Two schools that just missed out on the opportunity to play for the national championship a year ago get that chance tonight as top-ranked Alabama squares off against the No. 2 Longhorns in the BCS Championship Game at the Rose Bowl.
Texas barely squeaked into this contest, getting a last-second 46-yard field goal that snuck just inside the left upright as time expired to upend Nebraska 13-12 in the Big 12 championship game back on Dec. 5. In the victory, the Longhorns – who never threatened to cover as a 14-point chalk – gained just 202 yards (including 18 rushing yards on 38 carries), and star QB Colt McCoy was sacked a career-high nine times and threw three interceptions and no TD passes. However, the defense stepped up as it has all season, limiting Nebraska to a paltry 106 total yards (67 rushing, 39 passing), two third-down conversions and five first downs, while recording three interceptions.
Unlike their opponent tonight, the Crimson Tide punched their ticket to the BCS Championship Game in emphatic fashion, crushing then-No. 1 Florida 32-13 as a five-point underdog to win the SEC championship Dec. 5. In ending the Gators’ national-best 22-game winning streak and their hopes for a repeat national championship, Alabama boasted eye-popping edges of 490-335 in total yards, 251-88 in rushing yards, 26-13 in first downs and 39:37-20:23 in time of possession. Star RB Mark Ingram, who would win Alabama’s first Heisman Trophy a week later, rushed for 113 yards and three TDs in helping his team avenge a 31-20 loss to Florida in the 2008 SEC championship game that kept Alabama out of last year’s BCS title contest.
Texas is back in the BCS Championship Game for the second time and the first since the 2005 season, when Vince Young led the Longhorns to a thrilling 38-35 upset win of USC as a seven-point underdog in a game that was also played at the Rose Bowl. Texas is seeking its fifth national championship.
Alabama can lay claim to its 12th national championship with a victory tonight, the most recent coming in 1992. That year, the Crimson Tide knocked off top-ranked Miami 34-13 as an eight-point underdog in the Sugar Bowl to finish off a 13-0 campaign.
Teams from the SEC have won the last three BCS title games both SU and ATS. The favorite has won and covered the last two years following a 4-1 SU and ATS run by the underdog. The winner has covered in all 11 BCS Championship Games.
Tonight marks the ninth time these college football powerhouses have met, with Texas dominating the rivalry with a 7-0-1 record. However, the most recent meeting came way back in the 1982 Cotton Bowl, which the Longhorns won 14-12 as a 1½-point underdog. The average final score in the previous eight meetings – five coming in bowl games – was 16-8.
Alabama is in its 58th bowl game, by far the most in the nation, and its 31 bowl victories are tied for first with USC. However, after losing to Florida in last year’s SEC title game, the Crimson Tide failed to show up in the BCS Sugar Bowl and got rolled by undefeated Utah 31-17 as a 10-point favorite. ‘Bama coach Nick Saban is 4-6 SU and ATS in bowl games (1-1 SU and ATS with the Tide), and this storied program is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight postseason contests.
Texas ranks second to the Crimson Tide with 49 postseason appearances. Last year in the BCS Fiesta Bowl, the Longhorns got a touchdown with 16 seconds left to rally past Ohio State 24-21, but failed to cover as an eight-point favorite, falling to 3-7 ATS in their last 10 bowls. Coach Mack Brown is 12-6 in 18 career bowl games, but just 8-10 ATS.
Texas played just two competitive contests all year, edging Oklahoma 16-13 as a three-point favorite on Oct. 17 and holding off Nebraska in the Big 12 championship game. The Longhorns’ other 11 wins were double-digit routs, including nine victories of 24 points or more. With the exception of Oklahoma and Nebraska, Texas scored at least 34 points in every game, eclipsed 40 points nine times and held nine opponents to 14 points or less. Only Texas Tech (24 points) and Texas A&M (39 points) topped 20 points against the Texas defense.
Alabama kicked off the season with a 34-24 rout of Virginia Tech as a 6½-point favorite at a neutral venue in Atlanta, the first of 11 double-digit victories. Like Texas, the Crimson Tide were challenged just twice: getting a blocked field goal as time expired to hold off Tennessee 12-10 as a 14-point home favorite on Oct. 24, then rallying from a 14-0 deficit at archrival Auburn on Nov. 27, winning 26-21 but failing to cover as a 10-point road chalk. Alabama scored 34 points or more in each of its first five games but just once over its final eight contests, when it averaged 26.5 ppg. However, the defense didn’t bend all year, holding 12 consecutive opponents to 21 points or less after the Virginia Tech game, including yielding 15 points or fewer 10 times.
After finishing second in last year’s Heisman voting, McCoy returned to Texas for his senior season and completed 70.5 percent of his throws for 3,512 yards with 27 TDs against 12 INTs. He also rushed for 342 yards and three scores. McCoy, who took over for Vince Young following the 2005 championship season, is a four-year starter who has connected on 70.1 percent of his passes for 13,244 yards with 112 TDs and 45 INTs, plus 1,571 rushing yards and 20 rushing TDs.
McCoy guides an attack that ranked in the Top 15 nationally in scoring offense (40.7 ppg), total offense (432.3 ypg) and passing offense (279.7 ypg). Texas also rushed for 152.6 ypg (4.1 per carry). Defensively, the Longhorns have one of the stingiest units in the country, allowing 15.2 ppg, 251.1 total ypg, 188.8 passing ypg and 62.3 rushing ypg, figures that ranked eighth, third, 23rd and first, respectively. Texas allowed opposing RBs to gain just 2 yards per carry, gave up an NCAA-low five rushing TDs and led the country with 24 interceptions.
En route to winning the Heisman Trophy, Alabama sophomore Ingram rushed for 1,542 yards and 15 touchdowns. Ingram was aided by QB Greg McElroy, who overcame a midseason slump and completed 61.1 percent of his passes for 2,450 yards with 17 TDs and just four INTs. Together, Ingram and McElroy lead an offense that averaged 31.7 ppg and 413.8 total ypg, with a rushing attack that netted 215.8 ypg (12th best in the country) and 5.1 ypc.
Alabama led the nation in scoring defense (11 ppg allowed) and was second to TCU in total defense (241.8 ypg). The Tide were seventh in passing defense (163.8 ypg), tied for seventh with 20 INTs and second to Texas in rushing defense (78.1 ypg, 2.8 yards per carry). Like the Longhorns, ‘Bama surrendered just five rushing scores.
Since Brown took over in Austin, the Longhorns have been an underdog 15 times, going 10-5 ATS with nine outright upsets (including the 2005 national title game). Going back further, Texas is 20-8-1 ATS in its last 29 as an underdog and 4-0 ATS in its last four as a ‘dog at neutral sites. Texas had a 4-1 ATS run toward the end of the season, but failed to cover in its final two contests, and it is also in pointspread slumps of 1-4 in non-conference games and 2-6-1 against winning teams.
Alabama is 10-3 SU and 8-5 ATS in its last 13 games as a single-digit chalk, going 6-2 ATS in its last eight when favored by 3½ to 10 points. The Tide have also cashed in five of their last six games against Big 12 opponents.
The under is on runs of 6-2 for Texas at neutral sites, 8-2 for Texas against winning teams, 5-2-1 for Alabama overall, 5-1-1 for Alabama as a favorite and 4-1-1 when Alabama plays on grass. Finally, last year’s BCS title tilt between Florida and Oklahoma (24-14 final) stayed under the total, ending a 4-0 “over” run in this contest.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Michigan (7-6, 3-6 ATS) at Penn State (8-6, 5-6-1 ATS)
The day’s only game matching teams from a power conference comes from the Bryce Jordan Center in State College, Pa., as Penn State tries again for its first Big Ten victory when it hosts the Wolverines.
Michigan has alternated SU wins and losses in its last eight games, most recently knocking off archrival Ohio State 73-64 Sunday as a two-point home favorite. The Wolverines have dropped all three of their true road games, including a 71-65 loss at Indiana as a 4½-point favorite in their Big Ten opener on New Year’s Eve.
Penn State gave Minnesota a fight in its conference debut on Dec. 29, falling 75-70 as a 13-point underdog, but then the Nittany Lions came home Sunday and got destroyed by Wisconsin 63-46 as a five-point underdog. Penn State, which won last year’s postseason NIT title, hasn’t lost three straight games since last February, a stretch of 27 contests.
The Nittany Lions’ last three-game slide began with a 71-51 loss at Michigan as a 4½-point underdog on Feb. 5. However, Penn State won the first meeting two weeks earlier, rolling 73-58 as a two-point underdog. The home team has won each of the last five in this rivalry both SU and ATS, all as a favorite, and Michigan is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four trips to State College. Going back further, the host is on an 8-0-1 ATS roll and the chalk is 13-3-1 ATS in the last 17 clashes. Also, the SU winner is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 series battles.
The Wolverines are on ATS runs of 5-2 in Big Ten play and 8-1 on Thursday, but they’re otherwise in pointspread funks of 2-6 overall, 16-33-3 on the highway and 2-5 after a SU victory. Penn State is 4-1 in its last five on Thursday and 7-2 ATS in its last nine against winning teams, but the Lions have failed to cash in five of their last six lined home games.
The under is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings in this rivalry, and the under is also on streaks of 18-7-1 for Michigan on the road, 7-3 for Penn State after a SU loss and 3-1-1 for Penn State versus winning teams.
The Sports Advisors 01/07
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