It's common knowledge that the SEC is the strongest conference in college football, so Arkansas has immediate credibility in this contest against a Conference USA school. But this isn't about which team or conference I think is better. This is about where I feel the line value lies. And in this matchup with a spread of more than a TD, I feel strongly that the value is with East Carolina.
I went with the better defensive team yesterday with Ohio State over Oregon & their explosive offense. That turned out to be an easy winner. And I'm backing the better defensive team again today. Yes, Arkansas' passing offense is ranked 10th in the nation, but don't think for a minute that East Carolina can't hang with them.
The Pirates have already faced the nation's #1 passing attack, Houston. And while Houston got more than their fair share of yards & points, ECU still came out with a 38-32 win. The reason: Houston cannot play defense, and Arkansas' D isn't much better. Arkansas' D allows over 400 yards per game, and they rank 100th in passing efficiency defense. That will make it tough to get any kind of margin here. The Pirates o-line allowed only 11 sacks in 13 games (8th in the nation), so 6th-year senior QB Patrick Pinkney should have time to pick apart that swiss-cheese pass D of Arkansas.
Bottom line: I'll almost always take the better defensive team in big games, especially when getting points. And while ECU's D is nothing special, Arkansas' D is just plain horrible. A team that gives up over 400 yards should not be laying more than a TD against another bowl team. I truly expect Skip Holtz's boys to be able to hang here. Take the points with East Carolina.
Bryant write-up
Bet: #258 East Carolina +7.5
Reply With Quote