The Razorbacks were the highest scoring team in the SEC, averaging 37.3 points a game to rank eighth in the country. They did most of their damage through the air as the running game produced only 136 yards a game. But behind the strong arm of QB Ryan Mallett, who led the SEC, the Razorbacks produced 303.3 yards per game passing; that being said, with a few weeks to prepare for this game, I expect Mallett to struggle to begin with against a speedy Pirates defense.
It's interesting to note that Arkansas has seen the total go "under" the posted number four of seven contests this year when playing against a team with a winning record and in three of its last four off a loss against a conference rival.
On the other side of the field: East Carolina (9-4) returns to the Liberty Bowl for the second consecutive season after defeating then-No. 18 Houston 38-32 in the Conference USA championship game. The Pirates are the first team to win consecutive titles since the conference switched to a two-division format in 2005.
The Pirates have forced at least one turnover in 29 consecutive games, with 19 takeaways in the past seven games; East Carolina has notched 20 sacks in the past eight games. LB Nick Johnson has a team-high 94 tackles and DT Linval Joseph has a team-high 12.5 TFL.
First-team all-conference DE C.J. Wilson (5.5 sacks) and DT Linval Joseph (12.5 tackles for loss) anchor a defense that ranked third in C-USA in TFL and fourth in sacks.
The Pirates have seen the total go "under" the posted number in four of five games this year when playing against a team with a winning record and in three of four games after two or more consecutive wins this season.
QB Patrick Pinkney has had a great run down the stretch, but I expect most of today's offense to center around RB Dominique Lindsay; the senior is the first Pirate to rush for 1,000 yards (1,029) since Chris Johnson tallied 1,423 yards in 2007. He averages 5.0 yards per carry and posted four 100-yard games this season.
Bottom line: Look for East Carolina to get into the backfield and disrupt Mallet's rhythm; when coupled with this strong O/U trends exhibited by both teams, the sharp money in this one is on the UNDER!
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons 1/2
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