20-2 ATS Fiesta Bowl Super System Play! - Monday
Boise St
Solid, cut and dry, then again...
MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK: 20-9-1
3* = 1-1
4* = 2-0
5* = 2-0
TCU over Boise St by 6
Believe it or not, some people are actually bitching about the fact that a
pair of ‘non-BCS’ conference teams are squaring off in a BCS bowl here.
Not us! We can’t wait to see two of the nation’s fi ve undefeated teams in a
rematch of last year’s 17-16 TCU win over Boise State in the Poinsettia Bowl.
In fact, we think these guys can play with ANYBODY in the country. So
does Coach of the Year winner Gary Patterson of TCU, who voted his team
No. 2 in the fi nal coaches poll because “I owed it to my football team to
do so.” Talk about a pair of heavyweights: last year’s loss to TCU has been
Boise State’s lone defeat in the past two seasons while the Frogs have been
beaten by only Oklahoma and a perfect 2008 Utah squad. Today’s game pits
the proverbial irresistible force against the immovable object. The Broncos
lead the nation in scoring at 44.3 PPG (they’ve scored at least 40 points in
seven straight games), rank No. 8 in total offense and QB Kellen Moore has
thrown for a whopping 39 TDs in 2009 while suffering only THREE picks!
Coach Chris Petersen’s scoring machine will face off with a ferocious Horned
Frog stop unit that fi nished No. 1 in total defense (233.3 YPG) and No. 6 in
scoring defense (12.4 PPG). But TCU’s resume doesn’t end with defense –
the Froggies’ offense enjoyed its own record-setting year. QB Andy Dalton
earned MWC Player of the Year honors by throwing for 2,484 yards and
22 TDs while rushing for an additional 522 yards. When it comes to ATS
advantages, our database declares this showdown to be a dead heat. TCU’s
Patterson is 7-2 ATS with rest versus non-conference opponents and his
unique 4-2-5 defensive-scheme spearheaded by monster DE Jerry Hughes
held eight opponents to season low – or 2nd low – yardage this season.
But Boise State owns a formidable 11-1 SU and 9-2-1 ATS record against
bowlers the last two years and WAC bowl dogs off a win of 20 or more
points are 10-0 ATS versus a greater than .700 opponent. Wow! Since TCU
is the ONLY team in the FBS to outgain every foe in 2009 and Patterson’s
gang held the Broncos to only 28 yards rushing in last year’s bowl win, we
have to side with the Horned Ones to claim the SU decision. However, Boise
State’s burning need for vengeance (“That loss is like acid in the bottom
of your stomach,” said DT Billy Winn) and the presence of Moore – the
nation’s most effi cient QB -– means there is precious little wiggle room in
the current 7-point spread. You can pick your poison if you must but we’re
going to play the role of football voyeur here and just watch.
All these guys are shysters without the law degree and maybe not even Jewish, but shysters nonetheless
"Wow! Since TCU is the ONLY team in the FBS to outgain every foe in 2009 and Patterson’s
gang held the Broncos to only 28 yards rushing in last year’s bowl win, we
have to side with the Horned Ones to claim the SU decision."