This is a rematch of last year's Poinsettia Bowl which was won by TCU by 1 point late. As we watched this season unfold, the odds makers have inflated the line on TCU to no avail. It seemed like any number they threw out there, TCU found a way to cover it. They haven't played the sternest of competition though but their schedule is what it is. Boise St is undefeated for the second straight season but were complaining a bit about having to play another undefeated team and the same team that they faced last year. These teams also wanted to put their game up against some of the big conference boys, but they should both just shut up and play. They are both getting the big pay day that a BCS bowl brings you and they are two teams that the public wants to see play each other.
Now lets break down the game and see if we can come up with a winner. There are a couple of areas that we have to look at in bowl matchups. First is the line play. Both have very good and very quick defenses and both teams can get after the passer. We saw how Boise did it against Oregon in the first game of the year, and that game right there is still a factor in what we will determine in this game. Oregon played in the Rose Bowl this year and while they were man handled by Ohop St. Boise manhandled them even more. They also protect their QB Kellen Moore very well. He was sacked only 5 times the entire season!! None of those were in the last 5 games as well. So edge in the trenches goes to Boise St. Next is the QB play. both teams have outstanding QB's. Both are very experienced and both make their teams go. But there is one distinction between the two that really stands out. Kellen Moore REALLY takes care of the football 39 TD's and only 3 picks the whole season.
That is a 13 - 1 ratio!! Moore also gets the ball out quickly which should help negate the vicious pass rush that the Horned Fogs can throw at you. Defensively this is not a mismatch either as TCU is ranked #1 , while Boise's D is ranked 13th nationally. The total on the game has come down despite the majority of the bets being on the over, and yes I think it will go back up tomorrow as the game approaches. The under could and should be a bonus play for you but that is not the official play in here.
I believe that the big boys have their middle created around the key number of 7. They have forced it down to 6.5 at one point and they have hammered the line at 7.5. We will continue to go with the bowl bread and butter here though and that is the fact that teams getting 7 or more in bowl games are hitting at 70 percent over the last 11 seasons. I am not a big fan of revenge games in college but in this one I think it is for real and I do think that Boise who has played in this bowl before, beating Oklahoma and I believe they will draw on that and will cover and win outright against TCU. We'll settle for the cover though.
Strategy note: Wait on this one to see if you can get the hook. If it doesn't come, you might consider buying it to get off the key number and an added level of comfort.
Big Dog Duemig - 1/4
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