ARMED FORCES BOWL @Fort Worth, TX 11:00 AM
Houston (-4½) Air Force (62)
If this match-up seems familiar, you are not mistaken, these teams met last season in the
regular season and in this bowl game. Last year Air Force won the first meeting 31-28 and
Houston won the bowl game 34-28 in two exciting games. The Cougars had their share of
entertaining games this season, with six games decided by a touchdown or less while also
featuring one of the highest scoring offenses in the nation. While Houston enters this game
with a 10-3 record there are some concerns on defense, as the Cougars allow nearly 29
points per game, almost double what Air Force allows per game. Opponents are rushing for
213 yards per game against Houston and Air Force brings a triple option attack that was the
third most productive rushing unit in the nation. Houston QB Case Keenum has thrown 43
touchdowns this season with 71 percent completions so he can take over games and get the
Cougars points in a hurry. Air Force lost five games this season but four of the five losses
came on the road and two losses came in OT. Only one loss came by more than seven
points, and the Falcons also gave undefeated TCU its closest game of the year. This will be a
classic rush vs. pass game as Air Force has out-rushed nine of the last ten opponents and
Houston has been out-rushed in ten straight. Those types of games generally favor the
rushing underdogs and Air Force has battled through a slightly tougher overall schedule
despite a few big name wins for Houston. This game is in the state of Texas but Air Force will
also be well supported in this match-up and Houston has been a bowl disappointment in
recent years with three straight S/U and ATS losses before a very narrow and fortunate win
and cover last year. AIR FORCE BY 3
RATING 3: Air Force (+4½) over Houston
SUN BOWL @El Paso, TX 1:00 PM
Oklahoma (-7½) Stanford (55½)
Promising young QB Andrew Luck is unlikely to play for Stanford in this game with a finger
injury but senior back-up Tavita Pritchard has made 19 starts for the Cardinal and is well liked
and supported on this team. While Luck brings another dimension to the passing game,
Stanford is a rush-first team led by Heisman runner-up Toby Gerhart. Stanford rushes for 224
yards per game on 5.4 yards per carry and the balance on the offense is exceptional, leading
to over 36 points scored per game. Facing the Oklahoma defense will be an extreme
challenge as the Sooners are allowing just less than 14 points per game with strong numbers
against the run. Oklahoma only won one game away from home all season however, losing
two neutral site games and going 1-3 in road games. Despite dominant overall per-game
averages on offense and defense, Oklahoma was out-gained and out-scored in non-home
games for the season by fairly significant margins. All four of Stanford’s losses came in close
games with final margins of ten points or less and only once this season was Stanford held
below 24 points. This is not the type of bowl game that Oklahoma is accustomed to being in
so the motivation for the Sooners could be suspect, especially with a few key players already
declaring for the NFL. Oklahoma also enters this game feeling good after a dominant finale
victory over rival Oklahoma State. Stanford meanwhile is very excited to be in the Sun Bowl
and getting to match-up with a storied program. This is the first Stanford bowl appearance
since 2001 and the first under Coach Harbaugh who has made it clear to his players and staff
that he is sticking around. While Oklahoma is accustomed to playing on a bigger stage this
time of year, Stanford should not be considered any less of an opponent, even though it will
be tough for Coach Stoops to get his players to think that way. The Cardinal played
commendably though a very strong Pac-10 this season and at times looked like the best team
in the conference. Oklahoma is also 0-3 S/U and ATS in the past three bowl games and
rumors for Coach Stoops and the NFL can not help the focus here even if they are unfounded.
This line is inflated based on the QB being out but Oklahoma has greater QB issues with
Landry Jones completing just 58 percent of his passes and single-handedly losing a few
games with interceptions. STANFORD BY 3
RATING 5: Stanford (+7½) over Oklahoma
TEXAS BOWL @Houston, TX 2:30 PM
Missouri (-6½) Navy (52½)
Missouri has four losses on the season, the same number they finished with last year but it
has seemed like a big step back. The Tigers did not beat any of the top teams in the Big XII as
the only wins over bowl teams came against Bowling Green, Nevada and Iowa State. The
losses were often ugly as well, losing three games by double-digits and also falling at home
against Baylor as a heavy favorite. Some of the rough stretches came with their impressive
sophomore QB at less than 100 percent and Blaine Gabbert is a promising player in the Big
XII that played well in his first year of significant action. The key for success in this game for
Missouri will come on defense however as the Tigers allowed 358 yards per game. The
biggest struggles came against passing teams however so this could be a favorable match-up
for Missouri. Navy was fourth in the nation in rushing, averaging 272 yards per game, going 9-
4 through a typically weak schedule. Navy actually closed the year on a 1-4 ATS run, getting
out-gained in four of the final five games as the defense showed significant vulnerability. Navy
could actually pass a bit more than usual in this match-up as there will be some opportunities
for match-up advantages while Missouri will likely lead an air attack as well. This could be a
higher scoring game despite a modest total and there could be big plays on both sides as the
secondary looks like a weakness for both teams. Missouri has been a solid bowl performer in
recent years and while Navy is often an attractive underdog the lines have come down on the
Midshipmen in recent years. Navy has lost three straight bowl games and this line may be low
enough for Missouri to sneak by for the victory and a narrow cover. The Tigers have had a lot
of time to prepare for this match-up as Navy is locked into this bowl game. MISSOURI BY 9
RATING 1: Missouri (-6½) over Navy
RATING 3: ‘OVER’ (52½) Missouri/Navy
INSIGHT BOWL @Tempe, AZ 5:00 PM
Minnesota (-2½) Iowa State (48½)
Statistically neither Minnesota nor Iowa State looks worthy of a bowl game as both teams
have been out-scored on the season in 6-6 campaigns that included a FCS win. Both teams
were also soundly out-gained on the season by an average or more than 50 yards per game.
Minnesota was a horrendous rushing team this season, averaging just 97 yards per game, a
far cry from the Mason era numbers but the Gophers did have to play a schedule that was full
of strong run defenses. The injury to WR Eric Decker can not be understated for the impact on
this offense but QB Adam Weber had a very disappointing junior year in his third year as a
starter. While Iowa State appears to be a solid rushing team, those numbers were built early
in the year and the Cyclones averaged just 13 points scored per game in the final five games
of the year, getting out-gained by at least 80 yards in all five of those games despite picking
up two wins. Minnesota did beat four teams that are playing in bowl games as they faced the
toughest schedule in the Big Ten which could account for some of the ugly figures. Iowa
State’s only win over a bowl-eligible team came in a 9-7 victory over Nebraska in a game
where they were handed eight turnovers. It has been a discouraging season for Minnesota
and Coach Tim Brewster and after a blowout bowl loss last season this is a great opportunity
for redemption going up against a natural rival although these teams have not played since
’97. Iowa State’s bowl bid this season may be one of the most unexpected in the nation as the
Cyclones were just 2-10 last season and then had its coach abandon the team for a promotion
to Auburn. Paul Rhoads will get credit for a great turnaround season and he has done a nice
job with the running game and QB Austen Arnaud but the 6-6 mark came with plenty of good
fortune and a very favorable schedule. Iowa State is thrilled to be back in a bowl game but the
Gophers should be more focused with eyes on a more successful trip to Tempe this season
after losing to Kansas in the Insight Bowl last year. MINNESOTA BY 7
RATING 2: Minnesota (-2½) over Iowa State
CHICK FIL-A BOWL @Atlanta, GA 6:30 PM
Virginia Tech (-4½) Tennessee (49½)
The three losses for Virginia Tech came by a total of 18 points and two of those opponents will
be playing in BCS bowls. Tennessee also lost to two teams that will be playing in major bowl
games and the Volunteers seem to be getting a lot of credit for playing close in those games
despite very few impressive wins on the season. Presumably the SEC schedule would be
tougher than the ACC slate but the Hokies played an incredibly tough non-conference
schedule facing SEC champion Alabama, Big XII North champion Nebraska, and C-USA
champion East Carolina. Virginia Tech has been the superior scoring team in this match-up
and holds opponents to just 300 yards per game despite that tough schedule. The Hokies
closed the season with four dominant defensive performances, out-gaining each of the final
four foes by over 100 yards and allowing only 35 points in those games. Tennessee gets a
reputation as a strong defensive team but eight times this season the Volunteers allowed 19
or more points. Tennessee only won once on the road this season as well and needed OT to
get that win while Virginia Tech has the advantage of having played at the Georgia Dome
already this season. The Hokies rush for 206 yards per game which should be a big
advantage in this match-up as the Tennessee rush defense has been burned in several
games, getting out-rushed significantly against every quality team faced. Virginia Tech also
should have big advantages in special teams play as Hokies teams often do, and Frank
Beamer has far more experience in these types of games. Lane Kiffin gained a lot of attention
in his first season but rarely was it for what his team did on the field. VIRGINIA TECH BY 17
RATING 5: Virginia Tech (-4½) over Tennessee
Nelly's Greensheet Newsletter 12/31
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