Much like several previous ’09 bowl matchups, we fi nd two teams with
identical SU records but entirely different mindsets regarding their
postseason ‘reward.’ South Florida started the year on fi re, riding a 5-0
record to a No. 21 ranking in the USA Today coaches poll. But after the
loss of veteran QB Matt Grothe, replacement signal-caller B.J. Daniels
completed just 53% of his passes down the stretch and the Bulls ended
on a 2-5 slide, averaging only 18.9 PPG. So even though USF qualifi ed for
its 5th consecutive bowl appearance, HC Jim Leavitt and company can’t be
thrilled at being shipped off to the Great White North where few fans will
follow (yes, we know the game will take place inside the Rogers Centre but
Sunshine State fans will fi nd the going tough outdoors before the contest!).
Conversely, Northern Illinois reached its second straight bowl under
sophomore HC Jerry Kill – the fi rst time the Huskies have accomplished that
feat since joining the major-college ranks in 1969 – and you can bet the NIU
faithful who must regularly endure winters by Lake Michigan won’t mind
making the trek to Toronto. The Bulls come favored today strictly because
of the disparity between the two conferences. The Huskies’ combined
opponent win-loss percentage for 2009 checks in at only .400 while South
Florida tackled a .542 slate of foes. And even though both teams’ defenses
gave up virtually the same yards per game, NIU’s stop unit fi nished fi rst in
the MAC while the Bulls’ defense ranked No. 3 in the Big East. The Huskies’
season-ending 4-2 run also loses a bit of luster when we note that four of
NIU’s seven wins came against teams that combined to win a total of just
SIX games. Neither side has much to brag about from an ATS standpoint.
MAC bowlers are a woeful 1-8 SU and 0-9 ATS off a loss and HC Kill owns
a less-than-impressive 1-10 SU log at NIU versus bowl teams. MAC bowl
dogs are also 0-5 ATS versus an opponent off a loss and 0-8 SU and ATS in
bowl games since 2007 (all results were prior to Temple’s game with UCLA
in the Eaglebank Bowl). Yikes! But don’t head to the USF window just yet:
Big East bowlers are an unreliable 2-8 ATS versus an opponent off a loss.
The biggest positive in South Florida’s favor is coach Leavitt’s 17-5 ATS mark
against non-conference foes when favored by 13 or less points. The Huskies
will look to attack with the MAC’s leading ground game but USF matches
up well with future NFL defensive ends George Selvie and Jason Pierre-
Paul. All things considered, we can’t fi nd enough of an edge to challenge
what we think is a very sharp number. Instead, we’ll dial up Showtime On-
Demand and watch the fi nal few episodes of this season’s ‘Dexter’ where
we know there will be a kill or two.
.
LIBERTY BOWL
Liberty Bowl Stadium • Memphis, TN
Arkansas over East Carolina by 4
Ever wonder what former head coach and ESPN analyst Lou Holtz does
when he’s not on TV? Neither have we, but we’ll bet you a beer that he’s
spent more than a few hours on the phone with son Skip discussing how to
bring down the Razorbacks this afternoon. Thanks to the breakout play of
outstanding QB Ryan Mallet, Arkansas more than held its own in the brutal
SEC. Mallet set school records with 29 TD passes, 3,422 aerial yards, and
just seven picks in 367 pass attempts. Not surprisingly, the Hogs led their
conference in scoring with 37.3 PPG and fi nished No. 14 in the country in
total offense. But before you get bowled over by those gaudy stats, we
should remind you that East Carolina ain’t exactly chopped liver. The Pirates
are making their fourth consecutive bowl appearance for the fi rst time in
school history after winning back-to-back C-USA championships and the
squad’s senior class has won 33 games, just one shy of the program’s alltime
record set from 1975-78. ECU’s also got a pretty good QB of its own
in 6th-year senior Patrick Pinkney, who amassed 2,738 passing yards while
tossing six TDs and zero INTs in his last four games. RB Dominique Lindsay
is the fi rst Pirate to rush for 1,000 yards since the NFL’s Chris Johnson broke
the mark in 2007. But the best news for Holtz and his offense? They get
to line up against an unpredictable Arkansas defense that got torched for
almost 402 YPG (400-yard defensive favorites are an automatic fade for
us). More glad tidings for ECU backers: the Hogs are a miserable 3-13 SU
and 4-12 ATS as bowlers since 1984 (0-7 ATS against foes off BB wins), Arky
HC Bobby Petrino is 1-4 ATS in the postseason and Liberty Bowl favorites
have cashed just ONE ticket in the last fi ve tries. Holtz may not be setting
the pointspread world on fi re lately (11-14-1 last two seasons) but he’s
an immensely profi table 22-7-1 ATS when taking points, including 7-1-1
ATS against a foe off a SU loss. Yes, there’s no doubt we’ll be watching
Razorback QB Ryan Mallett on Sundays in the very near future but the
feeling here is ‘Father Lou’ will help ‘Son Skip’ fi nd a way for the Pirates to
shed the ‘Holy Ghost’ spell the SEC has cast over the C-USA. The Greenville
Buccaneers may not sail away with the upset win but they’ll have the ATS
treasure chest securely under lock and key. Amen.
ALAMO BOWL
Alamodome • San Antonio, TX
Texas Tech over Michigan St by 6
If our sole method of determining pointspread winners came from reading
the sports headlines, we’d suggest that the Spartans just call this one off
before getting totally undressed on national television. Yes, Michigan State
featured the Big 10’s top passing offense in 2009 but key receivers B.J.
Cunningham and Mark Dell are suspended, part of an 8-player contingent
that will miss today’s game. The action by HC Mark Dantonio stems from a
street fi ght between members of the football team and a campus fraternity
following the Spartans’ end-of-the-year awards banquet. MSU’s defense also
went into the tank at season’s end, allowing over 1,500 yards in its closing
three games, including a 42-14 annihilation at home against Penn State.
Performances like that won’t get it done against an explosive Texas Tech
offense that averaged 37 PPG, especially now that just-suspended HC Mike
Leach has put an end to his 3-QB rotation and settled on Taylor Potts as his
main man. Potts went the distance in season-ending wins over Oklahoma
and Baylor and could have a big day against a Michigan State pass defense
that picked off a mere fi ve passes all season (#103 in the nation). Another
plus for the Red Raiders is the location, a virtual ‘home game’ setting for a
team making its 10th consecutive bowl appearance. But if you’re reaching
for your wallet right now, we’d like to say, “Not so fast, my friend!” The ugly
truth is BOTH teams own terrible SU and ATS numbers in this matchup. On
the Texas Tech side, the Red Raiders are a pathetic 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS versus
fellow bowlers this season and they’ve lost the money in their last four bowl
games. If that’s not enough, Big 12 bowl favorites of six or more points are
only 1-7 ATS versus an opponent off an ATS loss and they’ve struggled to a
6-15 ATS mark as bowlers versus a Big 10 representative. The Spartans are
equally inept: they’re 0-5 ATS as a bowler off a loss and Big 10 bowlers that
allowed 38 or more points in the fi nal game of the season are a disastrous
1-10 ATS. When the Vietnam War was raging in the late ‘60’s, a popular
poster asked the question, “What if they gave a war and nobody came?”
We can update that slogan for today’s Alamo Bowl by saying, “What if they
played a bowl game and nobody bet on it?” We’ll be on the sidelines for
this ‘Suspension Bowl’ – and so should you.
PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL
Legion Field • Birmingham, AL
3* BEST BET Connecticut over South Carolina by 7
Now that the South Carolina legislature has decided against
impeaching governor Mark Sanford for his ‘transgressions’ with an
Argentinian mistress (hey, compared to Tiger, this guy’s a lightweight!),
residents of the Palmetto State can refocus their attentions on
today’s Gamecocks-versus-Huskies battle in Birmingham. And
before you get too carried away with SC’s impressive 34-17 seasonending
smackdown of hated Clemson where the Cocks rushed for a
whopping 223 yards, note that the victory was preceded by a 3-game
losing streak where Steve Spurrier’s troops were outscored by an
average of 29-14. Not so for UConn: the Huskies fi nished with a 3-0
SU run, including “the biggest win in the history of the program”
where they beat Notre Dame 33-30 in double overtime. A closer
look also reveals that Connecticut’s fi ve losses came by a total of
just 15 POINTS while the Gamecocks fi nished dead last in the SEC
in rushing for the third straight season. Those stats aside, bettors
may get starry-eyed over the fact that SC QB Stephen Garcia fi nished
second in the conference in passing yards and UConn has struggled
to defend opposing aerial attacks, yielding 245 YPG. South Carolina’s
formidable ‘D’ also ranks 15th in the nation in total defense and 3rd
in the SEC, behind only Florida and Alabama. But the Huskies bring a
much better balanced offense to town than last year’s run-oriented
unit, featuring current NFL player Donald Brown. More importantly,
our database informs us that bowl dogs off a win with a positive
team net YPR are a sterling 16-2 ATS versus an opponent off a win
with a negative team net YPR. That fi ts perfectly with the fact that
.750 or less bowl favorites whose OYPR is less than 3.5 and whose
team net YPR is less than 0 are just 8-24 ATS. And last but not least,
UConn makes an appearance in this week’s AWESOME ANGLE on
page 2. Yes, the Gamecocks should enjoy a signifi cant edge in fan
presence but Randy Edsall’s team (6-0 ATS as dogs this season) will
dedicate this game to CB Jasper Howard who was tragically killed
just hours after UConn’s win over Louisville in mid-October. Factor
in Edsall’s stout 23-9-1 ATS record off an ATS loss (20-4 L24) and SC
fans may wish they’d gone ‘hiking the Appalachian Trail’ instead of
tuning in to an upset win by a bunch of northerners wearing blue.
COTTON BOWL
Cowboys Stadium • Arlington, TX
Oklahoma St over Ole Miss by 3
‘Redemption’ is the theme for today’s game after both participants failed
miserably in their respective regular season fi nales against in-state foes. At
least Oklahoma State had some legitimate excuses: player suspensions and
a less-than-100% QB Zac Robinson (ankle and shoulder problems) played
a large part in the Cowboys’ ugly 27-0 loss to the Sooners at Norman. But
Ole Miss simply laid a really big one in their annual Egg Bowl battle with
Mississippi State. Facing essentially the same team they crushed 45-0 in last
year’s meeting when they outgained the Bulldogs 461-37, Houston Nutt’s
Rebels were totally outplayed in an embarrassing 41-27 beatdown as 7.5-
point road chalk. Nutt didn’t try to sugar coat the result, either. “Our players
are sick right now,” he said, “and I want them to be sick.” In order to heal
the patient by game time, Nutt will need to give QB Jevan Snead a stern
talking-to. Snead entered 2009 as one of the most hyped signal callers in
college football but fi nished the season completing just 54.3% of his passes
while posting a mediocre 20-to-17 TD-INT ratio (tossed three picks in the loss
to MSU). The Rebel defense will also have to regroup after getting gashed
for over 300 rushing yards by the Bulldogs – not to mention adjusting to
the absence of senior DE Greg Hardy who was lost for the season after wrist
surgery in November. Okie State’s stop unit, which improved a solid 76 YPG
over last year’s edition under new DC Bill Young, will focus on stopping
speedy, athletic RB Dexter McCluster, who emerged as both a serious running and pass receiving threat in the second half of the season. According to our
database, the Pokes should be up to the task. Playing in its fi rst New Year’s
bowl under HC Mike Gundy, OSU is 8-1 ATS off a shutout loss, 3-1 SU and
4-0 ATS off a loss versus SEC opposition and have rolled up 38 PPG in its last
three bowl appearances. However, the favorite in Houston Nutt bowls is 2-6
ATS and bowlers off a loss in the same bowl they won last year – like Ole
Miss – are just 3-12 ATS. We think the combination of an 11-point loss to
Oregon in last year’s Holiday Bowl and the recent egging by Oklahoma will
have the Cowboys riled up and ready to rope someone… and it should be
the Rebels. Deliverance in Dallas for the Cowboys, bowl style.
Marc lawrence ncaafb 1/2
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