For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "over":
Pro Bowl safety Ed Reed will be playing in a limited roll today; a damaged nerve in his neck has hindered Reed over the past two seasons, but it was hip, ankle and groin injuries that kept him out of four December games.
Baltimore got offensive tackle Jared Gaither back after he missed a month due to a foot injury; with Gaither in the lineup, Baltimore had one of its best rushing games of the season, gaining 240 yards. Even with QB Joe Flacco making progress in his second season, the Ravens remain committed to running the ball; Ray Rice has been outstanding in his second season, rushing for 1,339 yards and seven TDs while leading the team with 78 receptions and he’s complemented by Willis McGahee.
It's interesting to point out that Baltimore has seen the total go "over" the posted number in all three road games they played this year as a road dog of 3 1/2 points or less.
On the other side of the field: Wes Welker was lost to injury last weekend; I expect rookie Julian Edelman, who has a similar skill set, to fill the roll adequately, but for Tom Brady's other offensive stars to step-up and fill the void. Keep in mind that in the two games Welker sat out and in the season finale, Edelman had a combined 21 catches for 221 yards.
Randy Moss has 83 catches for 1,264 yards and finished in a three-way tie for the league lead in TD's with 13; while he's assured of seeing plenty of double-teams, expect him to make a couple of big plays.
With RBs Sammy Morris, Laurence Maroney and Fred Taylor healthy, the Patriots have the option of attacking Baltimore with a three-pronged attack.
On the other side of the ball though; New England has looked anything but its normal defensive self this year and that lack of play was clearly evident in last weeks 34-27 loss to Houston. Teams are no longer in awe of this defensive corps and I expect it to struggle again against an improved Baltimore squad.
New England has seen the total go "over" the posted number in three of five contests when playing against a team with a winning record.
Bottom line: Brady is nursing an assortment of injuries, but certainly nothing as devastating as the season-ending torn knee ligaments he suffered in the 2008 opener. On Wednesday, he was named The Associated Press 2009 NFL Comeback Player of the Year.
This number is simply too low; when taking all of the above into account, the sharp money in this one is on the OVER!
*10* PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR *10*
*** MA$$IVE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY *** Parsons had an unbelievable regular season campaign. (easily nailing his "BLOWOUT G.O.Y on the Saints over the Pats on Nov. 30th) There is one play this weekend which is SO POWERFUL, that it qualifies as Nick's one and only *10* PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR! You in?!
10* Arizona Cardinals
#1 "Top Play" Ravens/Patriots O/U ROUT!
Parsons was 3-3-1 overall yesterday, dropping his play on the Bengals, but easily bringing home the bacon with the Cowboys. Nick will look to sweep-the-board today and is absolutely confident that he's got the correct totals call in the early game; join Nick with his #1 "Top Play" Ravens/Patriots O/U ROUT! Go get it!
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons 1/10
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