You wouldn't know it from the 9 combined losses between these 2, but this is one of this year's premier bowl matchups. For the Sooners of Oklahoma, this marks their 11th consecutive bowl season, a school record, with all coming in Bob Stoops' 11 years at Norman. Overall, this is Oklahoma's 43rd bowl game. The Sooners, of course, are used to more important holiday fare, as they've played in the BCS Championship game in 4 of the previous 9 years, including LY's 24-14 loss to Florida. They entered that contest with an offense which averaged an unfathomable 54 ppg, & included a record-setting 5 consecutive games with at least 60 pts, with all but 1 coming vs bowl squads. But the loss of '08 Heisman winner QB Bradford (shoulder) has obviously hampered the Okies' scoring capability, altho they did manage 65 pts vs defenseless TexA&M, & QB Jones a decent 58%, 2,780 yds, 23/13. Note that 4 of their 5 losses have come by just 1, 1, 3, & 7 pts. But note further that they were outscored 51-16 in their last 2 RGs. Defense, especially vs the run (#7) has been their forte. For the Cardinal of Stanford, this is their 1st bowl trip since '01, & they've been a true force, behind the power running of Toby Gerhart, who leads the nation with 1,736 RYs (26 TDs). But can he do it vs the Okies? And can he do it possibly without the backfield companionship of QB Luck, who had surgery on his throwing hand after Stanford's final game? He ranked 26th in the nation in passing efficiency (58%, 2,780 PYs, 23/13). Cards' 55-21 win at USC is an indication of just how improved this squad is, under the tutelage of Harbaugh, who inherited a 1-11 team in just 3 years ago. Many questions, so a dog call.
PROPHECY: Oklahoma 27 - STANFORD 24 RATING: 5
A pair of school records have been set with this meeting, as the Midshipmen of Navy appear in a bowl for the 7th-consecutive season, while, for the Tigers of Missouri, this marks their 5th-straight such campaign. Neither of the 2 have previously experienced such prolonged success. The Middies, of course, are among the elite teams in the land, in overland production. Over the past eight years, they've finished at #3, #1, #3, #1, #1, #1, #1, & #3 in the land in rushing. A simply amazing feat of continuing excellence, no matter the personnel. This season, they nearly shocked the collegiate football world with an opening day near masterpiece, at OhioSt. As 211⁄2 pt dogs, the Middies scored with 2:23 left, to pull to within 29-27 of the mighty Bucks, only to have the 2-pt try picked off & returned the distance, in a 31-27 loss. Ouch! Just 21-yd deficit, when the dust settled. Led by QB Dobbs, who set an NCAA single-season record for rushing TDs by a QB (24), Navy also prevailed over NotreDame at South Bend. Only Pitt took the Mids by more than a TD. But it must be noted that Dobbs is playing with a cracked kneecap. The Tigers, previous to '02, had gone to only 2 bowls in a span of 19 seasons ('84 thru '02), before their current success. Led by QB Gabbert (3,302 PYs, 23/7) & WR Alexander, who leads the nation in receiving ypg (137), Mizzou scored at least 32 pts in each of its last 5 games. And the Tigers allow only 96 RYpg (12th best), thus Navy will have to get overhead help from Dobbs, who is capable. However, note that in their final 11 games, the Tigers were minus 441⁄2 pts ATS, so hardly a spread giant. Not exactly the bowl Mizzou wanted, while Mids are thrilled to be here.
PROPHECY: Missouri 27 - NAVY 26 RATING: 5
A pair of annual powers meet for the first time since the '94 Gator Bowl, altho they would seem natural rivals, as their campuses are just 230 miles apart. For the Hokies of Virginia Tech, this game marks their 17th consecutive bowl season, & 4th in the Chick-fil-A. A win here, & Beamer's squad will complete its 6th straight 10-win season. Again, it is led by a solid defense, which has held 15 of its last 19 opponents under 18 pts, while finishing with the nation's 10th best scoring "D", as well as 13th in total "D". Offensively, they are led by frosh RB Williams, who has been near unstoppable at times, with nine 100-RY games this year: 1,538 yds (5.7 ypr), & 19 TDs. QB has also been a plus, with Taylor a solid 56%, 2,103 PYs, & 13/4. And he has run for 344 yds, to boot. Thus, a balanced offense, & a highly rated defense. Note that 2 of Tech's 3 losses came by just 5 & 3 pts. And check 31-7 & 48-14 routs over bowl-bound Miami & BostColl. But note also a 498-155 yd deficit in their season opening loss to mighty Alabama. The Volunteers of Tennessee went it without Fulmer, with new head coach Kiffin managing a solid 7-5 log vs a brutal sked, with 2 of those losses coming vs Florida, 23-13 (20-pt cover), & 'Bama, 12-10 (121⁄2 pt cover). A pair of 4-pt setbacks, with just one stinker all year (OleMiss). In that Alabama game, by the way, the Vols had a 341-256 yd edge. Thus a 428-yd edge for UT over VT in that Tide comparison. Vol QB Crompton placed 2nd in the SEC with 26 TD passes, & RB Hardesty has 1,306 yds & 12 TDs. Thus, this game presents many similarities. No bowl edges, as both are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 holiday contests. Just cannot dismiss that Alabama comparison.
PROPHECY: Virginia Tech 22 - TENNESSEE 20 RATING: 6
Rematch! For the Falcons of Air Force, & the Cougars of Houston, this marks their 3rd meeting in the past 15 months, & that includes matching up in this exact same bowl a year ago. Their first 2 games were near mirror images, as the Falcs (+2) prevailed during the '08 regular season, 31-28, while the Coogs (-3) took their bowl meeting, 34-28. In that 'Force win, the Falcons ran for 380 yds, but failed to complete a pass for just the 5th time in school history. And they barely held on, after jumping to a 31-7 lead. Coogs' Keenum: 4 TD passes. In their bowl game, Houston led 17-7 in the 1st, but AirForce tied it 17-17 at the half. And it was 31-28 in the 4th. Keenum: just 1 TD pass, but 2 TDs running. And note the Falcons' Tew with a school bowl-record 149 RYs. For the Falcs, this is just their 3rd bowl trip in the last 7 years, all 3 coming in the last 3 years, all 3 under 3rd-year coach Troy Calhoun, & all 3 in this particular bowl. Thus far, a pair of 6-pt losses (11⁄2 & 3 pt ATS losses). Again, they are a an overland power (4th in the nation), but an overhead also-ran, altho Jefferson did top 100 PYs in 3 straight games. But how about bringing the nation's top-ranked passing "D" into this contest? Just 149 PYpg allowed, altho it was 128 PYpg, before BYU threw for 377 yds in their regular season finale (38-21 loss). Enter the prolific Keenum: 5,449 PYs, 71%, 43 TDs, & only 9 picks. He has topped 500 PYs 4 times this season, leading Houston to the #1 "O" in the land, & the #2 scoring "O". Defensively, another matter, as the Coogs rank 111th in stopping the run. The Falcs have averaged only 16 ppg in their 5 dog roles this season, but will obviously top that mark here. But bucking Keenum & Co isn't healthy.
PROPHECY: HOUSTON 38 - Air Force 28 RATING: 3
From a 10-game losing streak to wind up the '08 season, to a bowl slot in '09. That's what the Cyclones of Iowa State have accomplished this season, under new head coach Paul Rhoads. For the Cycs, this is their 10th bowl season, & first since '05, when their Houston Bowl appearance marked their 5th such reward in 6 years. But just 4-8, 3-9, & 2-10 records from '06 thru '08. So quite a turnaround. This year, they've done it with a consistent, though unnoticed, overland game, which topped 200 yds in 6 of their first 7 outings. In games 3 thru 8, they not only went 4-2 SU, including an upset of 191⁄2 pt fav Nebraska, but also 5-1 ATS, by a combined 711⁄2 pts. Defensive collapses in 3 of their final 4 games, nearly torpedoed their bowl hopes, but a squeaking home win over 3-9 Colorado secured the "bowl eligible" label. So here they are. They are led by RB Robinson (1,058 yds), & QB Arnaud (57.4%, 1,799 PYs, 13/11), with LB Smith an all-Big12 first-teamer. For the Gophers of Minnesota, this marks their 9th bowl berth in the last 11 seasons, & 3rd trip to the Insight Bowl in the last 4 years. They a far cry from their glory years, in which they could run on anyone, behind such toters as Barber, Maroney, etc. Their spread "O" ranks just 113th in the nation, with their 98 RYpg ranking 112th. QB Weber has been their main weapon all season, but he is barely above 50% (51.6), & his 14 INTs more than offset his 12 TD tosses. The loss of premier WR Decker has put quite a crimp on this offense. The Gophers have dropped their last 3 RGs by a combined 70-7 score, altho it must be noted that those 3 foes were OhioSt, PennSt, & Iowa. Minny: minus 84 pts ATS last 16 games. Cyclones! PROPHECY: IOWA STATE 27 - Minnesota 20 RATING: 2
Pointwise Newsletter 12/31
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