B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G 01/10
6* W ido w W iseg uy Packers/Cards Wild Card G AM E OF THE Y EA R on Green Bay +3(-135 at bodog)
The Packers represent our top selection in the Wild Card round as they travel to the Cardinals Sunday. Once again, we are not basing this selection on their 33-7 victory over the Cardinals in Arizona in their season finale, but more on how they have played the second half of the season. The Packers are 7-1 S.U. & 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games, with their only loss coming on a last-second miracle by the Pittsburgh Steelers, 36-37. Green Bay is hitting on all cylinders right now, and they are the most dangerous Wild Card team in the playoffs. Defensively, they own the #2 ranked defense in the league at 284 yards/game, and they have held 6 of their last 8 opponents to 17 points or less. Offensively, they are putting up 28.8 points/game including 30.2 points/game on the road. We all know they have one of the best passing games in the league behind Aaron Rodgers and a plethora of talented receivers, but the key to their success lately is that they've found a running game. Ryan Grant is carrying the load, but Brandon Jackson and Ahman Green are help keeping him fresh by contributing when they get the chance. Arizona is facing some serious injury problems heading into this one. WR Anquan Boldin is questionable after spraining his MCL and dealing with a bum ankle, while CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is questionable with a knee injury as well. DE Calais Cambell is also questionable with an injured thumb. All of these guys will be slowed even if they do go. Arizona has become one-dimensional offensively, and the Packers will feast on the Cardinals because of it. The Cardinals average just 93.1 rushing yards/game, so Green Bay can pin their ears back and get after the immobile Kurt Warner all game long. Green Bay has held 5 of their last 6 opponents to less than 200 yards passing, and for the season they allow just 201 passing yards/game. Green Bay has the more balanced offense and a better defense, and they are the clear choice in this match-up Sunday. The Packers are 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games over the last 3 seasons. Green Bay is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) against NFC West division opponents over the last 3 seasons. Take Green Bay and the points. (This is still a 6* play at +1 or on the Money Line, whatever you want because they will win outright)
5* W iseg uy Ravens/Pats AFC W ild Card S uref ire on New England -3(-105 at bodog)
This line started at Patriots -4 and it's already down to -3. The betting public is all over the Ravens due to the injury to Wes Welker, and though he is a big part of their offense, we still feel strongly about New England finding a way to win at home. The fact is that since Bill Belichick took over the Patriots, he has never lost an opening round game in the playoffs. This team still has a stout defense that can carry the load, and they still have plenty of playmakers on offense to score enough points to win. Look at it this way, would you rather have Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton or Randy Moss and Julian Edelman as your receivers? We'll take the latter every time because Moss is a game-changer, and Edelman has had an entire season to grasp the offense, and is basically the same player as Welker. New England is 8-0 at home this season, while the Ravens are 3-5 on the road. This is a very tough place to play, and it has shown once again this season. The Patriots are scoring 31.2 points/game at home while allowing just 12.9 points/game, outscoring their opponents by 18.3 points/game. Welker will certainly be missed, but his injury is getting blown way out of proportion. Also note that New England will be getting back D-Linemen Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren for this game, two of the best players on their defense. The Patriots are 21-4 ATS (+16.6 Units) when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) in the second half of the season since 1992. The clear value here is with New England. Take the Patriots and lay the points.
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Originally Posted by Ball Picker
