Missouri finished a lack luster season with just seven wins on the season and part of that was being inconsistent combined with the ability to lose games at home where they finished just 3-3. They better be on top of their game when they face the Navy midshipmen.
Navy just defeated Army (again) and walked away with the commander’s trophy. Navy proved they can travel well and won in some intimidating venues like South bend. The thing with the Navy team is they are disciplined and always prepare to play tough.
These teams play two different styles on offense as Missouri plays more of a run-n-gun and Navy grinds it out with the Triple Option, but what may surprise this team is the defense that Navy plays. They are very good on defense and have better numbers than Missouri in every category. The Tigers have much more than that against them for this game against Navy. The 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall, 1-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games in December. Navy is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in December and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Bowl games. Take them to win this game outright.
Texas Bowl Pick: Navy +6.5
Houston is off a very good year and they had the usual offensive explosion. They head up against the Air Force in this bowl and when a team plays a service academy it is never easy. The disciplined style of football will begin to wear on even the best teams in the country.
Houston had a good run and one ten games but came up short in the championship game losing to East Carolina. Case Keenum has been an outstanding quarterback and has put up some big numbers against opponents this year. This is the time for them to make up for that game. The Air force academy has lost to many of the high power offenses they have faced on the season such as BYU and Utah. They will face another tough offense that averaged over 43 points a game on the season when they face the Cougars. Air Force has always been a tough opponent but they are in way over their head for this game against Houston. The Falcons are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog and 2-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. The Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss. Take the Cougars as they will win this game by double digits going away.
Armed Forces Bowl Pick: Houston -4.5
Oklahoma was looking forward to a great football campaign in 2009 but it went south early as they lost quarterback Sam Bradford due to injuries and lost plenty of games along the way. BYU knocked out Bradford and it seemed like the Sooners spent the rest of the year looking for their identity. The Stanford Cardinal had another impressive campaign and it looks like they will be a mainstay in the college football top 25 as long as they keep playing like this. They have a great offensive year behind Heisman candidate, Toby Gerhart and the season was highlighted with another signature win over USC that ended in a blowout. This line jumped off the page at me when it opened at -12 and now has fallen (rightfully so) to just eight points as Oklahoma is a big favorite. It does favor Oklahoma that they are playing this game in Texas but the Cardinal seems to travel well. This line is this high fro a reason it’s because OU has the edge on defense in this game and can stop the vaulted offense of the Cardinal. Stanford Cardinal is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. The Sooners are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game and 3-0-1 ATS against the Pac 10. Look for Oklahoma to roll in this game.
Sun Bowl Pick: Oklahoma -8
This game looks like a yawner on paper as both teams come into this game with a record of 6-6 and neither team has impressed this year on the field. Thanks to a crazy amount of bowl games there will always be room for two .500 teams trying to get that one last win and a bowl victory. Minnesota has been here before and in fact they played here last year but for Iowa St they are relishing playing in this game after finishing just 2-10 last year. Day after day Iowa State quarterback Austen Arnaud will run the same plays against the same opponents. But in December it’s a good kind of tedious. This is the first time Arnaud, and most of the Cyclone roster, have been able to practice this late in the year preparing for a bowl game. “Think about where we were last year, 2-10, sitting at home,” Arnaud said. “What we are doing is embracing the fact that we are practicing and have an opportunity to play on New Year’s Eve and get ourselves a win.”
But before ISU (6-6) takes on Minnesota (6-6) in the Insight Bowl on Dec. 31, the Cyclones will have gone through several weeks of practice that coaches and players compare to a winter version of spring football.
“Right now is all about developing both fifth-year seniors playing their last game and true freshmen going through their first season and bowl preparation,” Rhoads said. “Right now, it’s as the whole season has been, about improvement.”
When you look at these numbers across the board they seem even except for a glaring problem with Minnesota on the road. In road games they have had problems on offense as they average just 13 points a game. This is a road game and that could mean trouble! The Golden Gophers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Bowl games as a favorite and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games. The Cyclones are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 vs. Big Ten and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss. Take the small number in this contest.
Insight Bowl Pick: Iowa St. +3
The Tennessee Volunteers may have a bright future ahead of them with Lane Kiffin at the helm but it was a rough start. The Volunteers have talked the talk but have yet to really walk the walk as the season has been full of stories off the field that has hurt the team.
For Virginia Tech it is business as usual as Frank Beamer has the Hokies on to another decent bowl game after winning nine games in the regular season. The special teams played “Beamer Ball” all year and they are ready for this game.
The stat that sticks out right away is the play on the road. The Hokies are 4-1 on the road while the Volunteers are just 1-3 on the opposing field. This means the Vols don’t travel and focus well on the road. It will be an even bigger feat to take down the Hokies since they have every edge over this Volunteer team. The Volunteers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games and 4-16-2 ATS in their last 22 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. The Hokies are 8-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. This Hokie team still has a lot to play for and the defense will overpower the Volunteers and win and cover the number in the Chick-fil-A Bowl.
Bang the Book 12/31
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