Stephen Nover
Monday's Picks 100 Dime - Under Boise State/TCU
Boise State ranks first in the nation in scoring averaging 44.2 points per game. TCU averages 40.7 points per game, which is fourth-best in the country.
But I'm more impressed with the great defenses of these two teams. TCU gives up 12.4 points per game, while Boise is holding foes to 17.7 points per game. I see defense trumping offense especially with the long layoff these teams have had. Boise last played on Dec. 5, while TCU hasn't been in action since Nov. 28.
Not only are the offenses going to be rusty and out of sync, but the defenses will have had ample time to prepare. The two teams met in the Poinsettia Bowl last December and TCU won, 17-16. Boise State could manage just 250 yards of offense.
TCU had a great defense last season ranking second. But the Horned Frogs have even a more dominant defense this season being faster on the edges and stronger in the trenches. They rank No. 1 in the nation in total defense yielding 233.3 yards per game.
These teams got their big offensive numbers beating cupcakes and foes with horrendous defenses. Boise's last seven games, for instance, were against Hawaii, San Jose State, Louisiana Tech, Idaho, Utah State, Nevada and New Mexico State. The Broncos averaged 49.2 points against those hapless defenses.
When Boise met a legitimate team - Oregon - it won 19-8.
TCU fattened its scoring up against weak sisters in the Mountain West Conference, a top-heavy league with four good teams and four really bad ones. When the Horned Frogs met their toughest non-league foe - Clemson - they won 14-10.
In the biggest games with the toughest competition, both Boise and TCU won with defense in low-scoring matchups. Look for that to be the case in this matchup just like last year's bowl game.
15 Dime - VCU
The combination of athleticism, rebounding, deeper bench, situation and holding a strong home-court edge put me on Virginia Commonwealth.
The Rams should prove too athletic for Northeastern. The Huskies figure to have problems containing 6-foot-11 Larry Sanders.
Northeastern has its own star in swingman Matt Janning. But VCU has been strong recently in holding down the opposition's main target. In their last four games, the Rams have combined to hold their opponent's leading scorer to 41.8 percent shooting from the floor.
VCU has proven very strong at home. Among their notable home wins this season are 82-69 over Oklahoma, 85-76 over Nevada, 82-80 over Rhode Island, 65-57 over Richmond, 82-74 over East Carolina and 91-57 over NC Wilmington.
Northeastern is playing for the fourth time in seven days. The Huskies have lost six of their eight road contests. VCU is 8-3 against the spread in its last 11 home games versus a team with a losing road record.
10 Dime - Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks should be primed for this road matchup against Miami having lost three in a row for the first time this season.
The Hawks lost back-to-back games against Cleveland, an elite opponent they have trouble matching up against us. Still brooding about those two losses, the Hawks then lost in overtime to the Knicks on Friday. Nate Robinson came out of nowhere - actually Mike D'Antoni's doghouse - to drop 41 points on the Hawks.
The Hawks have had the entire weekend to put those losses behind them and get prepared for this matchup. Atlanta is 6-1 against the spread in its last seven games following a straight-up loss.
Atlanta also is the top pointspread team in the NBA covering 22 of 32 games.
Miami is playing for the fourth time in six days. The Heat has lost its last three games falling to New Orleans, San Antonio and Charlotte by a combined 44 points.
Only lowly New Jersey has a worse home mark that the Heat. Miami is just 10-9 at home. The Heat have lost home contests to Charlotte, Washington, Memphis and Oklahoma City. None of those teams made the playoffs last season.
The Heat is 4-10 against the spread in its last 14 home matchups. Miami has failed to cover during 21 of its last 29 home games when facing an opponent with a winning road record.
The Hawks defeated the Heat, 105-90, at home on Nov. 18 in their lone meeting this season. The Hawks won by 15 points despite being outshot from the floor.
Sometimes in the bowl season, you get matchups where one team faces another team which truly doesn't deserve to be there.
I have talked on radio the past few weeks about how the BCS dropped the ball with this matchup and how we, football fans in america, should have been treated to TCU-Florida while Cincinnati and Boise State went and had fun.
But nope, let's stick the world with a rematch of two teams that faced each other last year. IDIOTS.
Boise State went undefeated. Big Fuc$%^&@^&ing deal. Hell, any team in the Big Ten, ACC, SEC or Big East would have gone undefeated with their schedule.
If I have said it once over the last few weeks I will say it again, Boise State doesn't deserve to be here.
Let me take you to a game earlier this year, Boise State at Tulsa.
With just over 2 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter leading 25-14, Boise State faced a 4th and goal from the Tulsa 1 yard line.
Now if you are Nick Saban, Pete Carroll, Urban Meyer, you know, coaches with some balls, you call timeout and tell your offense, "Go back out there and get me a yard and let's put this game away and show the world we mean business."
As soon as I tell my offense that and send them back out onto the field, I go over to my defense, which has given up just 1 first down since there was 2 minutes to go in the first quarter, we don't get this you go get that ball back for me.
It's a great message to send to your team but not Petersen. He elects to kick the field goal. On 4th and goal from the one. Up 11. With his defense playing lights out. Against Tulsa no less. That was all I needed to see with Mr. Petersen.
My point in all this is I don't trust this man against big competition. Simple as that and what Boise State is about to see tonight is a tornado, a hurricane the likes they have never seen since Petersen has been there.
He lobbied hard to get a bowl game. Needed some cheese to go with all that wine we had to hear with Boise this and Boise that.
Tonight he will be sorry he whined so much, because they are going to get lit up because they really shouldn't be here. He better have the Cincinnati Bearcats number because he is going to have to call them after this game to have someone he can relate to after this beating.
Now here are some other reasons why TCU wins by 21 points or more tonight.
100 DIME - TCU HORNED FROGS - (if line is 7 1/2, you buy the 1/2 and lay 7. Never get beat by the hook.) - The Horned Frogs will dominate this team tonight.
First and foremost, Boise State doesn't deserve to be here. They really don't.
They had one win of any significance, and that one just happened to be the first game out of the box at home against Oregon and I think you would agree if they played today, Oregon would blow them out.
Allow me to put in perspective what is about to happen to Boise State tonight.
Against the Utah Utes, a team that played a tougher schedule than Boise State and yet put up similar defense numbers, lost to TCU 55-28.
I am talking about TCU putting up 55 points on the 19th best overall defense in the entire country and they did it rather easily.
Folks, Boise comes in with the 14th best defense against a joke of a schedule. How much of a joke you ask? Take a look at this.
With exception of the 36th ranked Oregon defense they faced on the blue carpet to start the year which held them to 19 points, the following are the total defense rankings of Boise State's other 11 opponents. Please note: Cal Davis isn't ranked.
Don't adjust your eyes: 70th, 98th, 87th, 85th, 93rd, 108th, 60th, 107th, 113th and 96th. I don't see #1 in there anywhere do you?
Fact of the matter is Boise is in for a world of trouble tonight because they are matched up in a bowl game they shouldn't have been awarded.
I had the same feeling with Cincinnati versus Florida. Didn't think Cincy based on their close calls along the way deserved to be in the Sugar Bowl. I felt all along the matchup we all should be seeing tonight was Florida-TCU.
However, it is what it is and on paper and on the field this game is a total mismatch across the board.
You look at the Mountain West in bowl games this year and you will see domination like Wyoming outright while Air Force, Utah and BYU all won by double digits.
Conversely, the WAC has been an embarrassment with Nevada and Fresno State losing outright as double digit favorites while Idaho was just flat out lucky.
This line should be TCU -14 and even then I would lay it as the #1 defense in the entire country makes a huge statement and the TCU offense has their way with an overrated Boise State defense.
Thank god Boise coach Chris Petersen got a contract extension before this game because after this beating his team is going to take tonight, they might want to reconsider.
25 DIME - BOISE STATE-TCU UNDER -It's going to be a long night for the Boise State offense.
This is the #1 defense in the country playing on the national stage. You don't think they are going to be motivated to show the world just how good they are?
They rank #2 against the run, #3 against the pass putting them #1 in the country.
When you are team like Boise State, and you are facing the best defense you have seen all year long, practice against your own team can't prepare you for what you are about to see.
This is going to be a complete dominant effort by the TCU defense as the world takes notice of just how good this defense is.
As mentioned above, when all you faced the cupcake defenses that Boise State has faced this year, they just won't be prepared for the speed, athleticism or strength of TCU tonight.
Take the Under in tonight's game.
25 DIME - TCU 1ST HALF PLAY - I was a little perturbed at myself for not taking the Gators in the first half over Cincinnati so I am not about to make the same mistake twice.
Boise State will not know what hit them from the very beginning. The speed of which TCU will be coming at Kellen Moore, who really isn't that mobile anyway.
I see line value with TCU in the first half as I have them jumping out early and getting to a double digit first half lead.
Love the First half play of the Horned Frogs and feel it's great value.
Jordan
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