6-9 IN BOWLS

Air Force 30 - Houston 27—They meet again. Oddly enough, this matchup
has become something of a fixture in the Metroplex, with the teams battling for
a third time in the past 15 months in Dallas or Fort Worth. Last year’s regularseason
meeting was moved from Houston to SMU’s Ford Stadium due to
Hurricane Ike in the Gulf, with Air Force holding on for a 31-28 win despite failing
to complete a pass. UH subsequently earned its revenge in this bowl game last
December 30, never trailing but never pulling away, either, in a 34-28 final,
earning the narrow cover on a late 37-yard FG.
That familiarity with one another presents some interesting dynamics in this
rubber match, further magnified by their absolute contrast in styles. As is often
the case in matchups between such radically different offensive philosophies,
it’s the respective defenses that will likely determine the outcome. In that
regard, it’s worth noting that the Cougs did a better job slowing the potent Falcon
option in last year’s rematch (allowing only 245 YR after getting gouged for 380
YR in the first meeting), but still figure to be hard-pressed to slow AFA’s ground
assault after consistently failing to slow competent infantry attacks throughout
‘09, ranking a poor 113th vs. the rush. And it’s not lost on Falc HC Troy Calhoun
that his option is a good way to move the chains and clock and keep UH’s video
football and prolific QB Case Keenum (43 TDP; 75 pass attempts in the C-USA
title game!) on the sidelines. Meanwhile, the veteran Force “D” has a chance to
match wits with Keenum after facing him twice a year ago and ranking first
nationally vs. the pass this season. If the Falcs option can indeed shorten the
game, we like their chances to score a mild upset.



Missouri 36 - Navy 24—This is the seventh straight bowl appearance for
Navy, which continues to punch above its weight on the strength of a relentless
rushing attack and a defense that mostly makes up with moxie what it lacks in
overall size & speed. The Midshipmen are established road warriors who love
playing in Texas, the home state of several players. And the well-synchronized
Navy triple-option offense can flabbergast even the soundest of stop units.
Still, we doubt the Mids can stay with motivated Missouri. After being slowed
by a mid-season ankle injury, highly-touted 6-5, 240 soph QB Blaine Gabbert
was in a groove during November, throwing for 1406 yards & 8 TDs with no
interceptions in the final four games of the regular campaign. And all-world,
Plaxico Burress-sized 6-5 sr. WR Danario Alexander (49 catches for 820 yards
& 5 TDs over the same span!) is just one of the many Tigers who hail from the
Lone Star State. In fact, scouts report that Mizzou HC Gary Pinkel considers this
a key recruiting trip, offering free tickets to local prep coaches who want to
attend the game. And Columbia insiders also say Pinkel has taken special
notice of the fact that his Tigers ended up below Insight Bowl-bound Iowa State
on the Big XII’s post-season food chain despite beating the Cyclones in the
regular season and finishing above them in the standings. With a stout rush
defense (just 96 ypg & 2.9 ypc) spearheaded by fiery A-A sr. LB Sean
Weatherspoon, another Texan, the miffed Mizzou mentor should be able to vent
some of his frustration on a “ground-centric” Navy squad that still lacks a
dynamic aerial threat (only 71 ypg passing—worst in the nation).





Iowa State 23 - Minnesota 20—TGS insiders say Tim Brewster is in trouble
at Minnesota. The latest PR gaffe in the head coach’s stormy three-season
tenure with the Golden Gophers had Brewster’s agent reportedly floating a false
rumor to local media that Kansas had interest in hiring his client (the Jayhawks
didn’t), apparently in a failed attempt to strong-arm a contract extension out of
now-ticked-off Minny athletic director Joel Maturi. Despite a second straight
minor bowl bid following his disastrous 1-11 rookie campaign, the cocksure
Brewster’s cause isn’t being helped much by the on-field product. The Gophers
closed the 2008 season on a five-game losing streak. Then this year the
purportedly deeper offense almost completely collapsed after a foot injury
sidelined star sr. WR Eric Decker, who remains out for this game. Minnesota
was held to fewer than 300 yards in five of its final six regular-season contests,
and, during four games over that span, the toothless Gophers managed a notso-
grand total of just 23 points.(DNP...SR: Minnesota 22-2-1)
Prefer to back an Iowa State program that appears to be on the rise under new
head coach Paul Rhoads. The former Pitt defensive coordinator’s plucky
Cyclones persevered despite potentially debilitating injuries to starting QB
Austen Arnaud & star RB Alexander Robinson, earning ISU’s first post-season
bid since 2005. With the resourceful jr. Arnaud (13 TDP, 7 TDR) and the
versatile Robinson (9 TDs, 1058 YR on 5 ypc) now both 100%, no surprise if the
Cyclones generate just enough offense to slip past money-burning Minny (only
five covers in its last 16 board games).
(DNP...SR: Minnesota 22-2-1)






Oklahoma 33 - Stanford 29—The X-Factor looms large in this bowl.
Stanford’s playmaking RS frosh QB Andrew Luck is doubtful following finger
surgery after the regular season, with backup Tavita Pritchard (2 of 3 passing
TY) expected to start. Pritchard disappointed as the starter LY (10 TDs vs. 13
ints.), but he is a senior, and in 2007 he helped engineer the biggest upset on
THE GOLD SHEET records, throwing the winning TDP to enable the 40½-point
underdog Cardinal to topple Southern Cal at the Coliseum, 24-23. Luck is
scheduled to be re-evaluated the week of the game.
If the playmaking Luck is out, the question du jour becomes: Can RB Toby
Gerhart (1736 YR) still provide Stanford with its customary ball control vs. the
deep and athletic Oklahoma front seven, led by A-A DT Gerald McCoy and DE
Jeremy Beal? Despite their inconsistencies on offense, the Sooners were
usually pretty fierce on defense, finishing 7th overall, 7th in scoring, and 7th vs.
the run. Gerhart’s clock-eating rushes are needed not only to set up the Cardinal
passing game, but also to protect its depth-shy defense. Stanford gave up 34
points or more in 5 of its last 7 games.
However, Oklahoma has questions of its own. The Sooners were a robust 6-
0 at home, scoring 46 ppg. Away from Norman, however, OU was far from
brilliant, going only 1-5 SU (1-4-1 vs. the spread) and tallying only 16 ppg. RS
frosh Landry Jones, while admirably stepping in for injured Heisman Trophywinning
QB Sam Bradford, was sensational at home (62.1%, 18 TDs, 4 ints.),
but quite freshman-like (54.6%, 5 TDs, 9 ints.) on the road.
The Sooners fought through injuries virtually all season, including the loss of
A-A TE Jermaine Gresham before the season even started, and then Bradford
in the opener, not to mention several OLmen during the campaign. Just a year
ago, OU lost the BCS title game 24-14 to Florida, so the Sooners’ 7-5 mark TY
is quite a disappointment to them. As is a Sun Bowl berth after three straight bigpayday
BCS bowls.
Bottom line: Gerhart and fiery HC Harbaugh give the Cardinal a chance. A
little bit of (a healthy) Luck vs. the faster, deeper Sooners would give them a
better chance. (DNP...SR: Oklahoma 3-1)




*Tennessee 21 - Virginia Tech 20—Fascinating matchup between the oldschool
Virginia Tech regime and the brash new leadership at Tennessee. Frank
Beamer has been the head Hokie for 23 seasons (the second-longest tenure in
the nation behind Joe Paterno now that Bobby Bowden is bowing out at Florida
State). Several of his assistants—including recently-retained & highly-regarded
defensive coordinator Bud Foster—have been at Tech for more than a decade,
and the Hokies will be making their 17th straight bowl appearance. Not that the
storied Volunteers don’t have a rich post-season history of their own. But UT is
definitely in transition under glib new head coach Lane Kiffin, who’s been making
lots of headlines for his provocative comments and frequent run-ins with the
NCAA during his short time at the helm in Knoxville.
We look forward to Kiffin’s trash talking re-adding spice to the Vols’ Rivalry with
Florida (remember the glee Steve Spurrier used to take in publically needling
Phil Fulmer?). And Tennessee, which won 4 of its last 5 games, definitely
improved over the course of this year’s campaign. But still, are the 7-5 Vols
really capable of upsetting a Tech side looking to nail down its sixth straight 10-
win campaign? Most definitely. Maligned UT sr. QB Jonathan Crompton
blossomed under his new coaches, firing 21 TDP vs. only 5 interceptions in the
last nine games. And don’t be surprised if undersung Vol sr. RB Montario
Hardesty (1306 YR & 13 TDs) outduels more-publicized RS frosh Hokie
counterpart Ryan Williams (1538 YR & 20 TDs).