[LLXC]

Idaho over Bowling Green by 2 Yes, there is a temptation to call for a bigger Idaho win here, as the program cele- brates the first bowl bid in 11 years in what will basically look like a home game. The logic of the matchup simply does not allow for that, however, so the best that can be done is to take a team that will play like it is a BCS affair and call for the intensity to be just enough to escape. The logistical problem on the playing field is an easy one to see – a defense that rated 112th in scoring, 117th in pass efficiency and 117th in sacks, and has not had an interception since mid-October, is going to find stopping Freddie Barnes (138 catches, 16 for TD’s) and the Bowling Green passing attack a most daunting challenge. So how do they win? By controlling the ball for long stretches on the ground against a defense that was nearly as bad against the run as their own unit was vs. the pass – the Falcons were 103rd in the nation against the run, and 113th in tackles for loss, with eight of their 12 opponents get- ting better than 5.0 per carry. With QB Nathan Enderle healthy again the Vandals can also use play action to get the ball down field once the run threat has been established, and they escape here in a wild shootout that will bring plenty of enter- tainment value, despite the lack of pedigree for the programs. IDAHO 37-35.

Nebraska over Arizona by 6 We do not believe they have set the favorite’s role correctly in this one, especially given the anti-Pac 10 feelings that will be running through many of our bowl pro- jections, and that is part one of our equation for this call. Part two comes from the notion that if there is a game in a short price range in which one particular unit is head and shoulders above all others on the field, that group is more likely to find a way to make the game-turning plays to win it. That unit is the Nebraska defense. The Cornhuskers finished #2 in scoring, #3 in pass efficiency and #3 in sacks, and note that while many teams pile up their best numbers against weaker competition, the Cornhuskers stepped up big when it mattered most – they faced six bowl teams, and allowed only 14.0 points and 254.7 yards per game. In those 24 quarters the opposing offenses only reached the goal line seven times. The personnel, keyed by Ndamukong Suh, and the schemes of Bo Pelini, are simply that good. They get ample opportunities to control matters against an average Arizona offense, with Nick Foles not all that nimble in the pocket and vulnerable against this class of pass rush, and that means the ability to set up good field position for their own offense. Which, of course needs it, but that weakness is also what brings this favorable price point. NEBRASKA 23-17.

[LLXC]

**PREFERRED
*Toronto over Charlotte by 11
Stephen Jackson has pumped life into Charlotte’s offense, but the Bobcats still ranked among the bottom four teams in scoring averaging 91 points going into the last week of this month. The Raptors were a perfect 9-0 when holding foes under 100 points through Dec. 19. Toronto has been miserable on the road, but were 7-6 ATS during its first 13 home games. TORONTO 105-94.

**PREFERRED
Utah over *Minnesota by 11
Twice Utah has been a good-sized favorite against Minnesota and both times the Jazz lost straight-up. Jerry Sloan isn’t going to let it happen a third consecutive time this season. The Jazz have been idle since Saturday. UTAH 106-95.