East Carolina tackles Arkansas in the Liberty Bowl in a matchup of two teams that each closed the season in a positive note. After sluggish 1-2 starts for both squads this season, the Razorbacks closed out 4-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS while the Pirates finished up 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS. ECU will be making its fourth consecutive bowl appearance for the first time in school history after winning back-to-back CUSA championships. In the process, the Pirates' senior class has won 33 games, just one shy of the program’s all-time record set from 1975-78. That will be their goal today. ECU will line up against an unpredictable Arkansas defense that got torched for 402 YPG this season and as you know, 400-yard defensive favorites are an automatic fade for us. In addition, the Hogs are a miserable 3-13 SU and 4-12 ATS as bowlers since 1984 (0-7 ATS against foes off back-to-back wins) while Arkansas HC Bobby Petrino is 1-4 ATS in the post season play. Meanwhile, East Carolina HC Skip Holtz is an immensely profitable 22-7-1 ATS when taking points, including 7-1-1 ATS against a foe off a SU loss. The clincher comes from our powerful database as it tells us to: Play Against any sub .750 bowl favorite off three ATS wins in its last three games versus an opponent that allows less than 24 PPG in the season if the favorite won seven or fewer games last season and the dog is off a loss or win of less than 14 points. That's because these favorites are 0-15 ATS in bowl games since 1980. With Liberty Bowl favorites having cashed just one ticket in the last five tries, look for the conference champ to upend the non-champ here tonight. We recommend a 3-unit play on East Carolina.
Marc Lawrence 1/2
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