[dooders2]

5* GOY. Texas +4 Bodog is using +4.5

[craigs]

Hey thanks for posting this dooders2.

[Smurfer1]

Thanks Doody!!!

[mav2112]

Vegas Runner and Marco have the same side right???

[lacesout]

Yep

[pencey99]

i know its not as big of a deal...but is VR doin anything else on his card today....maybe a bookie bill play on BBall or something?!?! anyone know???
thanks!!

[owl]

A bookie bill play would definitely be a much bigger deal

Good to see that he is back in your good graces. Hope you did not stay away during his 3-0.

[owl]

Thanks dooders.

[pencey99]

so is this VRs only play tonight???

[dooders2]

He will have more plays tonight but usually doesn't release them til 6:30 PM EST.

[smartbets]

why would he release this so early when he normally releases everything round 6:30 pm est during the week in football/basketball season????

[edack7]

Copied from another site

vegas-runner | CFB Side Thu, 01/07/10 - 8:10 PM

triple-dime bet 267 Texas 4.0 (-110) Bodog vs 268 Alabama
Analysis:

***** CFB BCS CHAMPIONSHIP 5* BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR *****

Bodog is using +4.5...And the reason that we decided to pass along this Bet early, is because I have heard that there is an extremely sharp Betting Syndicate who is considering a HUGE POSITION on TEXAS...The Wiseguys are already the reason that this number has come back down, from a high of "6"...even though the betting public is betting Alabama heavy...And more importantly, the sportsbooks claim to have a lot of "pending" parlays and teasers on that Alabama side...So even with all that public money, I feel that if this line goes up...then the Outfits will come through and BUY some more Texas...

Bottom Line here once again is TRUE VALUE...The point-spread is definitely based on nothing more than "public perception"...Proof of that is that fact that the Oddsmakers Poll had TEXAS above Alabama for almost the entire season, with Florida on top...And most sharps had Texas as a 1pt fav on a neutral site before those Championship Games...So I can promise y…ou that they didn't adjust their Ratings almost "5.5" full points...Or worse, "7" pts when this line was up to 6....

So regardless the outcome...we know going in that we are definitely getting the best of it as far as the line goes...Now that don't always guarantee a winner, but it does guarantee long-term success...Because if you can continue to put your money down, when you are getting the best of it...and employ proper money management...the books will NEVER be able to beat you over time...

But right now...this is only about 1 game...Tonight's game...And I truly believe that we are on the right side...Now let me tell you why..

Alabama accomplished a HUGE GOAL of beating Florida and capturing the SEC Title...While Texas is still 1 win away from their main goal for this season...It's the reason Colt McCoy and so many others returned for their senior season...

More importantly...After beating Florida the way they did...and seeing how Texas barely even got into this game...I think Alabama is coming in a bit too confident, and you just can't do that when your opponent is just as talented, if not more talented than you are...

Next, I love the fact that we have a SR QB, going up against a JR QB, who made only "11" attempts as a Sophomore...And I think it will be extremely difficult for McElroy to even come close to doing what he did in that SEC Championship Game...

So for TEXAS, it's going to come down to stopping Ingram...And they are the "#1" DEFENSE AGAINST the RUN in College Football this year...And on the flip side, the only way you can get to the Alabama...is through the air...and that's something that I expect McCoy to be able to do...

Texas will come in with a chip on their shoulders and something to prove, because many say they shouldn't even be here...And we've seen that they are "27-13" (68% ATS) as a DOG...which supports the fact that they come to play when expected to lose...

In the end, I just feel that this is too much Value to pass up...and that the situation favors us as well...I expect an extremely close game...And when I can get over a FG, in a spot like this, I'm willing to step up and fire my biggest UNIT amount...VR

*** With that said fellas...You have to always practice money management because the truth is, the very best sports bettors will cash their best bets maybe 60% of the time long-term...So please make sure that you wager accordingly***

[edack7]

Copied from another site

vegas-runner | CFB Side Thu, 01/07/10 - 8:10 PM

triple-dime bet 267 Texas 4.0 (-110) Bodog vs 268 Alabama
Analysis:

***** CFB BCS CHAMPIONSHIP 5* BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR *****

Bodog is using +4.5...And the reason that we decided to pass along this Bet early, is because I have heard that there is an extremely sharp Betting Syndicate who is considering a HUGE POSITION on TEXAS...The Wiseguys are already the reason that this number has come back down, from a high of "6"...even though the betting public is betting Alabama heavy...And more importantly, the sportsbooks claim to have a lot of "pending" parlays and teasers on that Alabama side...So even with all that public money, I feel that if this line goes up...then the Outfits will come through and BUY some more Texas...

Bottom Line here once again is TRUE VALUE...The point-spread is definitely based on nothing more than "public perception"...Proof of that is that fact that the Oddsmakers Poll had TEXAS above Alabama for almost the entire season, with Florida on top...And most sharps had Texas as a 1pt fav on a neutral site before those Championship Games...So I can promise y…ou that they didn't adjust their Ratings almost "5.5" full points...Or worse, "7" pts when this line was up to 6....

So regardless the outcome...we know going in that we are definitely getting the best of it as far as the line goes...Now that don't always guarantee a winner, but it does guarantee long-term success...Because if you can continue to put your money down, when you are getting the best of it...and employ proper money management...the books will NEVER be able to beat you over time...

But right now...this is only about 1 game...Tonight's game...And I truly believe that we are on the right side...Now let me tell you why..

Alabama accomplished a HUGE GOAL of beating Florida and capturing the SEC Title...While Texas is still 1 win away from their main goal for this season...It's the reason Colt McCoy and so many others returned for their senior season...

More importantly...After beating Florida the way they did...and seeing how Texas barely even got into this game...I think Alabama is coming in a bit too confident, and you just can't do that when your opponent is just as talented, if not more talented than you are...

Next, I love the fact that we have a SR QB, going up against a JR QB, who made only "11" attempts as a Sophomore...And I think it will be extremely difficult for McElroy to even come close to doing what he did in that SEC Championship Game...

So for TEXAS, it's going to come down to stopping Ingram...And they are the "#1" DEFENSE AGAINST the RUN in College Football this year...And on the flip side, the only way you can get to the Alabama...is through the air...and that's something that I expect McCoy to be able to do...

Texas will come in with a chip on their shoulders and something to prove, because many say they shouldn't even be here...And we've seen that they are "27-13" (68% ATS) as a DOG...which supports the fact that they come to play when expected to lose...

In the end, I just feel that this is too much Value to pass up...and that the situation favors us as well...I expect an extremely close game...And when I can get over a FG, in a spot like this, I'm willing to step up and fire my biggest UNIT amount...VR

*** With that said fellas...You have to always practice money management because the truth is, the very best sports bettors will cash their best bets maybe 60% of the time long-term...So please make sure that you wager accordingly***

[smartbets]

thanks - that explains the early releas time...

[owl]

NBA "TRUE STEAM" for THURSDAY 1-7-09 :
1.) OVER 197 CHA/NYK....Total Now 199
This is actually a total that I had circled because I felt that based on the last 2 meetings between these 2 teams, the oddsmakers would be forced to over-adjust, due to "public perception"...rather than "true strength"...Because if you look at the current form for BOTH of these teams, you will notice that their Offenses are clicking (Both Teams FG% has INCREASED Over L/5 Games)...And when the books hung the Total up, only 1Pt higher than they did for the last meeting...I expected to see the Wiseguys take a strong position, if my Ratings/Numbers were accurate...
Fortunately, I wasn't disappointed...Just the opposite...And although the Outfits left the Total alone when the number went up last night...today is a different story...What you need to always remember is that the Opening Lines Off-Shore have "Low Limits"...Especially when you are flagged as a "Wiseguy"...So it becomes advantageous for the Betting Syndicates to wait until more books offer a line on the game they are looking to bet...Especially when it's a Total, which the limits for are almost always lower to begin with...
That's what happened here...as the Wiseguys showed up bright and early to blast the OVER in this match-up...They hit it at 197, 197.5, 198, & 198.5...And that's when the sportsbooks decided that they have had enough...and went ahead and adjusted this line up to 200...Well after the Outfits had taken a huge position on the Total...VR
LINE PREDICTION : Because we've seen so many NBA games fall very close to the total offered, the Betting Syndicates always see "value" in working a "middle" on Totals...In fact, this practice even forced books like MGM/Mirage to use a ML on Totals...in an effort to turn-off "middle seekers"...This is why I believe that we are now seeing 199 & 199.5 all across the board...And although it won't receive much "volume", I do feel that the betting public will be split on the Total for this game...So they shouldn't provide any added pressure for the books on this Total...With that said, barring another "Buy-Order" on the OVER...which is definitely not out of the question, since according to my "Line"...there is still plenty of value on the OVER...we probably won't see too much movement...VR
I do expect that this will be on my Card for Tonight...Because like I said above, there really is still some more value on the OVER for us to take advantage of...And with all the attention on the BCS Championship game, I think that we will be able to get some added value in NBA & CBB tonight...
Thanks again for your continued support, and best of luck...Vegas-Runner.

[canuck]

2* late steam FLA ATL