OVERALL: 10-5

(229) NAVY vs. (230) MISSOURI
StatFox Steve says: What makes Navy such a strong wager as an underdog
in bowl games, besides its discipline and passion for going wire-towire?
To me, it’s the fact that the Middies play an offense that is so rare
in the college ranks anymore, and that makes it tough for opponents to
prepare for, even with the two- or three-week layoff. How do you simulate
the Midshipmen’s effectiveness in such a short period of time when
they have been perfecting it for years? As such, this is a difficult spot for
Missouri, which already was struggling defensively, having allowed
29.4 points per game in its final seven. The Tigers were also just 2-6 ATS
down the stretch. They may be bigger, stronger, and more athletic, but
I question their motivation and expect Navy quarterback Ricky Dobbs
to give them fits. Navy 31, Missouri 30.





** Armed Forces Bowl - Amon Carter Stadium - Fort Worth, TX
(233) AIR FORCE vs. (234) HOUSTON
StatFox John says: The nation’s top passing team will be facing the nation’s
best pass defense in this rematch bowl game. Houston has averaged
a whopping 581.1 yards per game this season. That will be the
biggest difference here, as evidenced by this very profound StatFox
Power Trend: AIR FORCE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus excellent offensive
teams - averaging >=6.25 yards/play over the last three seasons.
The average score was AIR FORCE 21.0, OPPONENT 34.2. This has been
a special season for Houston overall, and having just locked up coach
Kevin Sumlin to a contract extension, I don’t expect anything but a focused
effort on the Cougars’ part. Look for Houston to win by at least a
touchdown, taking care of business a little more convincingly than last
year.






** Insight Bowl - Sun Devil Stadium - Tempe, AZ
(237) IOWA STATE vs. (238) MINNESOTA
StatFox Dave says: The Golden Gophers will need to generate more
than their season average of 13.0 points per game on the road if they
want to keep this game close. Even if Minnesota could improve this
game looks to be an Iowa State upset. The Statfox Powerline agrees as
it has Iowa State as a one-point favorite. Also bowl games pitting the
Big 12 versus the Big Ten have been dominated by the underdog, as
that team owns a 14-7 ATS record. Iowa State should have no problem
winning this game outright. Getting the 2.5 points is the icing on the
cake.





** Chick Fil-A Bowl - Georgia Dome - Atlanta, GA
(239) TENNESSEE vs. (240) VIRGINIA TECH
StatFox Doug says: One of my favorite underdog plays this season was
Tennessee, which sported a 3-0 ATS record in that spot until injuries finally
caught up to the defense at Ole Miss. It will be an underdog once
again. However, I’m going the other way and taking Virginia Tech. The
Hokies lost two games in which they were favored and being a road favorite
against ACC champion Georgia Tech looks like a bad number
today. The Hokies have won, and covered, four in a row against lesser
competition and Tennessee, with its five losses, has plenty of warts.
This isn’t your traditional Virginia Tech defense. Nonetheless, it feeds
on momentum and head coach Frank Beamer’s boys are 12-3 ATS after
allowing 17 points or fewer in four straight games. Go with the Hokies
by double digits




The Sun Bowl is looking for a better showing than the 3-0 display put on a year ago, as Stanford and Oklahoma will do battle in El Paso. This
bowl series had typically been an exciting one, dominated by underdogs, 11-1-1 ATS prior to the 2008 game. The Pac-10 has also won five straight games. All of
this would seem to bode well for Stanford, which comes in as a heavy nine-point dog to Oklahoma. The Cardinal, who will be without starting quarterback Andrew
Luck, were 8-4 this season to earn their first bowl bid since ’01. Oklahoma was 7-5, but quite possibly the nation’s most inconsistent team. The Sooners have lost
five of their L6 bowl games, both SU and ATS, but the one win was their only non-BCS game in that span.
StatFox Forecaster: OKLAHOMA 30, STANFORD 29