I'm laying the points with TCU. With records of 12-0 and 13-0 this game marks the first time that two undefeated teams have faced each other in a bowl game that wasn't for the national championship. Some will argue that Boise is the team that's "happier" to be here. After all, the Broncos didn't ever really believe that they had a shot at playing for the national championship while TCU did. Additionally, the Broncos get a chance to avenge a loss that TCU handed them last season in the Pointsetta Bowl. That may be true. However, that doesn't mean that TCU will be any less motivated to go all out for the win. As TCU coach Gary Patterson, the AP Coach of the Year, had to say: "Our whole deal is we're going to have to show the nation in this next bowl game that we belong, that we're one of the top two teams in the nation. You can still win the AP (championship), so that's what our whole goal is." I believe that will provide more than enough motivation for the Horned Frogs, as they look to make a statement that they are in fact the best team in the country. Yes, Boise State had an impressive 13-0 record, including a win over Oregon. However, that win vs. the Ducks came on the blue turf and in the very first week of the season - Oregon wasn't nearly as strong a team at that point. Give the Broncos credit but if they faced the Ducks later in the year and/or at a different venue, things could easily have been different. The Broncos' next "biggest" wins came against the likes of Fresno State and Nevada. They beat Fresno by 17 early in the year. While both teams were playing on a shorter than normal week, the Broncos were fortunate to catch the Bulldogs off a double-OT loss. Also, considering that Fresno lost 52-14 to Nevada six weeks ago and more recently were beaten by lowly Wyoming in its bowl game, Boise's "big win" starts to look less impressive. As for the win over Nevada, Boise was fortunate to face the Wolfpack on the blue turf. The Broncos won by 11, failing to cover the number. Given Nevada's 45-10 loss vs. SMU in the Hawaii Bowl, that victory also starts to look far less impressive. TCU, on the other hand, has faced a much more difficult schedule and has shown no mercy, regardless of the opponent. For starters, the Frogs recently played on the road, at Wyoming, facing the same team that beat Fresno. That resulted in a 45-10 destruction. The previous week, the Frogs absolutely dismantled Utah, winning by a score of 55-10. That's even more impressive, when considering that Utah just had its way vs. Cal in the Pointsetta Bowl. How about SMU, the team that crushed Nevada? TCU beat the Mustangs by a score of 39-14. Early in the year, the Frogs went on the road and won at Clemson while also winning by 16 at Virginia. Last but certainly not least, the Frogs played BYU on the road and won by a score of 38-7! For the season, the Frogs have outscored opponents by an average of 40.7 to 12.4. They've won each of their last seven games by a minimum of 27 points and by an average of 36.6 points! Looking at last year's bowl game and we find that TCU fell behind 13-0 and still rallied to win the game. The final score of that game was very close. However, a look at the stats shows that the Frogs actually dominated. They had a 28-15 edge in first downs and a 472-250 edge in total yards. That included a commanding 275-28 edge on the ground! Naturally, they also had a significant edge (36:07-23:53) in terms of time of possession. Everyone remembers the big win over Oklahoma a few years ago. However, not many realize that last year's loss dropped Boise to just 4-10 vs. ranked teams, since moving up to Division I-A in 1996. This year's TCU team is even better. Much better. Personally, I don't believe the same can be said of Boise. Both teams are excellent offensively (note that Boise's top receiver, Austin Pettis, who led the WAC with 14 touchdown, is questionable) but I believe TCU has a big edge on defense. Boise coach Petersen knows his team is in tough: "I think when we played those guys last year it was one of the better teams we had matched up with in a long time. I think TCU's gotten even better than last year and taken the next step in their progress with their program and what they're doing. It'll be a tremendous challenge ... for us to hang in there and play with those guys." I'll close my analysis with a post-game quote from last year's bowl game. Ian Johnson, Boise's longtime star running back, no longer with the team, said of the Frogs: "They had better athletes than we've ever seen. They played with so much heart. You didn't look over there one time and say, 'We broke them.' They knew they were going to come back and they believed in themselves the whole time." *10 Bowl GOY
Usually always laughing at Burns picks but he might get this one right. TCU looks solid... but his GOY's (which is a lot) crash and burn so many times. Play cautiously.
Ben burns 1/4
Reply With Quote