Steve Budin 100 Dime Max Play
Steven Budin-CEO SATURDAY'S PICK COSTA RICA CONNECTION
100 DIME RELEASE
Cincinnati on the MONEY LINE
Note from Steve:
As I've told you before, when I refer to my "Costa Rica Connection," the source is actually a head clerk at one of the top three offshore sportsbooks. Obviously I can't tell you which one, but rest assured every wise guy in the country plays into this office. And I know this guy because I trained him when he used to work for me years ago at my book and we've remained close ever since.
This play, as you can see, is a MONEYLINE release. Right now, Cincinnati is anywhere from -135 to -140 on the moneyline offshore and in Vegas. So, betting the Bengals at these prices would be no different than betting a low-priced favorite in baseball.
Also, consider why this is such a typical wiseguy move: The pointspread for this game has been floating between 2 1/2 and 3 all week. Typically, the home favorite in these cases will settle at 3 by kickoff and most local bookies will go ahead and price it at -3 anyway. And thus smart players would then buy down the 1/2 point to 2 1/2 - which is what I would obviously recommend as well - at a price of -130 (which is what the going rate is nowadays when you're buying around the number 3 offshore and in Vegas and sportsbooks continue to squeeze you). But rather than buying insurance at -130 and worrying about the pointspread at all, these sharps are instead simply taking Cincinnati on the Moneyline at a slightly bigger price of approximately -135 or -140.
Here's another way of looking at it: Instead of buying down the half-point at a cost of -130 and still laying 2 1/2 points on the Bengals, they are getting a "3-point discount," making it a pick-em game at a cost of about -135 or -140. It's really an incredibly simple and effective strategy.
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