Stephen Nover
Monday's Picks 100 Dime - Under Boise State/TCU
Boise State ranks first in the nation in scoring averaging 44.2 points per game. TCU averages 40.7 points per game, which is fourth-best in the country.
But I'm more impressed with the great defenses of these two teams. TCU gives up 12.4 points per game, while Boise is holding foes to 17.7 points per game. I see defense trumping offense especially with the long layoff these teams have had. Boise last played on Dec. 5, while TCU hasn't been in action since Nov. 28.
Not only are the offenses going to be rusty and out of sync, but the defenses will have had ample time to prepare. The two teams met in the Poinsettia Bowl last December and TCU won, 17-16. Boise State could manage just 250 yards of offense.
TCU had a great defense last season ranking second. But the Horned Frogs have even a more dominant defense this season being faster on the edges and stronger in the trenches. They rank No. 1 in the nation in total defense yielding 233.3 yards per game.
These teams got their big offensive numbers beating cupcakes and foes with horrendous defenses. Boise's last seven games, for instance, were against Hawaii, San Jose State, Louisiana Tech, Idaho, Utah State, Nevada and New Mexico State. The Broncos averaged 49.2 points against those hapless defenses.
When Boise met a legitimate team - Oregon - it won 19-8.
TCU fattened its scoring up against weak sisters in the Mountain West Conference, a top-heavy league with four good teams and four really bad ones. When the Horned Frogs met their toughest non-league foe - Clemson - they won 14-10.
In the biggest games with the toughest competition, both Boise and TCU won with defense in low-scoring matchups. Look for that to be the case in this matchup just like last year's bowl game.
15 Dime - VCU
The combination of athleticism, rebounding, deeper bench, situation and holding a strong home-court edge put me on Virginia Commonwealth.
The Rams should prove too athletic for Northeastern. The Huskies figure to have problems containing 6-foot-11 Larry Sanders.
Northeastern has its own star in swingman Matt Janning. But VCU has been strong recently in holding down the opposition's main target. In their last four games, the Rams have combined to hold their opponent's leading scorer to 41.8 percent shooting from the floor.
VCU has proven very strong at home. Among their notable home wins this season are 82-69 over Oklahoma, 85-76 over Nevada, 82-80 over Rhode Island, 65-57 over Richmond, 82-74 over East Carolina and 91-57 over NC Wilmington.
Northeastern is playing for the fourth time in seven days. The Huskies have lost six of their eight road contests. VCU is 8-3 against the spread in its last 11 home games versus a team with a losing road record.
10 Dime - Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks should be primed for this road matchup against Miami having lost three in a row for the first time this season.
The Hawks lost back-to-back games against Cleveland, an elite opponent they have trouble matching up against us. Still brooding about those two losses, the Hawks then lost in overtime to the Knicks on Friday. Nate Robinson came out of nowhere - actually Mike D'Antoni's doghouse - to drop 41 points on the Hawks.
The Hawks have had the entire weekend to put those losses behind them and get prepared for this matchup. Atlanta is 6-1 against the spread in its last seven games following a straight-up loss.
Atlanta also is the top pointspread team in the NBA covering 22 of 32 games.
Miami is playing for the fourth time in six days. The Heat has lost its last three games falling to New Orleans, San Antonio and Charlotte by a combined 44 points.
Only lowly New Jersey has a worse home mark that the Heat. Miami is just 10-9 at home. The Heat have lost home contests to Charlotte, Washington, Memphis and Oklahoma City. None of those teams made the playoffs last season.
The Heat is 4-10 against the spread in its last 14 home matchups. Miami has failed to cover during 21 of its last 29 home games when facing an opponent with a winning road record.
The Hawks defeated the Heat, 105-90, at home on Nov. 18 in their lone meeting this season. The Hawks won by 15 points despite being outshot from the floor.
Stephen Nover 1/4/2010
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