We believe the value in this game is on the Cincinnati Bearcats plus the 13 points, and Over the posted total of 57. We suggest that you play the game at 1% of your bankroll, and the total at 1.5% of your bankroll.
Motivation: This will be the first game Florida has played in quite some time where the Gators don't have a national championship at stake. Just how motivated will the Gators be? Will the really care enough to put forth a solid effort for four quarters?
On the other side of the field, the Bearcats will be focused and motivated. Unlike Florida, they really have something to prove here. (1) They can show that they can win without Kelly, and that (2) they can compete with the SEC elite. Also, with a win (3) they would finish undefeated, with a solid argument for being the best team in the country.
Matchups: Florida doesn't have nearly as many offensive weapons as the Bearcats do. Sure, they have a load of talent and plenty of guys who can run very, very fast on both sides of the ball. Yet, they don't have an abundance of guys who consistently make big plays down the field. The Bearcats are small up front and will likely be pushed around by the bigger, stronger offensive line of the Gators. Cincinnati is built defensively to stop spread attacks with its overall team speed. As a result, Florida's power option will present huge problems between the tackles.
Cincinnati's no-huddle, pass-happy system will also present huge problems for the Gator secondary. The Bearcats will force Florida to either (1) spread out four and sometimes five wide in man-to-man coverage, or (2) fall back into zone coverage and hope Pike makes mistakes. Both are unfamiliar sets for the Gators as they are usually able to play standard man-to-man defenses against their opponents in the SEC. We really don't see Florida trying to go man all the way across here. In man coverage a mistake by just one defender can result in a quick six points for the offense. Florida will be trying their damndest to avoid a shootout. But, can they pressure Tony Pike, who gets rid of the ball so quickly from the shotgun, with just four pass rushers? I think not! I look for him to have a big day, with lots of completions in the 5-15 yard range.
Bottom Line: We look for the Bearcats to easily stay within the posted line, and move to 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog. On the flip side, Florida will put up enough points to fight off the Bearcat upset and take the game over the posted total, but will fall to 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games overall.
Cincy v. Florida
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