[LLXC]

4* BEST BET
Air Force over Houston by 7
A rematch of last year’s Armed Forces Bowl when the Cougars held off the Falcons, 34-28, as 5.5-point favorites. This year Houston enters as a 4.5-point choice but we look for the Falcons to turn the tables on the Cougars from Conference USA. Our database also reminds us that bowlers off a loss in the same bowl they won last year are just 3-12 ATS while Military bowlers are a sound 20-8 ATS, including 12-2 ATS if they allow less than 20 PPG. Our College Bowl Stat Report points out that there could be some matchup problems this afternoon in Fort Worth for Kevin Sumlin’s explosive Cougars. Their leaky 111th-ranked rush defense, which allowed 213 YPG and 5.0 YPR, will have their secondary full with the Force’s 4th-ranked rushing attack. Even QB Case Keenum and his No. 1 ranked passing show may find the going tough against Troy Calhoun’s top-rated pass defense. They say good pitching stops good hitting and a good defense stops a good offense. Who are we to argue – especially when we’re getting points? The Flyboys lost the previous two Armed Forces Bowls despite scoring 64 points. This time they have the weapons to halt a serious aerial attack. With the Mountain West Conference off to a 3-0 SU and ATS start to this bowl season, we’ll look for some major ground control as Air Force rewards its 3rd-year head coach with his first bowl victory.

[LLXC]

Oklahoma over Stanford by 1
We’re not quite sure how “Big Game” Bob Stoops got his nickname but it must not be from bowl games, where he is a pathetic 4-6 SU and 3-7 ATS, including 0-4 ATS as a favorite of more than six points. ‘Luck’ doesn’t appear to be on the side(lines) of the Cardinal this afternoon in El Paso as their phenom freshman QB is listed as doubtful. Note: Andrew Luck’s backup is SR Tavita Pritchard, last year’s starter. That won’t stop us from backing Jim Harbaugh’s bunch as they arrive as substantial dogs with a ‘double-deuce’ offense. Pac-10 bowl dogs are a terrific 16-4 ATS, including 9-1 ATS versus an opponent off a SU and ATS win. In fact, the dog in Cardinal bowl games is a spotless 5-0 ATS, winning four of those games in straight-up fashion. The boys from Stanford also arrive in one of our favorites roles, as a bowl virgin (no bowl last 3 years) dog of 8 or more points. These virgins beat the spread at a 20-9-3 ATS clip. Our reliable database is certainly not new at this and it comes up with this cherry: favorites in non-BCS bowl games that appeared in the BCS Championship Game the previous year are just 1-5 ATS. It also points out that bowl favorites of seven or more points off a shutout win are 0-4 ATS since 1997. The clincher? Sun Bowl favorites are a lame 2-13 ATS. We realize this isn’t a ‘big game’ for the underachieving Sooners but we’ll look for them to once again ‘stoop’ to the level of their competition. Grab the points with the hungrier dogs.

Navy over Missouri by 1
We’ll look for another Military team to take the state of Texas by storm before the ball drops as the Naval Academy will be anxious to snap a three-game bowl losing skid. Despite the losses, the Middies have garnered the cash in four of their last five bowl games and we have no reason to believe that Navy won’t seal the deal once again – especially with Big 12 bowl favorites a shrunken 1-11 ATS off back-to-back SU wins. We mentioned earlier that Military bowlers are a prosperous 20-8 ATS. We can tighten that number to 15-5 ATS if we bring them in off a SU win. The Midshipmen, themselves, have been solid on neutral or away ground as a dog off a SU win, registering a 24-8-2 ATS log. They’re also high above sea level whether on enemy turf or in neutral territory after scoring 17 or less points in back-to-back games, checking in with a 20-4 ATS journal. While we commend the job Gary Pinkel has done with a Tigers squad that was ravaged by graduation losses, we must point out their stripe-less 10-27-1 ATS record as a favorite off a win in which they allow 100 or more rushing yards. With Navy averaging over 286 YPG on the ground, we certainly want none of that. Neither should you as we expect Ken Niumatalolo’s battlers to get back on bowl track.

Iowa St over Minnesota by 3
In the ‘Who Cares’ Bowl, a pair of 6-6 squads square off with absolutely
nothing at stake. Even the ESPN family of networks is treating this like a red-headed stepchild as it is passing it off to the NFL Network. The Foldin’ Gophers are making their 3rd appearance in Tempe in the last four years and it doesn’t appear as if they have much interest either, dropping each of their previous two bowling matches. While we can make a case for Brewster’s boys by pointing out that Big 10 bowlers are 15-6 ATS versus the Big 12, and that Minny is 3-1 ATS against this conference, we should also warn you that the Gophers were easily handled by Big 12 member Kansas in this bowl last year. You should also be aware that bowl favorites off a shutout loss are 0-3 ATS. However, before taking a ride on the ‘Cyclone’, be cognizant of the fact that Big 12 bowlers are a dizzy 3-12 ATS when tackling opponents off a double- digit loss. Iowa State is 3-0 ATS as a bowler versus .666 or less opposition but, then again, there’s that 1st-year head coach thing. With this game virtually a toss-up, we’ll let our database cast the deciding vote: .750 or less bowl favorites whose offensive yards per carry is less than 3.5 and whose team net yards per rush differential is less than zero are 8-24 ATS. Look for Minnesota to end their year on a losing note for the fifth straight season.

Tennessee over Virginia Tech by 4
With all the success the Hokies have had under Frank Beamer, we ‘betcha
didn’t know’ that they are an inconceivable 0-6 SU and ATS in bowl games off a previous bowl win. While that one still has us scratching our heads, the ACC’s 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS bowl mark versus the SEC had us digging in our wallets for a little scratch (Clemson eked out a win over Kentucky Sunday night in the Music City Bowl). And we dug a little deeper when we realized SEC bowl dogs are 9-1 ATS versus an opponent off a SU win and 23-5 ATS as dogs of three or more points in pre-New Year’s Day Bowl games. If these numbers hold true to form, we’ll be ringing in the New Year in a prosperous way as this one should end shortly before midnight. While we don’t need Dick Clark to tell us that Virginia Tech is just 2-7 SU and 3-6 versus the SEC since 1990 or that the Hokies are 2-7 SU and ATS as bowlers off a double-digit win, we will need him to do the countdown as we’ll be busy counting our cash. All this and we didn’t even mention that Monte Kiffin’s stop unit held four foes to season-low yardage. Amy Grant had us convinced it doesn’t get much better than a Tennessee Christmas but we’re sure you’ll agree this Tennessee New Year isn’t far behind. Seeing your man ‘Volunteer” some green on New Year’s Eve – now that’s one auld acquaintance that should not be forgot!!

[LLXC]

Overall: 10-5

3* = 0-1
4* = 1-0
5* = 1-0

[bornselling]

Hes on the same picks as lang, this scares me! haha

[bhunter]

These arent picks... just opinions. He'll probably only release 1 or 2 official picks.

[broadway6]

The Air Force is a pick b/c it's a 4*....the rest are opinions

I think?