Yes, we are aware that by the time kickoff roles around, the Bengals may have nothing to play for. And, yes, we are also aware that the Jets have everything to play for being that they are in a "win and in" playoff situation. However, New York doesn't deserve to be favored by this many points against anybody, let alone a quality team like Cincinnati. At home, the Flyboys are just 3-4 SU/ATS, including losses to Buffalo and Atlanta when it mattered most, while turning the ball over 19 times in those seven games. QB Mark Sanchez has a TD-INT ratio of 12-20 and with a top-flight defense, HC Rex Ryan isn't going to let Sanchez go out there and try to win the game, or even worse, lose the game for his team. Having played his college ball at USC, Sanchez isn't used to playing in cold conditions. The Jets have lost outright four times as a favorite this season, once laying nine and once laying 6.5. Even with potential reserves in the game, Cincinnati won't deviate from the script. This is a team that runs the ball and plays defense, mirroring the style that brought so much success to fellow AFC North teams Pittsburgh and Baltimore. We've already seen backup RB Larry Johnson have a big game or two since coming over from KC. Even more important is that we've really had our finger on the pulse of this team all season. They are 7-1 ATS as an underdog, winning six of those games outright. We've cashed them going against Pittsburgh and Baltimore early in the season. They are 0-7 ATS when laying points and we've gone against them in non-covers vs. Houston (outright loss), Oakland (outright loss), Cleveland and last week vs. Kansas City. They have only lost two games by more than five points this season and with a defense that allows just 16.9 PPG, they are the play here plus the points. Cincinnati is our 20* Sunday Night Game of the Month.
Lenny Del Genio 1/3
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