Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

TCU -7.5

For a number of different reasons I believe we're getting excellent value on the Horned Frogs:

The Broncos have shown a weakness against power-run teams dating to last year’s Poinsettia Bowl loss to TCU.

Kellen Moore is the nation’s most efficient passer, and he leads the nation’s highest-scoring offense; however TCU leads the nation in total defense and ranks in the top six in nearly every other defensive category.

Remember, Boise State is already a sub-par 1-2 ATS this season when playing against a team with a winning record.

On the other side of the field: TCU beat Boise State 17-16 last year in the Poinsettia Bowl.

While the scoreboard showed a close game, TCU dominated the stat sheet in essentially every category, including holding the Broncos to just 28 rushing yards.

The TCU offense had a record-setting year this season, finishing ranked #4 in total offense (469.1 yards per game); junior QB Andy Dalton earned Mountain West Conference Offensive Player of the Year honors after pacing the Frogs with 2,484 passing yards and 22 TD passes to just five INT's; he also ran for 522 yards and three more scores.

Not only is TCU 5-0 SU its last five, its also 6-1 ATS its last seven.

Bottom line: The old adage that defense wins championships could not be more true in this case; expect head coach Gary Patterson to have a rock-solid defensive scheme in this one as they finally expose the Broncos; look for TCU to improve to 8-3 ATS this year as a favorite and for Boise State to fall to 0-1 ATS as an underdog of 3 1/2 to 10 points!

10* TCU