DR BOB
MIAMI 25 Pittsburgh (-3.0) 22
Over/Under Total: 45.0
10:00 AM Pacific Time Sunday, Jan-03
Miami is still mathematically alive for a playoff spot, but most people see the Dolphins as out while they know Pittsburgh must win this game. That could be why the line is off in this game. Miami is actually slightly better than an average team, as they've faced a schedule that is 2.8 points tougher than average and have been out-gained by just 3.4 yards per game and out-scored by 1.6 points (making them 1.2 points better than average based on compensated points). Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has out-scored their opponents by 2.5 points per game while playing a schedule that is 1.1 points easier than average, which would make the Steelers 1.4 points better than average on a simple compensated points basis. Based on compensated points ratings (Pittsburgh just 0.2 points better in that regard) the Dolphins should be favored by 2 1/2 points at home.
My math model is way more complicated than that and I actually favor Miami by 1 1/2 points. My other model also favors Miami by 1 1/2 points, so getting 3 points at home is clearly good line value. It's pretty clear that the odds makers and the public are factoring in Pittsburgh's need to win this game, but needing to win and being able to are different things. After all, if Pittsburgh could win whenever they needed to then they wouldn't be in this must win situation to begin with. Must win teams are actually only 50-83-4 ATS in the final two weeks of the season when facing a team out of playoff contention and teams with playoff incentive haven't been performing well this year either (New York Giants against Carolina, Minnesota and New Orleans both playing with incentive to get home field advantage and both losing consecutive games to losing teams). That 50-83-4 ATS trend doesn't officially apply since Miami isn't mathematically out of the playoffs, but the idea behind that angle is in play here, as Pittsburgh is favored because of the must win situation being factored into the line, which the odds makers do because they know that Joe Gambler likes betting on must win teams against losing teams. Pittsburgh also applies to a 2-20-1 ATS late season situation that plays against teams that are 1 game over .500 (i.e. teams likely still fighting for the playoffs), so history is not on the Steelers side either. Miami is now just 1-8 ATS as a favorite, but the Dolphins are 12-9 straight up and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 as an underdog or pick, including 4-2 straight up and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 such games.
Even though the line value and situation favor the Dolphins here, I am a bit concerned about Ben Roethlisberger going against a vulnerable Miami secondary that has not been able to stop a good quarterback since limiting Drew Brees to 6.4 yards per pass play in week 7. My math model projects Roethlisberger to average a very good 7.4 yards per pass play but Miami has allowed 8 yards per pass play or more in their last 4 games against better than average quarterbacks. Pittsburgh would have to average 9 yards per pass play to merit being a 3 point road favorite here, which is extreme, so the value is still on Miami even if Roethlisberger has a great game. I'll consider Miami a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more.
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Tennessee was rudely eliminated from the playoffs on Christmas night by the Chargers, but the Titans are excited about the prospect of finishing the season at 8-8 after their 0-6 start (they'd be the first ever to do so). The other goal is to get running back Chris Johnson to 2000 rushing yards for the season and perhaps getting him the 234 yards it would take to break the single season rushing record of Eric Dickerson. I added a few more runs to my math model prediction, which lowered the Titans' scoring prediction a bit, but my math still favors the Titans by 7 1/2 points in this game. Tennessee is obviously much better offensively since Vince Young took over an Young has been 1.1 yards per pass play better than an average quarterback this season (7.1 yppp against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback). Add that efficient passing to Johnson's 5.8 ypr average and the offense is very good right now. Seattle's defense got worse as the season progressed and I rate that unit at 0.6 yards per play worse than average with their current lineup. Seattle is actually decent against the run for the season, but they gave up 5.2 ypr to the Packers last week in the first game without rookie star Aaron Curry, so perhaps the run defense isn't so solid (although I did not adjust the run defense down because of one game, which could be just random variance).
Tennessee's defense also got a boost this week with ineffective CB Nick Harper going on the injured list for the final game. Harper's absence makes room for Rod Hood to step back into the starting CB spot opposite star CB Cortland Finnegan. Tennessee's pass defense was very good in the 3 games in which Hood started (0.9 yards per pass play better than average) and then slumped back to mediocrity when Harper returned from his broken arm in week 11. Harper said his arm hadn't completely healed and it affected his play, which can be seen in the numbers. I think the Titans' pass defense will be from below average to pretty good now that Hood is back as a starter and Seattle's offense is a mess right now with their only dangerous receiver Nate Burleson sidelined. Seattle is 1.0 yards per pass play worse than average for the season and they've been 1.2 yppp worse than average in 2 games without Burleson (4.9 yppp against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average team). Seattle rushing attack goes from bad to average with Justin Forsett likely to get the bulk of the work this week with Julius Jones questionable to play. I rate the Titans' run defense at 0.2 ypr worse than average with LB Keith Bullock out, but my math model still only forecasts 4.9 yards per play for the Seahawks in this game while predicting 6.7 yppl for Tennessee even with the Titans running the ball about 60% of the time.
My math model favors Tennessee by 9 points in this game and the Titans are likely to bounce-back from last week's 17-42 loss to the Chargers, as teams that lose to the spread by 25 points or more are 84-41-4 ATS the next week since 2001. I would certainly make this game a Best Bet if not for the Titans' obvious attempt to get Chris Johnson as many rushing yards as possible, which may not be optimal for attacking a Seattle defense that is decent against the run and horrible defending the pass. That uncertainty is enough for me to pass unless the line drops to -3. I'll consider Tennessee a Strong Opinion at -4 or less and I'd take the Titans in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 (at -115 odds or better).
Dr. Bob 1/3
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