When Iowa tackles Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl Tuesday it looks to have the makings of a ‘last-team-with-the-ball wins’ game. Iowa was 4-1 SU in games decided by three or fewer points and an astonishing SEVEN of the Hawkeyes’ games were decided in the final minute of play. Somewhat less dependent on adrenaline, the Yellow Jackets managed to win five of six games by 6 or less points. Tonight’s slugfest pits Iowa’s punishing defense (No. 10 nationally in scoring and No. 11 in total ‘D’) against Tech’s 2nd-ranked rushing offense that finished No. 11 in points scored. Fortunately for Iowa HC Kirk Ferentz, he’ll head for the sideline after spending more than a month figuring out how to slow Paul Johnson’s lethal triple-option attack. Georgia Tech’s stop troops have been shredded in their previous two games against Georgia and Clemson. So with both offenses threatening to run wild, we defer to our database for this juicy tidbit: .600 or greater bowl dogs of more than three points off one-win exact versus a conference opponent that allow less than 25 PPG on the season are 25-4 ATS against an opponent that allowed 14 or less points in its last game, including 11-0 ATS if the opponent is off a spread win of two or more points. Additionally, Ferentz is 31-16-1 ATS as a dog versus a foe with at least one loss, including 25-9-1 ATS if the Hawkeyes own a .200 or greater win percentage. Iowa also posted a 6-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS mark versus bowlers this season while holding four opponents to season-low yardage. By comparison, the Ramblers are 2-9 ATS as chalk off a win against greater than .500 opposition off a win. Tech doesn’t fare well in postseason play, either, going 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS the last four years. With Iowa QB Ricky Stanzi healthy again, we're hawking the Hawkeyes tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on Iowa.
Marc Lawrence 1/5
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