Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons 1/3
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Cincinnati / Jets Under 35.5
For a number of different reasons I believe we're getting excellent value on the "under" in this matchup:
Cincinnati wrapped up its first division title since 2005 after struggling past Kansas City 17-10 last Sunday, capping what was an emotionally draining week following the Dec. 17 death of wide receiver Chris Henry.
The Bengals need a victory and have New England to lose to Houston to claim the No. 3 seed, but a loss to the Jets would create a rematch between the teams in Cincinnati next week.
Cincinnati has totaled 305 points - the fewest among the seven teams to clinch division titles. The Bengals have failed to score more than 24 in any of their last eight games.
Despite having to go with a patchwork defense over the past couple weeks, defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer is expecting better of his unit, especially with the stakes becoming bigger.
"We can't play like that and win anything in the playoffs," Zimmer said of last week's game. "We made too many mistakes all over. We're better than that. We had guys playing pass and it was run and run when it was pass."
When defensive end Antwan Odom went down, Jonathan Fanene stepped in and has six sacks. Strong safety Chinedum Ndukwe reclaimed his starting spot after Roy Williams was injured and is third on the team in tackles, including an interception last week.
Keep in mind that the total has gone "under" the posted number in four of Cincinnati's last five overall and in five of their last seven vs. New York.
On the other side of the field: If the Jets win; they're in; simple as that.
Last week New York scored 19 unanswered points after the Colts - assured of the AFC’s No. 1 seed heading into the game - pulled their starters late in the third quarter.
The Jets are 4-2 when Mark Sanchez does not throw an INT, and since he is backed by the league’s best rushing offense at 166.6 yards per game, offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer likely will devise a gameplan similar to the one employed last Sunday; running backs Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene gashed the Colts for 200 yards on the ground.
New York’s defense, which leads the NFL in scoring defense at 15.7 points per game, has conceded just 47 in winning four of five.
Remember, the total has gone "under" the posted number in four of New York's last five overall and in four of their last five when playing at home vs. Cincinnati.
Bottom line: Heading into the playoffs Zimmer would like to see an improved pass rush; the Bengals have three sacks in the last two games, but all of those were on blitzes. Zimmer has liked the matchups the last couple weeks, but the Bengals have not done a good job of manufacturing sacks; expect a concerted effort on the defensive side of the ball from the Bengals in this one, especially when the offensive starters (almost certainly), sit in the second half.
Here is another powerful "under" trend that both teams have exhibited over the last three seasons; both have seen the total go "under" the posted number in nine of eleven games in the last four weeks of their respective regular seasons.
So, keeping those powerful trends in mind, and when taking into account these other strong O/U trends and these other factors, the sharp money in this one is on the UNDER!
10* UNDER
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by johnnyra21
