. If Chism or Prince get in trouble this game will get ugly. Kansas went to Temple and beat the Top-25 Owls by 32. Tennessee is better than that, but it just shows that when the Jayhawks hit the jets they can be that good. Kansas wins by 11 tonight despite a game Vols effort.
2-Unit Play. Take #816 Rhode Island (-2) over Temple (1 p.m.)
Here we have another unranked team favored over a ranked opponent. And I think that Rhode Island may be better than Temple flat out. All of Temple’s good wins have come at home and they are fresh off a 27-point blowout over feeble St. Joseph’s. I think that puts them in prime letdown mode. Rhode Island has beaten Providence, Boston College, Oklahoma State and won at Akron (which is tougher than it sounds). They have been playing really good ball over the last month and they have the size and the scoring to really give the Owls some problems. I think that home court makes the difference here.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #840 Maryland (-4) over Florida State (5:30 p.m.)
I don’t like the fact that Florida State has only played two games (against real candy corn competition) since Dec. 22. That’s two games in 19 days. The home team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings and Maryland has covered three straight. They have revenge for a tough OT loss at FSU last year and I think that this Maryland team has more firepower behind it than FSU. Maryland has a chance to be a top tier ACC team this year. But to do so they have to win games like this. Greivis Vasquez has started to shoot the ball much better and I think he’s set to have a strong game.
1-Unit Play. Take #823 LaSalle (-1) over Massachusetts (2 p.m.)
LaSalle is a dumb-ass team. They do dumb things and even though they have all of the pieces and should be good, they are not. They have been an utter disappointment over the last two years and if anyone is waiting for them to “turn the corner” or “live up to their potential” they aren’t going to do it. So why play on them today? Because Massachusetts has one win (Memphis) over teams ranked in the Top 240. Other than that they have beaten teams like No. 310 Fordham (by two points), No. 340 Grambling, No. 309 St. Francis and other trash teams. Any time they have played someone decent (Rutgers, Seton Hall, BC, Davidson, Central Florida) they have gotten smoked. Their home court will give them a nice edge tonight. But LaSalle is the better team. They are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings and they
0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #831 Valparaiso (+21) over Wright State (4 p.m.) AND Take #850 Oregon (-3.5) over Oregon State (10:30 p.m.)
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Originally Posted by Heandog
