7-8 IN BOWLS



MISSOU / NAVY

Recommendation: Over 52.5
Considering all that it lost and not being known as a program that
can just reload on the fly, it wasn’t a bad season for Missouri. Take
away the fourth quarter meltdown against Nebraska or the hiccup
at Baylor and you are looking at a potential nine- or 10-win
team. Navy has been producing eight- and nine-win seasons for
what seems like forever. It was another year of a couple of upsets
and two wins against fellow service academies. Based on various
power ratings, this line is more than fair. Oddsmakers likely respect
the time allowed for the opposition to prepare for Navy’s
option attack while the betting marketplace typically shows favor
towards the Midshipmen’s ability to perform as an underdog.
Our interest however is not on a side but the total. Navy’s defense
looks good on paper but the schedule lacked a lot of offensive
firepower. Its top two opponents in terms of total offense, Hawaii
and Notre Dame, both moved the ball with relative ease. Even winless
Western Kentucky got in the act with 434 yards and a respectable
22 points. Missouri’s total offense checks in at 33rd nationally
and outside of games against defensive
stalwarts Texas and Nebraska,
moving the football was rather easy.
We especially like the improvement
of rookie quarterback Blaine
Gabbert who rebounded from a shaky midseason by throwing
for 1,400 yards, eight TDs and no INTs his last four games.
Over the last five years, Navy averaged 32 ppg in the postseason.
The only time it was held under 20 was last year’s 29-19 loss to
Wake Forest, who was well prepared having seen the Midshipmen
three times in two years. We’ll take the over in this one.





Recommendation: Houston -4
Houston and Air Force will meet for the second straight season
in the Armed Forces Bowl following last year’s 34-28 UH
victory. There are very few offensive categories nationally
that the Cougars aren’t atop of, led of course by the golden
arm of quarterback Case Keenum. This should be an entertaining
contest as Houston’s explosive offense is countered
by a porous defense that has shown little ability to stop the
opposition no matter what means of transportation they
choose. In the case of Air Force, the option attack should have
a big day running the ball. Defensively, Air Force was very
solid this season allowing just 285 ypg of total offense. However,
the Falcons allowed a season-high 38 points and 498
total yards in a recent loss to BYU which suggests Houston’s
explosive offense, with more weapons, could produce even
better numbers. Houston picked up early season signature
wins at Oklahoma State as a big underdog and then against
Texas Tech the following week. Air Force’s lone quality win
came against Wyoming, who is
one of the worst teams to reach
the postseason. Air Force could
struggle to make enough plays
through the air if they fall behind
to the high-flying Cougars. The lone concern for Houston appears
to be motivation, as the big wins and hot start couldn’t
propel them to a Conference-USA title. The offense however
is not likely to be slowed, and while Air Force is the more disciplined
and perhaps determined team, the Cougars should
prove to be too potent in front of their home state fans





Recommendation: Stanford +8

The Sooners began 2009 with one thing in mind and that
was to avenge their BCS Championship loss. With Sam Bradford,
a pair of 1,000-yard rushers and a defense that projected
as one of the nation’s best back in action, it was a reasonable
goal. But after a slew of injuries, most notably Bradford’s
shoulder, we wonder how motivated the five-loss Sooners
are for a bowl game of little magnitude. Quarterback Landry
Jones filled in admirably but he rarely played his best football
away from home. Jones had 18 TDs and just four INTs in Norman
but a dismal 4-to-7 ratio on the highway. His offensive
line was suspect for much of the campaign and the ground
game never got going and averaged just 4.08 ypc according
to our ACCU-Stat numbers. Jones won’t be the only backup
quarterback under center though as Stanford is expected to
be without Andrew Luck (broken finger). While we certainly
take note of this injury it doesn’t play as big of a role as
Bradford’s. Luck’s backup is senior Tavita Pritchard who was
the full-time starter in 2008 and led the Cardinal to solid results.
It also helps that Pritchard
has Heisman finalist Toby Gerhart
to rely on as well. The bruising
running back rushed for an NCAAbest
1,736 yards and 26 TDs this
season. And while Oklahoma’s motivation comes into question
Stanford’s certainly doesn’t as this is the school’s first
bowl appearance since 2001 and the first-ever for head coach
Jim Harbaugh. We’ll gladly take the points with the Cardinal
and it wouldn’t surprise us to see a straight up victory.




MINNY/ IOWA ST
Recommendation: Over 48

In similar fashion to Minnesota a year ago, Iowa State came from
way off the grid to reach its fi rst postseason since 2005. The Cyclones
certainly benefi ted from some favorable scheduling and
an overall decline in the Big XII, but while most of the league was
reeling, ISU made strides. Minnesota failed to take the next step
towards contending in the Big Ten but like Iowa State, this is a
program not too far removed from being a true bottom feeder.
Statistically, Minnesota’s offense was about as poor as you can get
for a major conference school. They averaged less than 300 ypg
of total offense and are without their best player, wide receiver
Eric Decker. But a closer look at the schedule shows the supposed
year-long offensive drought could have been attributed to nothing
more than a couple of games in which the Golden Gophers
were outclassed. Against Penn State, Iowa and Ohio State – all on
the road – Minnesota came away with seven total points. In their
remaining games, some of which without Decker, they averaged
exactly 28 ppg. The same can be said for Iowa State, who if you
eliminate games against Nebraska,
Oklahoma State and Iowa, came
away with some solid offensive performances
(25.8 ppg). Even with the
offensive ineptitude of most of the
Big Ten and Big XII, we still have two teams that combined to
allow over 400 ypg and nearly six yards per play in league play.
And with two talented but sometimes erratic quarterbacks, their
cause should be helped as the sack numbers for both squads
rank at or near the bottom in their respective conferences. The
price is good enough for our money to come in on the over.







TENN/ VATECH
Recommendation: Under 49.5
Reputation instantly leads college football followers to the conclusion
that these teams are extremely tough defensively. While
Virginia Tech and Tennessee allowed only 15.8 ppg and 21.0 ppg
respectively, a closer examination shows that they have uncharacteristically
had troubles against the run all season long. The Hokies
played eight bowl teams allowed an average of 4.2 ypc in those
games. They even yielded 4.3 ypc and 4.7 ypc to Maryland and Virginia
down the stretch. Similar results were compiled by Tennessee
which allowed 4.4 ypc to the nine bowl teams it faced. Those
numbers even more suspect when analyzed via our ACCU-Stats.
Highly respected defensive coordinators Bud Foster of Virginia
Tech and Monte Kiffi n of Tennessee each had 33 days to correct
these shortcomings but expect both run games to test one another.
Throwing the football fi gures to be far more diffi cult based
on the two top ten pass defense rankings. Quarterbacks Jonathan
Crompton and Tyrod Taylor of Tech have made signifi cant strides
passing this season but could struggle here. UT cornerback Eric
Berry will eliminate half the fi eld and
the Hokies’ swarming secondary will
blanket the Tennessee receivers. With
each team motivated to play in this
game, the pending result boils down
to four questions: Which team will have success running the ball so
they can utilize play action? Can Tennessee control Taylor’s scrambling
ability? Which offense will make the fewest mistakes? Who
will win the special teams battle? The offenses will come prepared
with some trick plays but we trust the defensive coordinators’
abilities to devise solid game plans. Play this one under the total.