10 Dime ---COWBOYS (Buy the 1/2 point down to -2 1/2 as this line has been holding steady at -3 all week)
5 Dime ---CHIEFS
5 Dime ---TITANS
ATLANTA FALCONS --- A lot more at stake for the Falcons in this one and with the Bucs coming in off back-to-back road wins, you bet we're getting line value. The Bucs have been a decent dog this season, especially on the road... but if you look at their ATS record at home it's enough to make you puke. 1-6... that's their ATS record at Raymond James Stadium... 1-6. A fluky 38-28 win over the Packers is the only ATS (or SU) win they have at home, and there's no reason for me to think they get another one here today. The Bucs have covered just one of their last 10 games at home and just 3 of their last 18 on natural grass... and since this track is going to be a little damaged because a college bowl game was just played their, I like their chances even less.
The Falcons have a chance to do something today that's NEVER been done in the history of their franchise... have back-to-back winning seasons. Amazing, isn't it? Never once in all their years as a team have the Falcons posted back-to-back winning seasons, yet a win today over Tampa Bay would give them just that. And with the line currently where it's at, all we really need is a win and we get our cover and the Falcons make history... it's a win-win, right?
Last month the Falcons came from behind to beat the Bucs, 20-17, in Atlanta when Chris Redman had to take over for Matt Ryan when he went down because of an injured toe. Today, Matt Ryan is completely recovered and playing better than he did even earlier in the season. Did you see he and Roddy White last week? The Buffalo secondary was supposed to be one of the best in the league, but Ryan and White torched them all afternoon and White ended the game with nearly 200 yards and two TDs. What's to make me think White can't do that today against a Tampa defense that allows over 200 passing yards per game?
Jason Snelling and Jerious Norwood should also have a field day against a defense that allows 178 rushing yards per game at home, and after a "sub par" game last week, you can bet Snelling is itching to get back on the field and help the Falcons get that second straight winning season. The Falcons have clearly shown the ability to run the ball in the past and will most definitely get back to their roots today, pounding the smallish Tampa defensive line and wearing them down by the 4th quarter. The Falcons win this by at least 7.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS --- (buy the half point) --- Honestly, there's not much I can write about this game because for me, it comes down to one thing. Ben Roethlisberger vs. Chad Henne. I don't believe either team is going to be able to run the ball effectively, seeing as we're dealing with two of the league's top 10 rush defenses. Plus, Ricky Williams isn't 100% and I doubt we see Willie Parker. Rashard Mendenhall should have a decent day while either Williams or Lex Hilliard will do an adequate job for Miami, but in the end it's going to come down to which QBs and receivers get the job done.
Hmmmmmm, on one side we have Big Ben and his two Super Bowls with Heath Miller, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes and even Mike Wallace. On the other side we have Chad Henne, Anthony Fasano, Ted Ginn Jr., Greg Camarillo, Davone Bess, etc. You get the picture. Pittsburgh has beaten Miami five straight times and eight of the last ten times they've played, and considering what's on the line today, I'm putting my money on the Steelers. They know how to win when everything is on the line and it's not like they forgot what got them to the Super Bowl last year. Plus, we might get a huge bonus in this one as S Troy Polamalu has a slim chance of playing. If Vegas knew he was in the game this line would immediately jump at least a point, maybe more. So go ahead and buy this one quickly as I do expect it to go up.
DALLAS COWBOYS (make sure to buy the 1/2 point down to 2 1/2 as this line has been holding steady at -3 all week) --- Revenge. Today's game in Dallas is about one thing... revenge. I could care less how good Andy Reid has been in an underdog role. I could care less how the Eagles haven't been swept in a series by the Cowboys since 2004. None of that matters to me. What matters is that we have two good football teams playing in Dallas and one of them is likely a little over-confident while the other one is seething to match wits with the Eagles with the division title on the line... and revenge in the back of their minds. Remember, it was Philly who embarrassed the Cowboys last year in Philadelphia when all the Cowboys needed was one win and they would have found themselves in the playoffs. When you can find a team playing at home with that much revenge on their minds, you have to like them.
Let's also not forget the Cowboys defense is playing as good as any defense in the NFL right now, having limited the Saints to 17 two weeks ago and shutting out the Redskins last week on the road. Now, I obviously realize they aren't going to shut the Eagles out... especially with that big play ability they have, but they will make it as tough to move the ball as any team in the NFL they've faced so far this year. DeMarcus Ware is playing at a high level and when you can constant penetration from your defensive line (mainly Jay Ratliff), it disrupts the offense and what they're trying to do.
Dallas' offense is also getting back to their "bread and butter" by running the ball more than they had when they were losing. When Marion Barber, Felix Jones and even Tashard Choice are running well, it opens so many things up in the passing game... and right now Tony Romo is playing the best football of his entire career. The yards and TDs might not be as high as they were at other times in his career, but he's winning games in December and taking care of the ball. If he keeps that up today, the Cowboys will have no problem winning this game. I think he finally grows up right in front of our eyes and wins the big one on the biggest stage of the regular season.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS --- There's a reason this number has gone down from a key number of 13 to a key number of 10... because two of Denver's most exciting players are out (Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal), leaving Kyle Orton with a thin corps of WRs today. And to be honest, I don't think Josh McDaniels wants his QB to drop back and throw a bunch today anyhow. They had so much success running the ball against Kansas City in their last meeting that you can bet he'll try and exploit that again today. The only problem is, Kansas City will be ready.
First, they know that without Marshall and Royal the Denver passing game is extremely limited in what it can do. Secondly, they have game film from the last time Denver handed them a spanking in Kansas City and they've seen several other games in which the Broncos have used their RBs effectively. It won't come as any sort of surprise to them today when Denver keeps the ball in the hands of Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter.
The biggest question for the Chiefs today will be how effectively they can move the ball. Much like Denver, I think Kansas City wants to keep the ball on the ground with Jamaal Charles while keeping Denver's offense on the sidelines. Charles has been one of the biggest surprises the second half of this season and he'll have Denver's defense guessing a bunch today.
Two of the last three times the Chiefs have gone to Denver, they kept the game within 7. I see no reason why that can't happen again today as Denver doesn't have the weapons to blow anyone out right now. Even their special teams are limited without Royal running back kicks. Chiefs keep this close throughout and could wind up winning outright.
TENNESSEE TITANS --- I was on the Titans Christmas Day and I was even in the stadium to watch the Chargers kick the absolute crap out of Tennessee in every phase of the game. Believe it or not, I think the Titans learned from that game and will end the season by kicking the snot out of a worthless Seattle team here today.
The biggest problem Tennessee had in the San Diego game is that they can't stop a high-powered passing attack... not with the personnel they have in place right now. Well, the good news is Seattle doesn't have that type of passing attack that would worry even a college team. Matt Hasselbeck isn't 100% and he's going to be without Nate Burleson, limiting his targets to a less-than-100% TJ Houshamdzadeh, Deon Butler, Deion Banch, and TE John Carlson. Big difference from Philip Rivers, Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates, etc.
Tennessee's Chris Johnson is a little over 100 yards away from reaching 2000 yards for the season in just his second year in the league. For the Titans, that's one of their biggest goals... whether or not they say it. Let's be real... they know they can't get to the playoffs, so what's the next best thing? It's getting Johnson to 2000 yards, and if he gets there you can bet the Titans will already have a 10+ point lead. Tennessee wants to go out in style after what happened to them last Friday, and they've had an extra few days to prepare. Seattle will have home field advantage, but you wouldn't know it by watching them play there recently. Seattle stands no chance in this one as the Titans rout Seattle.
C. Davis 1/3
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