Northern Illinois’ goal is to ball hog to the tune of 35+ minutes of possession. They have the
bulk on the offensive front to make it happen vs. a defense that is built for speed. Husky
starting right tackle Kiel will miss his second straight game with an injury, but the bowl prep
has given the o-line the chance to play without him. They’ll be going up against two defensive
ends – Selvie and Jeanne-Pierre – who’ll be looking to impress NFL scouts so the power
run between the tackles will be key. This game is being played indoors on a fast track and
that’ll make Daniels that much more elusive. He has thrived in games against teams with
marginal team speed and UNI’s defense fits that mold. If the Illinois natives can keep Daniels
on the sidelines, he’s likely to get frustrated and try to force plays when he is on the field.
That strategy will work to a point, but the bottom line is that USF has better players and that’ll
be reflected in the final score.
SOUTH FLORIDA, 30-27
PAPA JOHNS BOWL
Legion Field – Birmingham, AL
SOUTH CAROLINA over CONNECTICUT by 6
South Carolina was mauled 31-10 by Iowa in last year’s bowl game. The Gamecock coaching
staff noted how much UConn reminds them of Iowa – so this is a chance at redemption.
Steve Spurrier’s defense knows that the Huskies will come at them with a power running
game involving lots of 2 tight end, 2 running back sets. That D is a 3-3-5 scheme that utilizes
team speed as a weapon…not exactly the perfect design for slowing the power ground
game. But, UConn QB Frazier doesn’t have the skills to beat them through the aif, allowing
the defense to focus on the run. Frazier even knows the plan saying, “We’ll attack them in
ways we’ll feel comfortable”. Judging by his 54% completion rate going up against one of
the nation’s best secondaries, we can safely assume comfort isn’t defined by Frazier chucking
it from the pocket. South Carolina QB Garcia will do plenty of chucking. The Husky secondary
ranks 104th nationally in pass defensive efficiency, allowing opposing QBs to hit 67%
of their passes. Garcia has several rangy athletes at whom to fire the rock and there’s a good
chance he goes over 300 yards passing on the day. Sounds like doom and gloom for the Big
East team but remember this UConn lost 5 games this year by a total of 15 points. They may
fall behind early, but their Rocky’esque demeanor will ensure that the final outcome isn’t
known until the final minute.
SOUTH CAROLINA, 34-28
COTTON BOWL
Cowboys Stadium – Arlington, TX
RECOMMENDED
OKLAHOMA STATE over MISSISSIPPI by 6
Lost in the shuffle of the Dez Bryant suspension and the high-powered spread offense
was Okie State’s best card – their defense. The Cowboys gave up a minuscule 2.7 yards
per carry. The secondary nabbed 14 picks in route to a top 30 national ranking in pass
defensive efficiency. Ole Miss runs a bunch of different stuff on offense – namely with
Wild Rebel QB/RB/WR McCluster – but the OSU defense has seen a lot and stopped a lot
this season. The strength of their defense is the linebacker corps and those are often the
guys tasked with slowing the read option attack. Once Ole Miss is forced to abandon the
run, that puts the onus on inconsistent QB Jevan Snead, a kid who has tossed 17 interceptions.
Put a little pressure on him and he melts like Frosty the Snowman. On offense,
injuries slowed Mike Gundy’s offense towards the end of the year, but the off-time has
been healing time especially for signal caller Robinson. Gundy will look to run the football
with talented backs Tolston and Hunter against a Rebel defensive front that is stout
– but one that ranks just 57th nationally against the run. Finally, the OSU seniors are
supremely motivated to (1) secure their 33rd career win – good for 3rd on the Cowboys
all-time list, and (2) nab the first 10-win season in 21 years.
OKLAHOMA STATE, 30-24
LIBERTY BOWL
Liberty Bowl – Memphis, TN
BEST BET
ARKANSAS over EAST CAROLINA by 20
Consider this a home game for the Hogs, who will take the short trip over the Mississippi
River to Memphis. Within the first week of ticket sales, the Arkansas faithful had gobbled
up 21,000 tickets – so expect to hear “Whoooo….Pig….Sooie!” for 60 minutes. As for
the team, QB Ryan Mallet said this week that “The bowl practices have been going very
well….I think we’re going to be very prepared for this team.” With a coach like Bobby
Petrino on your sideline, that shouldn’t come as a surprise. Mallet has a bevy or talented
WRs at his disposal and the rocket-armed QB will be going up against a secondary
that ranks just 57th in pass D efficiency. That number would be worse had ECU not
picked off 17 passes this season. Mallet doesn’t throw a lot of INTs. The Arkansas running
game will also play a role, as the stable of backs dedicate this game to injured senior
Michael Smith, who has played the role of mentor for the young pigskin carriers. Guys
like USC transfer Broderick Green and Dennis Johnson will ensure that the Pirate defense
doesn’t sag back in nickel coverage for four quarters. Probably won’t help the underdogs
that their defensive coordinator Greg Hudson was part of the FSU defensive coordinator
discussions through Christmas. Mallet & Co. will put up plenty of points to cover any deficiencies
that the Arkansas defense experiences. That D excels at getting backfield pressure,
which will disrupt what ECU wants to do with multi-dimensional QB Pinckney.
ARKANSAS, 44-24
ALAMO BOWL
Alamodome – San Antonio, TX
RECOMMENDED
MICHIGAN STATE over TEXAS TECH by 1
“Purdue passing game kept Michigan State's secondary busy,” said a headline back in
November. The Spartans managed to win that game 40-37 despite allowing 524 yards
from scrimmage, 373 through the air in 55 pass attempts by Purdue. Texas Tech’s signature
passing attack that throws on two out of every three downs figures to match or
surpass those numbers. But you have to respect MSU’s ability to outscore a conference
foe in that situation, as well as respect their head coach as a former Ohio State defensive
coordinator who won’t back down from the challenge of scheming up against Texas
Tech’s offense while his own offense is missing four suspended wide receivers among
12 total bad-boy suspensions. You can see it now, given the extra time to prepare: an
overloaded secondary in nickel and dime packages for the entire game. Plus, an offense
that bulks up on multiple tight ends to power its way down the center of the field, moving
chains, wearing down the Texas Tech defense, and shortening the game to be in position
to win it in the fourth quarter. If the Spartans were favored in their current situation,
you wouldn’t want to touch them with a 10-foot pole. But Texas Tech is a stubborn, fatcat
favorite that won’t change much, against a power-mouse aiming to steal the cheese
on this particular evening.
MICHIGAN STATE, 29-28
Sports Reporters NCAA bowls
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