[trap]

Malinsky

GAME: Northern Illinois @ South Florida Jan 2, 2010 12:00PM EST
SPORT: College Football Picks
PICK: South Florida
Offered at: -6.5
REASON FOR PICK: 4* #252 SOUTH FLORIDA over NORTHERN ILLINOIS

The bottom line for the M.A.C. now shows a hideous 13-game losing streak in bowls, and to fully understand that it must be noted that it is not because they are being forced to step all that far up in class – these are losses against mostly teams from their own class, and when they do face a team from a BCS conference it is someone that has had a disappointing season. So far in 2009 they have fallen victim to the likes of Idaho and Marshall, arguably the two weakest teams to earn bowl spots. And the reasons are simple – first, this league just does not have the speed and athleticism to match up against the rest of the nation when the opposition is taking the games seriously (keep in mind that some of those regular-season successes in non-conference games can come from opponents taking M.A.C. teams lightly). Second, most of the schools are based in locations that make December practices awkward and inefficient, at best. Which takes us to this game, which we see as simply more of the same, with a slow Northern Illinois squad subject to being fully exploited in this setting.

This will be the fourth straight season for the Big East to face the M.A.C. in this bowl, and the results so far have been deceptive – although the Big East is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS, the talent gap has been even wider than the scoreboards have been able to show. Two years ago Rutgers nearly pulled off the bowl rarity of a “Double 300”, rushing for 292 yards and passing for 303 in an easy win over Ball State. And LY’s 38-20 scoreboard win for Connecticut over Buffalo did not even come close to measuring the game on the field, with the Huskies out-rushing the Bulls by a 358-24 count, one of the widest gaps ever for that category in a bowl game.

So now we fast forward to this season and what is different? Not all that much. If anything the matchup becomes even more awkward, for while South Florida does have issues in terms of discipline year-in and year-out, the Bulls bring as much speed and athleticism as any team in the Big East, and that provides a tough challenge for a Northern Illinois team that is severely challenged in those areas. The Huskies play smart football and when in against their own class have been able to control the line of scrimmage, but they went 0-4 against bowl teams this season, including losses to light-weights Idaho and Ohio, and in what should have been their step-up game, that regular-season finale at Central Michigan, they were beaten by much worse than the 45-31 final score, allowing the Chippewas to roll to a 38-10 lead after three quarters, and over 200 yards both running and passing. Now they find the running lanes closed here, and a passing attack that produced only 151.7 yards per game, #109 in the nation, can not pick up the slack.

South Florida has played twice since the last time Northern was on the field, and practicing in Tampa in December is much more pleasant than what the Huskies have had to do. The time off provides the opportunity to finally tweak the offense around B. J. Daniels, who had to go right into the mix when Matt Grothe went down, and Daniels had to learn under real pressure, with seven of his nine starts coming against bowl opponents. In throwing for 1,766 yards and 12 TD’s, and running for 798 yards and two more scores, he brings an explosiveness this defense rarely faces, and the added practice time means a chance to get more comfortable in the offense, creating the opportunity for a lot of big plays.
F.A.S.
G/L

[bookie]

Thanks for posting this. I especially appreciate the chance to read the writeup--makes what's happening in the game interesting beyond whether the cover happens or not.

Anybody got any of his other plays?