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  1. 01-03-10 10:28 AM #1
    youngfan98
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  2. 01-03-10 10:40 AM #2
    Just_Wynn_Baby
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    New England Patriots: +7.0 / 3*
    This isn’t the first time that the New England Patriots have clinched their playoff spot prior to the start of the Week 17 games. And the Pats have been pretty darn good in their season finales under Bill Belichick, even when they are supposed to be resting starters.

    The results don’t lie. The Pats made the playoffs in ’07, winning SU on the road against the eventual Super Bowl champion Giants in Week 17. In ’06, they were underdogs at Tennessee for the finale, but the Pats won outright 40-23. In ’05 they lost by two points to Miami, 28-26 in Week 17. In ’04, they beat the 49ers by two touchdowns to close out the regular season. In ’03, it was a 31-0 wipeout of the Bills. Based on what Belichick has done in the past, we’re just not seeing any reason that New England is going to lay down to Houston in their regular season finale this year.

    Tom Brady: “It's our job to prepare to play and I certainly am. I'm out there doing all my regular practice stuff. I want to play and I want to do great. I want to have a great game against a team that is fighting for their playoff lives, and has a lot of great players and really challenges you in some different ways. It's a meaningful game for us, it's a meaningful game for them, too. It would be great for us to go win on the road in a real tough environment against a damn good team…. I don't want to lose a game. You don't just forfeit these games. Playing Houston, I don't want to see one of them in the offseason and them saying 'Hey, we beat you guys.' Screw that. You have to go out there and play….Close game. Blowout. We get behind. I'm expecting to play the whole game. I wouldn't see why I wouldn't.”

    Houston is not a ‘blowout’ team anyway, consistently unable to string two good halves of football together in the same game. The Texans have a losing SU record at home. They’ve covered only two pointspreads at Reliant Stadium all year, beating bottom feeders Seattle and Oakland, a pair of 5-10 teams. Houston is just 3-6 ATS as a favorite. And the Texans are most assuredly not a battle tested team, primed for a blowout win in the biggest game in franchise history as they try to keep alive for the playoffs. Houston is in ‘must win’ status for this game because they’ve been mediocre this season, and mediocre teams should not be laying a full touchdown to the Patriots.

    Kansas City Chiefs: +11.0 / 3*
    Kansas City didn’t lay down at Cincinnati last week, fighting hard right though the final possession of a seven point loss; a never-in-doubt pointspread winner. And there’s no reason to expect the Chiefs to lay down this week either, on the road against their biggest rival, Denver. With a first year head coach, a developing quarterback and a talented young roster, the effort level is still there late in the season, making the Chiefs a very attractive double digit underdog on Sunday.

    KC has shown real signs of life offensively in recent weeks. Running back Jamaal Charles has 400 yards rushing in the last three weeks, hitting the 100 yard mark in each one of those ballgames. WR Dwayne Bowe has 13 catches in the two weeks since his league-mandated suspension ended, providing an excellent complement to Chris Chambers on the other side. QB Matt Cassel has more than 500 yards in the last two weeks, making plays to his downfield targets. KC’s defense has held two of their last three opponents to 17 points or less, always good news for any double digit underdog.

    Denver faces this ‘must win’ game because they are not very good to begin with. The Broncos were hot early, ripping off six straight wins to open the season, in large part because they were able to win all the ‘coinflip’ games – four of them to be exact, including their miracle finish in Week 1 at Cinci, and their OT win over the Patriots. Since that time, however, Denver is a 2-7 team masquerading as a playoff contender, not the type of team poised to win their season finale by margin.

    The Broncos 2-7 dive includes three losses in their last four games at Invesco Field. We saw them as double digit favorites right here two weeks ago, in a game they lost outright to the Raiders. Their pedestrian Kyle Orton-led offense has been held under 20 points in six of their last nine games. And that offense is not likely to be able to extend any margin of victory here without their best playmaker, WR Brandon Marshall, in the lineup on Sunday. As a team, Denver hasn’t rushed for 100 yards in each of their last three ballgames – Marshall’s absence is a hurdle that makes this pointspread simply to high to climb.

    San Diego Chargers: -3.5 / 4*

    Money has been pouring in on the Redskins since these lines first came out, driving an opener of SD -8 down to the current number of -3.5. Even after the line move, there’s still no rush to bet this, with a very reasonable chance that we’ll see some -3’s popping up before kickoff.

    I know that the Chargers are going to be resting some starters in the second half, while giving their backups ample playing time. And bettors, as a group, rarely consider the relative strength of the backups. The reality right now is that San Diego’s backups are better than Washington’s starters. We’ll see plenty of Billy Volek at quarterback here, a veteran backup with 30 career games under his belt. A few years back he threw for 926 yards and eight TD’s in a two game span with the Titans when Steve McNair got hurt. And who can forget when Volek came in for an injured Philip Rivers to lead the Chargers to a playoff win at Indianapolis two years ago.

    Volek is not the only capable backup for Norv Turner – the Chargers have won of the deepest rosters in the league. We’ll see 2007 #1 draft pick Buster Davis at wideout in this game – he hasn’t even been activated for a single game this year, a clear indication of how deep the Chargers bench actually is. Volek: “I’ve always taken pride, even when I was with Tennessee and Steve (McNair) got hurt, to keep the momentum going. When a quarterback comes in and the play drops or just the rhythm drops, I think it can affect a team. But with the athletes we have here at the skill position, with the O-line that we have, I don’t have to do anything special.”

    The Redskins are a dead team here in Week 17. Their coaching staff is going to be fired after the game, and the roster is likely to face a complete overhaul. With a chance to make a statement against divisional rivals in each of the last two weeks, Washington laid down instead, losing to the Cowboys and Giants by a combined score of 62-12. Those losses look even worse considering the Giants 32 point loss at home last week to Carolina, and the Cowboys long term track record of failure in December. Even if the effort is still there on a meaningless trip to the West Coast for the season finale, Jim Zorn simply doesn’t have the horses to run with at this late stage of the season.

    The Redskins offensive line has been an injury riddled mess for months, the biggest single factor in their 2009 demise. Rookie Edwin Williams will start at right guard for the injured Mike Williams, the FIFTH different starter at that position this year. Tackle Stephon Heyer has been playing on one bad knee all year. Last week, he hurt the healthy knee. #2 WR Devin Thomas and safety Laron Landry didn’t make the trip to San Diego. Fellow safeties Reed Doughty and Chris Horton are on injured reserve, leaving the Redskins without any depth whatsoever at that key defensive position. Kareem Moore will make his first start of the season in the secondary, and aging backup CB Fred Smoot could see some playing time at safety as well. Lendy Holmes, an undrafted free agent from Oklahoma who has played in seven games on special teams also could get some time. The Redskins have no other safeties on the roster. Star defensive tackle Albert Heynesworth, after publicly ripping his teammates, isn’t likely to play on Sunday. Neither is starting linebacker Rocky McIntosh. Quarterback Jason Campbell is “sore all over.”

    So let’s get this straight. Washington is flying 3000 miles across the country for a lame duck head coach in a meaningless season finale, playing with backups and retreads all over the field on both sides of the ball, with the worst offensive line in football. San Diego’s backups are better than Washington’s starters, meaningless game for the home team or not.

    Cincinnati Bengals: +10.0 / 5*

    Think Cincinnati is going to lay down on national TV on Sunday Night and let the Jets roll into the playoffs? Think again! Cinci is coming to play here, period, ‘must win’ game for the Jets or not.

    Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis didn’t sound like a coach ready to back off in his press conference this week: “We're going to win the football game…. This football team, I don't believe, can turn it on and off because we're not mature enough.

    Quarterback Carson Palmer: “The whole team wants to win. We have a chance to knock somebody out. That's part of the fun of playing this game. Playing against the best defense in the league and going out and being successful gets you rolling for the next week in the wild-card game. They're a great defense across the board. It's a chance to compete against the best and try to improve and get that confidence rolling into the playoffs.”

    The Bengals have enjoyed a resurgent season, notching their first winning record since 2005. They have a winning SU record on the road and the underdog in Bengals games is 14-1 ATS so far this season, with Cinci going 7-1 ATS when catching points against anybody. That includes SU wins as an underdog at Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Green Bay, along with a ‘near miss’ three point loss at San Diego.

    Yet even with that success, Cinci is still searching for some semblance of respect. Not a single Bengals player made the AFC Pro Bowl this year, in part because voters never saw them on national TV. Carson Palmer: "As a player, you always want to play on Monday Night Football, and Sunday Night Football and Thursday night football. I don't think there's a guy in our locker room that doesn't want to do that.” This is a prime opportunity in prime time for Cinci’s players to earn some much deserved respect.

    New York QB Mark Sanchez has an 8-18 TD-INT ratio since the first three games of the season, and the Jets, as a team are just 5-7 since September. It’s surely worth noting that the Jets face this ‘must win’ game at home because they’ve lost repeatedly in previous ‘must win’ games at home. New York has suffered SU losses as a home favorite to Atlanta, Jacksonville, Miami and Buffalo in their last five home games – nary a playoff team in the bunch.

    The Bengals match up extremely well against the Jets. Sanchez has not been a reliable quarterback as a rookie; unable to carry the offense with his arm. The Jets are the #1 rushing team in the NFL, but Cinci has the #2 rush defense in the NFL – yards on the ground won’t be easy to come by for Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene here. That makes the SU victory tough enough for the Jets to accomplish, let alone the pointspread cover as double digit favorites.
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