[LLXC]

5* BEST BET
Nebraska over Arizona by 14
Annual spectators of the Holiday Bowl should witness something they haven’t seen in quite some time – defense. The last three NCAA postseason games in sunny San Diego have produced an average score of 46-26, but that won’t be the case this evening in Qualcomm Stadium as a pair of defensive juggernauts clash. The Nebraska Cornhuskers arrive with the nation’s 9th-ranked defense in terms of total yards and have been the stingiest squad in the country in points against, allowing a meager 11 PPG. The Wildcats also merit high praise on the defensive side of the ball, entering with the 21st- rated stop unit in the land while allowing a very respectable 23 PPG out of the wide-open Pac-10 conference. These two squads meet with completely different mindsets. The last time we saw Nebraska was in the Big 12 championship game where they were within a second of the title and a trip to a BCS bowl while the Wildcats were springing an upset at USC. You could make an argument that the Huskers might show up a little flat but we think 2nd-year HC Bo Pelini has this program heading back to prominence and will have his troops gnawing at the bit. Our database agrees, noting that bowlers off a loss who allow 14 or less PPG are 21-7-1 ATS versus an opponent with at least one loss on the season that is off a win. Our ‘DB’ also reminds us that Nebraska is a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS off a loss against Pac-10 opposition and a healthy 8-2 ATS as bowlers versus a foe off a SU and ATS win. Kudos to Arizona’s Mike Stoops for his 2nd straight 8-win season and first ever victory against USC but that win over the Trojans may prove costly for the 6th-year head coach: teams who beat USC in the final game of the season are a winless 0-5 ATS in bowls games since 1994. Stoops certainly has the Wildcats on the rise but we’re not fond of his 8-21 SU record versus opponents with a win percentage greater than .666. We’re also weary of Pac-10 bowlers and their 3-15 ATS mark as favorites versus an opponent off a loss or win of 3 or less points. Once again, we think the wrong team is favored in this next to last day of the decade but you won’t hear us stirring. We’ll gladly raise the ‘Holiday’ cheer and grab the point(s) as Holiday Bowl dogs are a solid 8-3 ATS over the last 11 years. Again.

[LLXC]

Idaho over Bowling Green by 3 The Spuds are making just their 2nd bowl appearance ever and their first
since 1998 when they beat Southern Miss in this same Humanitarian Bowl. Hey, at least they can boast of an unblemished bowl record! And if the latest MAC Bowl results are any indication, then the Vandals should keep that unbeaten streak intact. The Bee Gees head to Boise looking to halt a 0-7 SU and ATS conference bowl run (pending the results of the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl and the EagleBank Bowl). To the naked eye, current form looks to favor the Falcons as they enter on a 4-0 SU and ATS run while Idaho has dropped their last three on the SU scoreboard and their last five on the ATS scorecard. However, bowlers off three consecutive SU losses exact are 16-8 ATS. This tightens to a perfect 6-0 ATS if they have dropped those last three to the spread, as well, and are taking on a foe off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. To make matters worse for Bowling Green’s 1st-year HC Dave Clawson is the fact that bowlers who arrive on a 3-0 SU and ATS streak are just 10-25 SU and ATS versus an opponent off a SU and ATS loss. And let’s not forget about 1st-year head coaches and their novice 27-41-1 ATS mark in bowl games. The Falcons and their sieve-like rush defense have also not taken flight against winning lined opposition, posting a pathetic 1-13 SU and 5-9 ATS record (including 0-5 ATS as favorites or dogs of six or less points). The MAC will have four other chances to stop their current bowl woes but we have a feeling they’ll be singing the same old tune this afternoon in Bronco Stadium after the Bee Gees fall to 1-4 ATS all-time in bowl appearances. Grab the Vandals in this false favorite special.