The 2009 college football comes to a close in Pasadena when No. 1 ranked Alabama meets No. 2 Texas in a matchup of undefeated teams playing for all the national championship. Next to TCU, the Tide’s defense ranks No. 2 in the land, holding four foes to season low yards. Heisman Trophy RB Mark Ingram, star WR Julio Jones and SR QB Greg McElroy key the offense. Ingram carries the burden of the Heisman, as these teams are 3-15 SU and 2-16 ATS when facing an opponent that allows less than 17 PPG on the season. This year’s Tide team will attempt to do something no other Alabama team has done in its school history, namely beat a Texas team on the gridiron, where the Longhorns are 7-0-1 SU all-time in this series. From our powerful database we learn that BCS bowl games involving teams that scored 30 or less points in their last game facing an opponent that scored more than 30 points in its last game are 22-7 ATS, including 11-0 SU and ATS if they allow less than 19 PPG on the season and the opponent won 10 or more game during the regular season last year. We also note that the dog in AP No. 1 versus No. 2 games is 19-6 ATS in games since 1985. Finally, two-time Heisman runnerup QB Colt McCoy closes out a spectacular career, sporting a 20-3 SU mark as a starter for Texas. With Texas off its worst game of the season and Alabama off its best, we’ll call for a reversal of fortune here tonight. We recommend a 4-unit play on Texas.
Marc Lawrence 1/7
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