We believe the value in this game is on the Texas Christian Horned Frogs minus the 7 points, and Under the posted total of 53.5. We suggest that you play the game at 1% of your bankroll, and the total at 1.5% of your bankroll.
Matchups: Much of the focus leading up to this game has been on Boise State's No. 1-ranked scoring offense against TCU's No. 1-ranked total defense. The Broncos are the highest-scoring team in the nation at 44.2 points per game, but against elite competition like Oregon and TCU, points have been much harder to come by.
In last year's Poinsettia Bowl, Boise State stayed in the game by dominating in special teams play. The Broncos outgained TCU by 144 yards in special teams return yardage. Twice after big play out of the special teams, however, the Broncos bogged down inside the 20 and were forced to settle for field goals. The Broncos bogged down because the Horned Frog defense held them to a measly 28 yards on 20 attempts - and Ian Johnson had a 20 of those yards on one carry for a touchdown in the first quarter.
This year, Boise State is averaging 194.5 yards per game on the ground behind running backs Jeremy Avery and Doug Martin. Yet, TCU is allowing a mere 80.5 rushing yards per game. Nonetheless, the story tonight will be less about the total yards gain than it will be about Boise establishing a consistent ground attack, and slowing down that vaunted TCU pass rush.
Making matters worse for Boise, is that they are forced to start a freshman at offensive tackle in the Fiesta Bowl. That means he will draw the primary task of slowing down the Horned Frogs’ All-American defensive end Jerry Hughes. He has 26.5 sacks in the last two seasons, and will disrupt the Broncos’ timing-based passing game if not contained.
When TCU has the ball, one will see one of the most balanced offensive attacks the Broncos have faced in recent years. The Horned Frogs average 256.5 rushing yards per game and have the nation's fourth-rated passer at quarterback. TCU has three tailbacks with 600-plus rushing yards, five receivers with at least 19 catches and seven players with at least two touchdown catches. That's balance, folks!
Moreover, last year, TCU held the ball for 36 minutes, 7 seconds against the Broncos - and by all accounts is better this year. The Frogs have improved their output by 48 yards and seven points per game this season.
Bottom Line: We look for the Horned Frogs to easily cash and move to 5-1 ATS in their last 6 bowl games. Expect them to: 1) once again dominate the time of possession; 2) once again limit the ground attack of Boise; and 3) pressure Kellen Moore in to making costly mistakes in judgement.
TCU vs Boise
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