6* NFC South G AM E OF THE Y EA R on Atlanta Falcons -1(-116 at 5dimes)
The Falcons have not had back-to-back winning seasons in the franchise's 44-year history. Coming off an 11-5 campaign last year, they sit at 8-7 this season. Even though they are eliminated from the playoffs, this team has proven that they want to become the first Falcons' team to accomplish back-to-back winning seasons. That has been evident the last two weeks, as they went on the road to beat the New York Jets 10-7 and crushed Buffalo at home last week by a final of 31-3. With Matt Ryan back in the lineup, this Falcons' offense is hitting on all cylinders. Their defense has allowed just 10 points combined and less than 500 yards of total offense in their last 2 games while forcing 6 turnovers. Offensively, they are playing sound football with no turnovers in their last two games. Tampa Bay is riding high off their upset win over the Saints last week, and they're in for an emotional letdown here following their biggest victory of the season. The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 0.5-3.0. The Buccaneers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games. Take Atlanta and lay the points.
5* W iseg uy AFC G AM E OF THE W EE K on Cleveland Browns -1(-105 at sportsbook)
Cleveland has a chance to put together their first 4-game winning streak in 15 years. They have a chance to close out the season with 4 straight wins for the first time since 1986. This team has not quit on their coach, and they are playing out the season. Though Jacksonville is still mathematically alive for the playoffs, their chances are slim to none. The Jaguars were 7-5, but they have dropped 3 straight games after their 7-35 loss to New England last week. The Jaguars are deflated, and they won't show up to play Sunday in Cleveland knowing that their chances at a playoff berth are all but over. Jacksonville is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) vs. poor passing teams averaging 5.7 or less passing yards/att. over the last 2 seasons. The Browns haven't needed much from their passing game of late, because their defense has been stout and their running game is rolling. They are allowing just 16.3 points/game in their last 3 games, and are rushing for 229 yards/game over their last 3 contests. Cleveland is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread this season. Take the Browns and lay the points.
5* W iseg uy NFL T OTA L OF THE W EE K on Packers/Cardinals OVER 43.5(-115 at 5dimes)
Both the Packers and Cardinals still have something to play for. Each is playing to improve their playoff seeding, while the Cardinals can even earn a first-round bye with a win and some help. That means each team will be going all out here, which favors a high-scoring game between two of the most potent offenses in the league. The Packers put up 28.5 points/game this season. They even score 29.9 points/game and put up 409 total yards/game on the road this season. The Cardinals average 24.5 points/game this year and have score 30 or more points in 3 of their last 4 contests. Against the Steelers and Seahawks the last two weeks, the Packers have put up an average of 42 points/game. The Packers are 10-1 OVER (+8.9 Units) after covering the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games over the last 3 seasons. The Cardinals are 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 2 seasons. Arizona is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 2 seasons. That adds up to a 25-2 (93%) Angle in favor of the OVER. Take the OVER 43.5 points here.
4* on Chicago Bears -3(-115 at sportsinteraction)
The Bears finally had something go their way last week, beating the Vikings in overtime 36-30. They'll come together as a team and carry that momentum into this Sunday's season finale in Detroit. The Lions haven't even been competitive recently, and they won't be Sunday either. Detroit has lost 5 straight games by an average of 19.6 points/game. They are without starting QB Matthew Stafford, and without him their passing game is virtually non-existent. Detroit has thrown for less than 200 yards in each of their last 5 games, and have committed 18 turnovers in the process. Their defense has given up more than 200 yards passing in 11 straight games, and Jay Cutler is coming off his best game of the season, throwing for 258 yards and 4 touchdowns against Minnesota. Detroit is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games off a road loss over the last 2 seasons. Take Chicago and lay the points.
4* on Pittsburgh Steelers -3(-114 at 5dimes)
The Steelers have fought too hard to keep themselves alive in the playoff hunt to lose now. They have been playing like champions the last 2 weeks, beating the Packers and Ravens who are two of the better teams in the league. The Miami Dolphins have taken a different route, getting behind big early to both the Texans and Titans the last 2 weeks and nearly coming back to beat them both, but came up short. Their hearts have been ripped out, and now at 7-8 their chances of making the playoffs are miniscule to say the least. The Steelers at 8-7 have a much better shot, but still need some help. The state of mind these two teams are in right now says that Pittsburgh is going to roll to victory in Miami Sunday. Plus, the Steelers are the better team and easily the best team in the league that is on the outside looking in right now. Home-field hasn't been much of an advantage for Miami over the last few years, either. The Dolphins are just 6-17 ATS in their last 23 home games. The Dolphins are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0. Pittsburgh is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 January games and they know how to get it done this time of year. Take Pittsburgh and lay the points.
4* on Indianapolis Colts +9(-110 at bookmaker)
Clearly, the Colts will be resting players this week. But they take on the Buffalo Bills, a team that has clearly packed it in. Buffalo went down to Atlanta and lost 31-3 to the Falcons last week. They won't be up for this game, because they aren't excited to play a Colts' team that will be resting their starters. The backups for Indy are very motivated here, because they know they let their team down last week by blowing a second half lead and letting the New York Jets come back to beat them. So the motivational factor favors the Colts here, with their backups wanting to make amends for their efforts last week. The Colts are 7-0 S.U. & 7-0 ATS in road games this season. With another victory, the Colts would finish the regular season unbeaten on the road for the first time since the 1968 team was 7-0 outside of Baltimore. They've never gone 15-1 overall. So there's still a lot of reason here for the Colts to be motivated to win. Take Indy and the points.
4* on New England Patriots +9(-121 at 5dimes)
Tom Brady will play Sunday as head coach Bill Belichick wants his team to finish off the season sharp, knowing they'll have to play next week. New England is still playing for either the No. 3 or the No. 4 seed, which could become a factor down the road as far as home-field advantage is concerned. This is what Brady said Belichick told him: “You’ll play. Don’t worry about that. You’ll be playing." “Close game, blowout, if we get behind,” he said. “I’m expecting to play the whole game. I wouldn’t see why I wouldn’t.” The Patriots are 20-4 ATS (+15.6 Units) when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) in the second half of the season since 1992. New England is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) vs. excellent passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games since 1992. With Brady likely to play, and this line being inflated due to the Texans' having a little more at stake, we'll take the value here with New England. Take the Patriots and the points.
B l a c K W i d o W / B i l L Y o u n G 01/03
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