Ferringo 1/6
2.5-Unit Play. Take #522 Michigan State (-5.5) over Wisconsin (6:30 p.m.)
Another trend I’ve noticed this year is that when two Top 25 teams face one another the favorite has managed to take the cash more times than not. I’m going with that, among other reasons, as we ride the Spartans. The home team has won 10 straight in this series and is 8-2 ATS during that stretch. The favorite is also 7-3 ATS when these two meet and Michigan State is on a 5-2 ATS run. Wisconsin has covered three straight games so the oddsmakers are going to start to catch up with them a bit. Michigan State, on the other hand, has struggled at the window this year – but mainly against inflated double-digit lines. Wisconsin has played just two true road games this year, one of which was a four-point loss at Wisconsin-Green Bay. Michigan State has had issues in the nonconference portion of the season. But now that their “second season” is here I think that they start to gear back up. This one is all Sparty.
3-Unit Play. Take #540 UNC-Wilmington (-5) over Georgia State (7 p.m.)
It’s been a heck of a couple weeks for Wilmington and I think they are ready to breakout. They hosted Wake Forest and played the Demon Deacons tough in mid-December, and then have had road games at Richmond, at VCU and at William & Mary – three of the toughest teams in the region. Georgia State is one of only three teams ranked No. 150 or below that the Seahawks have played this year (their schedule has been brutal) and all three were UNC-W wins by 20, 30 and 20 points. It won’t be that ugly here tonight but I think that our side gets the cash. GSU has played exactly two teams ranked in the Top 140 this year – FSU and N.C. State. Their schedule has been just riddled with patsies. So that’s the foundation here: Wilmington has played much better against significantly better competition than inflated GSU. Mix in revenge and a nice home court edge and I like our boys to take care of the short line.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #556 Bradley (-3.5) over Indiana State (8 p.m.)
Indiana State is off to a really nice start in conference play this year but I’m going to fade their momentum here. They are going up against a team that has really had their number in recent year, with Bradley going 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six meetings. Indiana State has performed well ATS on the road recently, but over the last five years they have been pretty bad away from home. In fact, just about a week ago they got wrecked by 18 points at Southern Illinois and prior to that barely won at Toledo. Not inspiring. The Braves were without leading scorer and main big man Taylor Brown in their last game against Wichita State. He is back. And with four players managing 9.7 points or more they have enough options here to really get after Indiana State. ISU hasn’t felt the effects of losing Jake Kelly yet. But I think they will on the road here.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #533 Charlotte (+13.5) over Tennessee (7 p.m.)
Now, had there not been the suspensions for Tennessee I think that this line would have been around 18. That's around what it was when Charlotte played at Duke and at Louisville. So it's reasonable to expect that to be the approximate line in this game. So you're telling me that Tennessee losing four of its top eight players, including its leader and best all-around player (Tyler Smith) is only worth about four points on the line? Really? Tennessee has a huge game with Kansas coming up on the horizon, so do you think that their focus is on this game? And what about the letdown from the big Memphis win (I would have played this game as a Letdown/Look Ahead no matter what the number, and even if UT was at full strength.) I know that the entire Vols Nation will rally around this team tonight. But the bottom line here is that this number is way too thick for a team that we don't know what we're going to get out of. I mean, Tennessee struggled to put away a team like Wyoming at home. They barely beat DePaul, and only beat ETSU and COC by 12 and 17, respectively. Those teams aren't as good as Charlotte and that gets us around the number we need. Tennessee plays that And-1 style of basketball where they don't execute and they let teams hang around. They don't defend particularly well, they lose a ton of rebounding presence with Smith and Brian Williams out, and now with less slashers getting to the hole it will make it harder for Scotty Hopson to get open looks. Charlotte is a team that loves to shoot the three. That's about the worst type of team Tennessee wants to see right now. Because of Charlotte is hitting shots early and they get some confidence then they could win this game. Ask Louisville. Is Tennessee without four of its top players that much better than Louisville? I think not. And Charlotte blew them out of their own building. Only reason that this isn't a Game of the Month play is because of the emotion involved. But I'll take the points.
2-Unit Play. Take #586 BYU (-8) over UNLV (10 p.m.)
The Cougars have won by 22, by 30 and by 54 in their last three games. They are one of the best home teams in the country and they are the clear-cut best team in the WAC. Here they have their home opener in conference play and I think that they make the most of it. They have revenge from losing three straight games to the Rebels (including once at home). Prior to that BYU had beaten UNLV by 26 and 27 points in their prior two trips to Provo. This one won’t be that ugly but I think we should expect a double-digit beating.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #582 Iowa State (+13) over Duke (9 p.m.)
We may be catching Duke at a decent time here. Take them away from their home court and they have been just “pretty good”. They beat Connecticut by 9 and Arizona State by 11, and they lost at Wisconsin. They did hammer Gonzaga, but I’m throwing that game right out the window. Other than that, Duke has just beaten up bad and mediocre teams in Cameron Indoor. Now, I like this Duke team. I do. I think that they are much, much better than what they have been over the past three years. But 13 is a lot of points here for a team that will be desperate for this game and is playing a bit closer to home. The crowd will be behind the Cyclones and this game is kind of the Super Bowl for Iowa State. I think that they are athletic enough not to get run off the floor, that they have enough individual skill to hang around, and they have they played a tough enough schedule over the past month-plus to make this a game and make the points hold up. This team plays powerhouses every year in the Big 12. They won’t be scared of the Blue Devils.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #552 Kansas (-21) over Cornell (8 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. First Half: Take #552 Kansas (-11) over Cornell (8 p.m.)
I gotta think that there is a better chance of Cornell losing by 35 than their is them losing by 15 tonight. Cornell shoots the 3. That's it. That's what they do. Well, Kansas plays suffocating man-to-man and will tag all of Cornell's shooters. Kansas has shown over the past two years that they will run the score up on people and leave their starters in for a game that is out of hand. This game is less of a look ahead for Kansas after the Tennessee suspensions, so I think that this game will be their focus. Cornell is a lot like Michigan and Cal, two teams that Kansas handled, only Cornell is nowhere near as athletic or talented. Jeff Foote is going to get in foul trouble and Louis Dale has a gimpy ankle. Kansas should not be overlooking this game. The best team Cornell has played since Thanksgiving? That would be St. John's. Not exactly the same class here. Despite losing by just 15, Cornell was down over 20 points late in that Syracuse game earlier in the season. And that was with Cornell shooting the lights out in a regional Rivalry game against a team that was giving up open looks in a zone. I think this one is ugly.
1-Unit Play. Take #529 Towson (+11.5) over Hofstra (7 p.m.)
0.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 140.0 Towson at Hofstra (7 p.m.)
Hofstra is a good little team with one stud scorer. But they are coming off a tough, tough loss at George Mason and have a key stretch with Old Dominion, VCU and William & Mary on the horizon. That makes this the quintessential Letdown/Look Ahead game as a double-digit favorite against a team that they have already beaten once this year by 20 points. Both of these teams has been pretty bad over their last five games and I’m not sure that Hofstra is the type of team that will just step on the court and lay the wood to someone. Towson has come very close but has failed to cover three straight games, all by just a couple of buckets. They are getting about three extra points as a result and that will make the difference.
1-Unit Play. Take #543 Richmond (-2.5) over Duquesne (7 p.m.)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #568 Marquette (-2) over Georgetown (8 p.m.)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #588 California (-14.5) over UCLA (10:30 p.m.)
UCLA is terrible. I know that they have the rivalry aspect of this game on their side, but Cal has just been wrecking people over the last month and they have the revenge for five straight UCLA beatings. Some of those losses were pretty ugly too. And if UCLA can lose by 14 at home to Arizona they can lose by 15 on the road against Cal. The Bruins are 0-3 ATS in their last three trips away from home.
0.5-Unit Play. Take #575 Northern Iowa (Pk) over Southern Illinois (9 p.m.)
0.5-Unit Play. Take #546 St. Bonaventure (-3) over George Washington (7 p.m.)
These are 5-point teasers:
2-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #533 Charlotte (+18.5) over Tennessee (7 p.m.) AND Take #586 BYU (-3) over UNLV (10 p.m.)
1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #548 Massachusetts (-10) over Fordham (7:30 p.m.) AND Take #571 Seton Hall (+11.5) over Connecticut (9 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #559 Wichita State (+8) over Missouri State (8 p.m.) AND Take #538 Syracuse (-3) over Memphis (7 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #531 William & Mary (Pk) at Delaware (7 p.m.) AND Take #536 Providence (+8.5) over Louisville (7 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #582 Iowa State (+18) over Duke (9 p.m.) AND Take #586 BYU (-3) over UNLV (10 p.m.)
0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #577 Houston (-1) over Rice (9 p.m.) AND Take #571 Seton Hall (+11.5) over Connecticut (9 p.m.)
0.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #588 California (-9.5) over UCLA (10:30 p.m.) AND Take #529 Towson (+16.5) over Hofstra (7 p.m.)
Originally Posted by Hoopman
