John Calipari and Rick Pitino are two of CBB's most successful coaches and quoting Calipari, "We've gone nose to nose many times in the NBA and in college and they were all good games. They were all wars and I would expect this is going to be the same." The third-ranked Wildcats (14-0) host the Cardinals (10-3) at Rupp Arena on Saturday and while Pitino-led teams have twice beaten Calipari-led teams in the NCAA tournament, things are different in this game. For the first time it's Calipari, not Pitino, who is coaching the favorite. It's Calipari, not Pitino, who has the roster filled with high school All-Americans. Then there is the fact that it's now Pitino, not Calipari, who will be viewed as the villain. Pitino abruptly left Kentucky after he led them to a national championship and three Final Fours in the 1990s for an ill-fated run coaching the Celtics. If that wasn't bad enough, he returned to college hoops at hated Louisville. Now throw in Pitino's tumultuous summer in which he admitted to having an affair with a woman later accused of trying to extort him for millions and Calipari looks pretty good. That's not easy, as he's now seen both of his Final Four teams at two different schools (U Mass and Memphis), forced to vacate those appearances due to rules infractions (of course, like Sgt Schultz in Hogan's Heroes, Calipari "knows nothing!"). Now to the game. The Wildcats are off to the best start in 32 years behind the play of freshman guard John Wall (17.2-4.0-7.5). How good would Kentucky be if Jodie Meeks (23.7 PPG last year) stayed in school? As is, two more freshman, the 6-11 Cousins (15.2-9.0) and guard Bledsoe (10.1), have joined Wall and the team's best returning player, the 6-9 Patterson (16.6-8.6), to form quite a nucleus. Two 6-7 swingmen who are both sophs, Dodson (8.7) and Miller (8.2) complete the major contributors. Louisville stumbled in early December losing home games to Charlotte and Western Carolina but enter this game on a five-game winning streak, helped by a renewed commitment to Pitino's full-court pressure D. The key will be, can Louisville press the Wildcats and the lightning-quick Wall? Pitino sure misses last year's dynamic duo of the 6-9 Clark (14.2-8.7) and the 6-6 Williams (12.5-8.6-5.0) but the 6-9 Samuels (16.4-7.6) is off to an excellent start to his sophomore season plus veteran guards Sosa (13.3-4.3 APG) and Smith (8.7-3.7-2.6) know how to handle the pressure of playing in a game like this. The 6-8 Swopshire (8.0-5.7) and swingman Delk (6.7) are also both quality players for the Cardinals. Kentucky's "passed every test" so far and while they may 'pass' this one as well, it won't come easy and I "want the points!"
REASON FOR PICK: My #1 Bowl Total for this season is on USF/NIU Over at 12:00 ET. Jim Leavitt is the only coach the USF program has had in its 13-year history. Saturday's International Bowl appearance marks the fifth straight bowl appearance for this young program and the Bulls will be looking for their third win in their last four bowl trips. The Bulls have had a nasty habit of getting off to fast starts the last three seasons, only to stumble down the stretch. USF opened 6-0 in 2007 but finished 9-4, 5-0 in 2008 while finishing 8-5 and '09 has been much of the same. The Bulls were 5-0 in mid-October but enter this game 7-5 with five losses in their last seven games. Getting back on the winning track would normally be the only storyline for USF in this bowl game but that's been overshadowed by a report that coach Jim Leavitt grabbed sophomore Joel Miller by the throat and hit him in the face during halftime of the team's November 21 game with Louisville. "I'm appalled at it. It's absolutely not true," Leavitt told the St. Petersburg Times. "It's so far out there. I'm very disappointed something like this would be written." Sound like Mike Leach? The school has retained an expert in workplace issues to assist with an investigation of the accusation. Northern Illinois was in the thick of things in the MAC in 2009 before losing its final two games to Ohio U and Central Michigan, the MAC title game representatives. The 7-5 Huskies are making their second straight bowl appearance and fourth in six seasons. However, as almost everyone should be aware, MAC teams are on a current 13-game bowl losing streak, going 1-11-1 ATS. Northern Illinois led the MAC in rushing at 202.4 yards YPG (4.9 YPC) behind the running of Spann (945 YR / 5.9 YPC / 19 TDs) and Brown (645 YR). Sophomore QB Harnish missed three games but returned for the team's last three, passing for five TDs (had just 11 all year) while throwing for 513 yards in his last two (vs Ohio and CMU). NIU was second in the MAC averaging 30.8 PPG and has shown an ability to step up in class this year, losing just 28-20 at Wisconsin and winning 28-21 at Purdue. However, neither of those schools own much overall team speed. In each of the last two International Bowls, Big East schools have 'toyed' with their MAC counterparts, as Rutgers beat Ball St 52-30 in 2007 and U Conn beat Buffalo 38-20 last year. Northern Illinois head coach Jerry Kill was quoted as saying, "It'll be the most speed we'll face all year," when talking about his team's matchup with USF. I agree and although USF freshman BJ Daniels has been erratic at QB, I expect he'll be just fine in this game. USF has gone 'over' in six of its last eight games and NIU has gone over in three of its last four, averaging 34.5 PPG. The Huskies have also gone 'over' each of the last three times they faced a team with a winning record. Additionally, we find the 'over' at 9-2 the last 11 times that the Bulls were listed as favorites in the 3.5 to 10 range. Every single International Bowl has finished with greater than 50 points (51 in 2007, 82 in 2008 and 58 in 2009) and this one should too. *10
Good Luck...Larry
REASON FOR PICK: My Daytime Dominator is on ECU at 5:30 ET. East Carolina returns to the Liberty Bowl for the second consecutive season (lost 25-19 to Kentucky last year). The Pirates are the first team to win consecutive C-USA titles since the conference switched to a two-division format in 2005 (beat then-No. 18 Houston 38-32 in the C-USA championship game on Dec 5). That win marked the school's fourth straight win (3-1 ATS), after the Pirates lost 16-3 to Va Tech at home on Nov 5 (Thursday night game). The Pirates averaged 36.0 PPG in their four-game winning streak with senior QB Patrick Pinkney stepping up "big time," after a mediocre season (up to that point). Pinkney has completed 66.7 percent of his passes with six TDs and zero INTs (in 129 attempts) while averaging 264.0 YPG through the air. Bobby Petrino (the classy guy who quit on his team in Atlanta after less than one season in 2007) went 5-7 in his first year at Arkansas but led the Razorbacks to a 7-5 season in 2009. Arkansas ran for just 136.0 YPG (4.4 YPC) and not a single RB ran for as much as 400 yards on the season. In comparison, ECU averaged just slightly more on the ground (149.6 YPC) but does own a quality RB in Lindsay (1,029 YR / 5.0 YPC). The Arkansas offense was led by QB Ryan Mallet (Michigan transfer who passed for 3,425 yards with 29 Tds and just seven TDs. This game could turn into a shootout, as neither team did a good job defending the pass in 2009. Arkansas D enters 104th in passing yards allowed (251.8 YPG), as opponents completed 59.8 percent with 21 TDs and 11 INTs. The ECU pass D ranks 110th in yards allowed (262.3 YPG), 62.3 percent completions and a 23-12 ratio. However, one can't ignore ECU's excellent record as an underdog under head coach Skip Holtz, going 21-11-1 ATS since Holtz took over in 2005. We're getting more a touchdown with a motivated team that's 9-2 its last 11 against teams with a winning record. Take the points. *8 Daytime Dominator
Good Luck...Larry
REASON FOR PICK: My Bowl Blowout GOM is on Texas Tech at 9:00 ET. Mike Leach did great things here at Texas Tech. Not only did he turn the Red Raider offense into a perennial power but he also took Texas Tech to 10 straight bowl games. He also was the Big 12 Coach of the year last season and has the most wins in Texas Tech history. Unless you've been taking a vacation from ESPN, you know that Leach is no longer with the team. After allegedly mistreating a player, he was suspended. When he subsequently attempted to sue the university, he was released entirely. Will the Red Raiders be able to recover? I believe the answer is a resounding yes. Most of the players are supporting the decision and they'll be out to prove that it was them, not Leach, which made the program great. In terms of talent, there is little question that the Red Raiders are the stronger team, particularly with the Spartans playing without several key starters. In case you missed it, Michigan State will play this game without 11 players after they were suspended by coach Mark Dantonio for their roles in a dormitory brawl. Running back Glenn Winston and defensive back Roderick Jenrette were dismissed from the team while starters Chris L. Rucker - the team's top cover corner - and receivers B.J. Cunningham and Mark Dell are among those suspended. Those losses are far bigger than the loss of Leach. Cunningham and Dell are bit losses to the offense and losing Rucker really hurts a secondary that ranks 103rd in the country and allowed 29 touchdown passes while recording only five interceptions - tied for the fewest in the nation. The Red Raiders are off back to back wins, including a 41-13 win over Oklahoma. On the other hand, the Spartans lost their last game, 42-14 vs. Penn State, falling to just 6-6 on the season. With the Spartans at only 25-47 ATS the last 72 times they were coming off a conference loss, look for the Red Raiders to exploit their suspect secondary en route to a blowout victory. *10
Ness 1-2-10
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