Marc Lawrence

Baltimore +3.5

The Ravens and Patriots meet for the 2nd time this season at Gillette Stadium, the site where New England beat Baltimore, 27-21. as 2-point favorites the first week in October. The Ravens are 7-4 SU and ATS in post-season play this decade, including 5-0 SU and ATS away from Baltimore in non-division games. The Ravens have been especially competitive under John Harbaugh, the second-year coach who has compiled a solid 22-13 SU and 22-12-1 ATS record during his tenure. When facing a team off a loss, Harbaugh is a stunning 13-1 SU and 12-2 ATS in that role, including 9-0 ATS when his team is off a win. While Bill Belichick is 14-5 SU in his playoff career, he is only 9-9-1 versus the number. Furthermore, the loss of WR Wes Welker is crucial as he is Tom Brady's main possession receiver. A closer look at the tale of the tape shows a New England team that was 7-0 SU against .444 or less opposition, but only 3-6 SU when squaring off against .450 or better competition this season. On the other hand, Baltimore is a staggering 17-2 SU and 15-3-1 ATS when they square off against .625 or less opponents under Harbaugh, including 9-1 SU and 9-0-1 ATS when the Ravens are playing off a win. Going up against a New England defense that surrendered more than 400 yards in four of its final eight games of the season, look for the Ravens to pull the surprise here today. We recommend a 3-unit play on Baltimore