BEST BET
NAVY over MISSOURI by 5
Programs like Missouri do not measure themselves via match-ups against Independents who run quirky offenses. Navy measures itself by rising to challenges. The bigger the opposing name, the stronger the focus, the more fun the game is to prepare for and play. In Navy’s eyes, Missouri is big enough. Hawaii and Temple were not big enough. They were outright Navy losses as the favorite. Notre Dame and Ohio State were big enough. Those were easy covers as underdogs. Get the picture? Navy’s biggest obstacle in this match-up is that the Missouri defense might be better prepared to contain the triple- option via practicing against their own offense that has plenty of inside handoffs and quarterback runs in a system that employs liberal use of read-option misdirection. But in containing it, first downs can still be made that eat clock and force Missouri’s offense to be near-perfect when it has the ball, which could very well be for fewer minutes than its average of 28:27, not a promising figure for a team averaging less than 30 points per game that needs to win by a touchdown for its backer to earn bowl bucks. Missouri’s red-zone touchdown percentage isn’t much greater than its field goal percentage (43% vs. 39%). NAVY, 24-19.
BEST BET
OKLAHOMA over STANFORD by 21
For most of the OU senior class – they have experienced wins over Texas, Big 12 titles, and a BCS title game. What they haven’t experienced is a bowl win. They’ll be ready to check that box come New Year’s Eve. The energy is there, but what about the matchups? Stanford got a lot of pub this year, as they won some big conference games and had the #2 finisher in the Heisman race. Lost in the shuffle was a defense that often gets lost on the field. The run D is average and the secondary often gets shredded like Enron finan- cial statements. Oklahoma QB Jones will go to town with a now healthy WR Broyles and a bevy of backs catching passes in the flat. The level of athlete that Jones has at his dis- posal is far superior than what the Cardinal defense brings to the party. As for Stanford’s offense keeping pace – RB Gerhart is a load, but the Sooner defense yielded just 2.7 yards per carry on the season. Gerhart’s production will likely suffer further if QB Luck, who might play after having surgery on his finger this month, doesn’t play. Even if he does, the talented signal caller won’t be back on the practice field until December 27th at the earliest. His replacement, Tavita Pritchard, has playing experience – but that expe- rience equated to 10 TDs and 13 picks last season. There’s a reason why Luck is the #1 guy. OKLAHOMA, 35-14.
AIR FORCE over HOUSTON by 1
The Falcons come in losers of their last three bowl games – a big motivating factor for the
team’s seniors. How do they break the trend? Ball control. Air Force boasts the nation’s #3
ranked rush offense and they face a defense that ranks #112 in rush defense, giving up 5
yards per carry. QB Jefferson is healthy for the Falcons, who have scored 17 TDs in their last
four games after a mid-season scoring drought brought about by injuries to their starting QB.
Keeping Houston’s #1 ranked passing offense off of the field will be critical. The Air Force
secondary has put up some nice stats of their own, but they’ve faced only 287 passing
attempts on the year – the third least in the nation. To put it in perspective, Cougar QB
Keenum threw his 287th pass in the 6th game of the season. Look for the flyboys to keep
the ball in front of them and to focus on coming up and making tackles. This is the third time
these teams have squared off in the last 16 months – both earning close wins. No reason to
think the rubber match will be any different. AIR FORCE, 31-30.
MINNESOTA over IOWA STATE by 1
Coach Paul Rhoads says that senior DB Kennard Banks will not participate in any reindeer, er,
bowl game activities. Banks started 12 games for Iowa State this season, producing 55 tackles,
five pass deflections and an interception. Here’s a guarantee: somebody will start in his
place. “I read that somebody described our team as ‘relentless,’” says Rhoads. “That speaks
of a respect for how the kids played the game. We're 6-6, but I don't think we were better
than six teams personnel-wise. As a coach, that's pretty gratifying. Minnesota’s lack of running
game almost demands that they spend bowl practices and part of this game developing
an alternative package for the “running” quarterback, true freshman MarQueis Gray. "We're
going to try to wear him out pretty good [in the bowl game]," Brewster said of Gray, who they
are saying will play receiver and quarterback. "He's going to play a whole bunch." Nice job of
telegraphing intent to Iowa State’s defensive coaches. Meanwhile, the Gophers’ senior sack
dummy QB Adam Weber isn’t going away just yet and is grateful that ISU’s defense has registered
only 14 sacks, bottom-tier material nationally. The Cyclones have the best proven controlling
chess piece with RB Alexander Robinson, a Minneapolis native: Honorable Mention All-
Big 12, a 1,000-yard rusher with an average of 5.0 per carry. But Gray is a wild card, and
Weber with time can move the offense. MINNESOTA, 26-25.
TENNESSEE over VIRGINIA TECH by 1
In a game between two teams that run the ball first, QB play will be the ultimate difference.
Statistically, the Vols and Hokies look similar on paper – the biggest difference being that VTech
pressures the QB better than UT. That said, the Vols are a bit more balanced offensively,
so if the run game is taken away, QB Crompton has shown the ability to make more plays with
his arm than Hokie QB Taylor. Problem with Crompton is that he also has a tendency to make
the big mistake. Head coach Lane Kiffin has shown an ability to coach up his offense when
given ample time (see games with Florida, Georgia, ’Bama), so look for Crompton to fare well
enough. As for slowing Taylor and stud TB Ryan Williams, Kiffin’s daddy has done well scheming
against the non-spread type offenses this season and he has more than ample time to
prep for this ball game. TENNESSEE, 21-20.
Sports Reporter Newsletter 12/31
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