OVERALL: 7-7-1
BEST BETS:
RECOMMENDED:

TEXAS BOWL (Houston, TX)
Missouri over Navy by 2
In making Missouri the favorite by nearly a full touchdown the oddsmkaers are
issuing a statement here about the programs that we can not reconcile. There was
nothing special about the Big 12 this season, and when the Tigers did have their
step-up opportunities in league play they were waxed vs. Texas, Nebraska and
Oklahoma State by a combined 65 points. And because of the style of football
played throughout that conference this autumn there has been little preparation
time for the Missouri defense against a running QB, and the kind of machinations
that the Navy offense brings to the table. That gives us a well-seasoned underdog
making its sixth straight bowl appearance in an attractive setting, especially with 29
players on the Midshipmen roster coming from the state of Texas, which adds an
extra dimension. But while Ricky Dobbs and the offense will find some room
against a defense that will be slow to react, there is still that problem of a lack of
depth and coverage skills coming from the secondary. Rating 52nd in pass efficiency
defense was more a result of not facing many quality passing teams that the
abilities of the defense, and they were dead last in the nation in the key tackles for
loss category. If Blaine Gabbert gets the expected time in the pocket the Tigers passing
attack finds a way to win the game, but closely. MISSOURI 29-27.




ARMED FORCES BOWL (Fort Worth, TX)
Houston over Air Force by 8
Déjà vu? Yes, these two are meeting in this bowl for the second straight season, and
we have the rare setting of two non-conference teams playing for the third time in
15 months. We believe that familiarity plays a key part in the way that this game
will flow. While both teams run a “system” offensively, Air Force had to make due
with rather limited personnel in the skill positions this season, with Tim Jefferson’s
ankle keeping him from developing at QB, and no real threat at RB. In the third
go-round in such a short span, we can expect the Cougars to do a decent job of getting
their X’s in the right places, and while they are not staunch enough up front
to completely shut the Falcons down, they can make them work for whatever they
can get. That means few big plays for the Air Force offense. It is a different story
when Case Keenum takes the field. Yes, the Air Force defense shows a #21 in pass
efficiency on paper, but that was against a schedule of teams that could not throw,
and remember the way that we had Brigham Young near the top of the page in the
final game, when the Cougars riddled them for 38 points and 498 yards, 377 of
them in the air. No matter how many times they see this playbook the Air Force
defense lacks the depth in the secondary to hang for four quarters, and with the
Houston regular season extending two weeks longer, we expect to see the Cougars
much closer to their top playing rhythm. HOUSTON 35-27.




SUN BOWL (El Paso, TX)
Oklahoma over Stanford by 13
At another time this could have been a question of attitude for Oklahoma. The
Sooners entered the season aiming for much loftier goals, but injuries took a toll,
and being relegated to El Paso on New Year’s Eve is far from their original aspirations.
But we saw something different from them in the final game of the regularseason,
that 27-0 domination of Oklahoma State that was every bit what the scoreboard
indicated, and that may carry over here into something different from the
usual indicators for such a game. That can spell trouble for a Stanford team that
does not match up well. Toby Gerhart had a brilliant season running through some
soft Pac 10 defensive interiors, but now he has to deal with Gerald McCoy and
Adrian Taylor in the middle of the Oklahoma line. It is difficult to expect anywhere
near the usual level of production from the Cardinal ground game, and that puts a
lot of pressure on whoever is at QB for Stanford, be it Tavita Pritchard, or Andrew
Luck if his broken finger heals in time. Meanwhile the best thing the Stanford
defense did this season was sitting and watching their own offense control the
chains, and after allowing 32.3 points per game vs. bowl competition they may be
on their heels throughout against the speed of the Oklahoma skill players. OKLAHOMA
30-17.



INSIGHT BOWL (Tempe, AZ)
Minnesota over Iowa State by 4
Here is why it is great to be in a major conference – because of tie-ins you can have
a non-descript 6-6 season, yet still find yourself in a nice warm place to play on
New Year’s eve. And what makes it better for each of these teams is that they drew
an opponent that had just as mediocre of a season as they did, which means a genuine
chance to win. For Minnesota it means a much better chance than the Golden
Gophers had in this same bowl vs. Kansas last year, when they fell 42-21 as +8, and
with the senior class having only missed a bowl trip one time there is an appreciable
edge over an opponent that lacks that experience, and has a first-year coaching
staff leading the way. But Tim Brewster’s team just does not bring enough for us to
call anything more than this slight margin. The offense fell down as badly as feared
when WR Eric Decker was injured, and for all of the talk about new blocking
schemes and emphasizing the run, the ground game never really materialized. But
three trips in four years to the same venue has them much more settled than this
particular opponent, and that experience means just enough to get the outright win
against an opponent that only offers a few speed bumps, and no road blocks. MINNESOTA
28-24.




CHICK FIL-A BOWL (Atlanta, GA)
Virginia Tech over Tennessee by 1
There was not much that happened in 2009 to indicate that Virginia Tech belongs
in this range as the favorite; what we are seeing is a lingering reflection of the perceptions
of these programs heading into the campaign. The Hokies were considered
national championship contenders but opened with a 34-24 loss to Alabama
on this field that was not nearly as close as the score, and two weeks later escaped
with a one-point home win over Nebraska in which they were physically out-played
again. If either of those box scores were more reflected in the scoreboard that lofty
status would have gone away, and there was nothing all that special through their
A.C.C. schedule. The defense is once again solid, but not as dominating as in the
past at the line of scrimmage, and while the running game appeared to develop late,
that may have been more a case of facing the bottom of what was a weak conference.
That leaves Tyrod Taylor as the wild card, but with Tennessee having ample
time to prepare a game plan to keep him in the pocket, and also having a good
shadow defender in Eric Berry, his playmaking can be held in check. We will lean
to Frank Beamer’s fundamentals over Lane Kiffin in a close game, but taking the
points is the play between two rosters close in talent. VIRGINIA TECH 21-20.